What Are Reasonable Rookie Expectations for New York Jets DL Leonard Williams?

The New York Jets were not in dire need of a defensive lineman. With Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Damon Harrison all lining up on the front line, the deck was already stacked in their favor. 

That being said, it didn't seem like the Jets would get an immediate return on the investment of the No. 6 overall pick, which they used to select USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams. With the recent suspension of Richardson for a violation of the league's substance abuse policy, though, there's an opening on the Jets defensive line that could be filled by Williams. 

Thanks to Richardson's behavior, Williams has an opportunity to contribute in the first four games of the 2015 season, but what happens after that point, when Richardson returns? What are reasonable expectations for Williams' rookie year?

Player	Pos	G	St	Tk	Ast	Sk	PD	FF	FR
Aaron Donald	DT	16	12	37	10	9	1	2	0
Dominique Easley	DT	11	2	6	3	1	1	0	0
Sheldon Richardson	DE	16	15	42	35	3.5	1	1	0
Star Lotulelei	DT	16	16	34	14	3	0	0	0
Sharrif Floyd	DT	16	1	9	10	2.5	2	1	0
Datone Jones	DE	16	0	8	3	3.5	0	0	1
Sylvester Williams	DT	13	4	14	8	2	0	0	1
Dontari Poe	NT	16	16	28	10	0	4	0	0
Fletcher Cox	DT	15	9	32	7	5.5	4	1	0
Michael Brockers	DT	13	12	20	11	4	1	1	0
Marcell Dareus	DT	16	15	32	11	5.5	1	0	1
J.J. Watt	DE	16	16	48	8	5.5	4	0	2
Corey Liuget	DE	15	13	14	5	1	2	1	1
Phil Taylor	NT	16	16	37	22	4	1	1	0
Muhammad Wilkerson	DE	16	16	35	14	3	2	1	0
Cameron Heyward	DE	16	0	10	1	1	1	1	0

Listed above, we have all of the players drafted in the first round over the past four years who fit a similar mold of Leonard Williams as players who would be a defensive tackle in a 4-3 or could play multiple spots in a 3-4.

As you can see, NFL teams have put a premium on finding disruptive defensive linemen in the draft in recent years. And this list doesn't even include all the edge pass-rushers (4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers) because it's not realistic to compare Williams to those players.

But what we find in looking at the above chart is a threshold for reasonable expectations in Williams' rookie season. Most of those defensive linemen pulled in about 20-30 tackles, 10 assists, three to five sacks, batted a pass or two at the line of scrimmage and forced a fumble. 

Specifically, the Jets defensive linemen have taken some time to turn into studs on the stat sheet. Wilkerson and Richardson were both within the threshold listed above, but both have developed into much better players over the years. According to head coach Todd Bowles, Williams' skill set is already showing up on the practice field. Rich Cimini of ESPN.com relayed the coaches thoughts: 

One more thing we notice from the above stat sheet is that the prospects drafted to be 4-3 defensive tackles are the ones who tend to get the most sacks, because of the more aggressive tendencies for interior linemen in that scheme. 

Williams could be an exception to that rule, though. The Jets' 3-4 defense is expected to be an aggressive scheme under Bowles, who ran a similar scheme with the Arizona Cardinals as their defensive coordinator. Cardinals defensive end Calais Campbell had seven sacks and defensive end Frostee Rucker had five; the two combined for 12 sacks, which is more than any other pair of defenders for the Cardinals last year.

Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is the closest thing we have to any kind of background on how Bowles might use his new defensive lineman. Cox was a rookie in 2012, Bowles' lone year as defensive coordinator of the Eagles, and he notched a career-high 5.5 sacks. If only Bowles had begun to implement a 3-4 scheme in 2012, he might have gotten even more out of Cox. In 2014, Cox ranked third among 3-4 defensive ends in Pro Football Focus' pass-rushing productivity metric.

Williams doesn't have the same skill set as Cox; Cox's burst off the snap is far superior to Williams', but Williams' bull rush is far more powerful to Cox's.

Source: Pro Football Focus

Williams has done his best work in run defense, according to Pro Football Focus, and he excelled in running situations but struggled when asked to rush the passer. He is, by definition, a two-gap defensive lineman. 

For that reason, Williams may not match Cox's early-career production, but his fit in the Jets' 3-4 scheme should make him a capable contributor from Week 1.

In that respect, Williams looks like a better fit as a long-term replacement for Wilkerson (who does his best work when asked to hold his gaps at the line of scrimmage) than a short-term replacement for Richardson (who is at his best when attacking a gap with burst off the snap). That being said, the Jets could ask Wilkerson to fill Richardson's role during his suspension while Williams slides into Wilkerson's role.