What Does the Future Hold for Jeremy Kerley with the New York Jets?

There's no way Jeremy Kerley's time with the New York Jets could be near its end, right? The Jets just signed the veteran wide receiver to a four-year, $14 million extension less than 12 months ago. The team would incur $2.4 million in dead money and would gain only $200,000 in savings by cutting him this year, according to Over The Cap. 

Based on dollars and (common) sense, Kerley is a lock for the 2015 roster. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

The Jets have invested a lot of resources into overhauling their depth chart at wide receiver recently. They signed free agent Eric Decker last year, traded for Brandon Marshall this year and added rookie Devin Smith in the 2015 NFL draft. Add Kerley to that equation, and for the first time in a long time, the Jets have the feel of a team that could be aggressive through the air.

That's an important tenet of new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey's system. With an abundance of spread formations and a heavy focus on the passing game, it's more important than ever that the Jets have a lot of depth at the position. It's no coincidence, then, that the Jets have more wide receiver depth than ever.

Formation	Snaps	NFL rank
4 WR	586	1
3 WR	1,669	5
Shotgun	1,643	3
2 RB	616	24

With so much talent at the top of the depth chart, how many targets will be left for third and fourth receivers? 

Kerley has been one of the Jets' most reliable and productive wide receivers over the past three years. He has done so despite managing 137 receptions for 1,759 yards and six touchdowns since 2012, which is approximately as much as Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown posted in 2014 alone (129 catches, 1,698 yards, 13 touchdowns). 

That's not a slight to Kerley, but rather a statement on the Jets passing game. Kerley has the skill set to be an effective slot receiver. He has run at least 70 percent of his routes from the slot each of his three years in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

At 5'9" and 188 pounds, the Jets would be smart to continue using him in the slot—where he is most experienced and where his lack of size will not hurt him as much as it would on the boundary. Kerley is a niche player, though, and had 31 of his 38 receptions, 348 of his 409 yards and his only touchdown catch as a slot receiver in 2014, per PFF.

The Jets have more versatile options who could also fill in from the slot. Smith may be a rookie, but the 6'0", 196-pound Ohio State product has what NFL.com's Lance Zierlein describes as "electrifying foot quickness," "game-breaking speed" and the ability to be used both outside as an X or Y boundary receiver and inside as a slot receiver.

That being said, Zierlein also adds that Smith would sometimes come off the field when the Buckeyes wanted to run out of the 11 personnel grouping (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) and that he "can be frustrated by physical corners."

So, maybe he's not the total package from the slot. However, the Jets' willingness to nab him in the second round indicates some level of confidence that he could develop into a starter in the future.

Kerley's contract becomes more expendable in future years, but not for a while; the Jets would still have $1.8 million in dead money versus only $1.3 million in cap savings if they cut him next year. If the Jets wanted to designate Kerley as their post-June 1 cut, they could save $1.4 million this year or $1.9 million next year. 

What, exactly, is a post-June 1 cut? Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap explains:

"

The NFL essentially breaks up its salary cap accounting for bonuses into two periods with June 1 being the trigger date. When a player is removed from a players roster prior to June 1st all his remaining unamortized bonus money immediately accelerates onto the salary cap. To illustrate this we see how the Kansas City Chiefs gave Steve Breaston a $5 million dollar signing bonus in 2011, which was accounted as $1 million in yearly expenses over the course of his 5 year contract. When he was released just the other day he had only completed 2 years of his 5 year contract meaning the Chiefs salary cap had only accounted for $2 million of the $5 million paid in 2011. The balance of $3 million dollars immediately accelerates onto the Chiefs 2013 salary cap.

"

It is in that way that the Jets could find a way to get out from under Kerley's recently signed extension. What's most likely to happen is that the team will wait and see how Smith develops and whether Smith or Kerley ends up being the better fit for its offense. The Jets still have $5.4 million in cap space this season, which will roll over into 2016 if they don't spend it.

The only question is whether Kerley will prove that he's worth what the previous regime paid him—after all, it was former general manager John Idzik and his constituents, not Mike Maccagnan's front office, who signed him to that extension. 

Gailey has shown tendencies toward big-bodied slot receivers in the past (see the 6'5", 215-pound David Nelson) but has also seen value in smaller, quicker, faster slot receivers as well (see the 5'11", 188-pound T.J. Graham). 

However, let's not rule out the possibility that this proves to be Kerley's proving ground on his way to a bright future in Gailey's offense. There's certainly a place for a slot receiver in this system; with Decker and Marshall taking away the coverage over the middle, Kerley will have even more space to operate in the short window over the middle. That could mean a breakout performance for the Jets slot receiver.

Kerley has an opportunity to show that he's in the best interest of the Jets' long-term plan on offense. It's also entirely possible that Kerley will be gone in the next 12 months.