Playoff Predictions: Who Will Be Dancing in Miami?

Like the NCAA’s Final Four, it seems there is at least one surprise team that makes the NFL playoffs every year. Indeed, if you were to look at the last several years, there is always one team that makes a massive six or seven game leap into the second season.

Last year, both the Dolphins and the Ravens had those kind of seasons. The Ravens weren’t much of a surprise, having been one of the league’s elite teams for most of the decade. But the Dolphins? Even hardcore Miami fans weren’t predicting the Fins to go from one win to AFC East champs.

Most prognosticators kill themselves trying to figure out who that team will be. Or they get seduced by a team that finished strong a year ago. But in the end, the NFL seems to hold serve fairly well and there are actually few surprises.

My ultimate Super Bowl picks are not exactly ground-breaking, but again, it’s the way I see it. I’m not going to pick a team for the sake of being different.

One final note: In my NFC and AFC previews published on Tuesday and Wednesday, I predicted each team's record. I then based my playoff seeding on those records.

However, there was a slight problem. In both conferences, teams finished tied for a wild-card spot, did not play each other during the regular season and had identical conference records. What’s next?

Scoring differential and other such stats. I picked winners, not scores so ultimately, I had to decide the same way that the NFL does when all other tiebreakers are exhausted: I flipped a coin.

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AFC
North - Steelers (13-3)
East - Patriots (12-4)
South - Colts (11-5)
West - Chargers (11-5)
Wild Card - Bengals (11-5)
Wild Card - Jaguars (10-6)

(Jaguars beat out beat out the Ravens on the vaunted coin flip and the Colts moved ahead of the Chargers the same way.)

Opening Round

Colts over Jaguars
Chargers over Bengals

I have a good feeling about the Colts this season. Part of me thinks it might be the team’s last hurrah, but I think they will go out with a bang. I’m obviously partial to the Bengals, but I can’t see them winning a playoff game on the west coast.

Semifinals

Colts over Steelers
Patriots over Chargers

The Patriots seem to be almost unbeatable at home in the playoffs and Foxborough in January is a lot harsher than San Diego. Pittsburgh is no easy place to play either, but like I said, I have a feeling about the Colts.

AFC Championship

Patriots over Colts

I have a feeling about the Colts, but not enough to pick them to win at New England.

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NFC
East - Giants (12-4)
North - Packers (11-5)
South - Panthers (10-6)
West - Cardinals (9-7)
Wild Card - Eagles (11-5)
Wild Card - Saints (9-7)

(Saints beat out Vikings and Cowboys on coin flips)

Opening Round

Saints over Panthers
Eagles over Cardinals

The Saints have enough firepower to overcome their division rival. The Eagles get a little revenge from last year’s title game.

Semifinals

Giants over Saints
Eagles over Packers

The Saints aren’t going to win in the Meadowlands in January. The Eagles are rolling.

NFC Championship

Eagles over Giants

Michael Vick really has nothing to do with it. The Eagles win on the road and head back to the Super Bowl.

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Super Bowl XLIV

Patriots over Eagles

Patriots complete their return to greatness with a title over Eagles.