Best 2015 NBA Free-Agency Landing Spots for Houston Rockets' Josh Smith

Josh Smith is a free agent. He’s coming off a turbulent season in which he was first waived by the Detroit Pistons, then picked up by the Houston Rockets, with whom he rejuvenated his career.

Now the question is: Where does he go next?

The answer is complicated by a couple of things. First, which version of Smith would a new team be getting? The one who shot 24.3 percent from three for the Pistons, or the one who shot 33.0 percent for Houston? The one who bore the brunt of criticism for Detroit’s horrible start, or the one who helped Houston to the Western Conference Finals?

The other factor relates to the complications of his salary structure.

When they waived him, the Pistons used their stretch provision. That means they could get back a portion of what he makes in a new contract. According to Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ:

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If another team signs a player who has cleared waivers, the player's original team is allowed to reduce the amount of money it still owes the player (and lower their team salary) by a commensurate amount. This is called the right of set-off. This is true if the player signs with any professional team -- it does not have to be an NBA team. The amount the original team gets to set off is limited to one-half the difference between the player's new salary and the minimum salary for a one-year veteran (if the player is a rookie, then the rookie minimum is used instead).

"

The minimum veteran’s salary for the 2015-16 season is $816,482. The Pistons owe Smith $5,400,000 this year, as noted by Spotrac.

So, if someone paid Smith the mid-level exception, which is $5,464,000 this year, he would get to keep all of that. However, the money Detroit gave him would be “set off” by half the difference between his new check and the minimum, which is $2,323,759.  So Detroit would have to give him a total of $3,076, 241. In all, his pay for the year would be the sum of his new salary and what the Pistons paid him, or $8,540,241.

By comparison, if they use their non-Bird exception, all the Rockets can pay Smith is $2,492,400. Because he’s making less money, the set-off is smaller: $837,959. That means Detroit would still have to pay him $4,562,042. Smith’s total income would be $7,054,442.

Ergo, teams competing with Houston to steal him away must essentially offer him two dollars for every dollar increase of actual pay. And that might make him more reluctant to leave. He would probably bolt Houston for an extra $5 million, but would he for an extra million?

That might make teams reluctant to devote resources to recruiting him, particularly considering the other risks involved.

That said, there are some teams who have shown interest. And there are a few more that should show interest, but there isn’t a record of their doing so.

These are the best landing spots—whether they’ve been rumored or not—for Smith based on need and fit.

Long Shots

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There are a few long shots out there. None of these are teams should expect him to sign, but it wouldn't be surprising if something happened, either.

Miami Heat: Miami is a little thin at power forward and are looking to trade Mario Chalmers, who would be an excellent fit alongside Harden. So a sign-and-trade could be worked out.

New York Knicks: Carmelo Anthony will likely play a lot of stretch 4 with the newly acquired Arron Afflalo playing the small forward, but Smith is the type of versatile player who could fit into a triangle scheme. Think Lamar Odom with the Lakers.

Phoenix Suns: Apparently, less is better than Morris in Sun City these days. Having already dealt Marcus Morris to Detroit, the Suns are now looking for a buyer for his twin brother, Markeiff, according to Jordan Schultz of the Huffington Post. If they’re thinned out at power forward, they could come calling.

Portland Trail Blazers: They lost LaMarcus Aldridge and could use some help at the 4 now, even after they acquired Ed Davis. Smith is a serviceable starter, but the fit in Portland might not be the best.

Toronto Raptors

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The Toronto Raptors have a need for a defensive presence inside. According to NBA.com, last season they were only 22nd in blocks and gave up the seventh-most field goals within five feet of the rim.

Also, they lost Amir Johnson to the Boston Celtics via free agency. Johnson was their second-best interior defender based on defensive rating last year, which is arguably understating the value he brought to the team.

The Raptors run a free-flowing, open offense. They are likely to use the newly acquired DeMarre Carroll as their version of Draymond Green. But they could still use another mobile, versatile power forward like Smith to either play with (when they want to go big) or without (when Carroll needs a blow) the Raptor’s new acquisition.

The salary situation is a bit dicey, though. After using most of their cap space on Carroll ($14 million), Corey Joseph ($7 million) and Bismack Biyombo ($2.8 million), the Raptors are down to $4,139,189 in cap space, as noted by Daniel Hackett of Raptors HQ.

That could be enough to lure Smith away from the Rockets, but it’s doubtful.

Sacramento Kings

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The Sacramento Kings' offseason has hardly been the stuff of genius. As Kelly Dwyer of Yahoo Sports highlighted:

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We’re supposed to be too damn smart for this stuff now, and yet here the Kings are. The team has blown through several coaches and general manager types and most importantly all the goodwill needed to both keep the team in Sacramento and keep the punters in place after nearly a decade in the lottery. Vivek Ranadive has turned into your stereotype bad owner, Vlade Divac is now weirdly running the show in a move that wouldn’t even deserve treatment status in Hollywood and the team is shocked beyond belief that George Karl would dare act like he’s acted throughout his three decades’ worth of professional coaching gigs.

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Why wouldn’t a team that already signed Rajon Rondo to a $10 million contract want to add Smith?

And yet Rudy Gay is ready to recruit him, according to James Herbert of CBS Sports.

With a starting five of Rondo, Marco Belinelli, Gay, Smith and DeMarcus Cousins, what could possibly go wrong? Well, other than everything?

Vlade Divac is the only person in NBA history to record a 50 percent flop rate (totally made up stat) as both a player and exec. That it would be ridiculous to mesh that group of personalities together won’t necessarily stop it from happening.

The Kings don’t have the money left to lure Smith away but might be able to make a sign-and-trade work using Darren Collison’s $5 million contract as an incentive. However, with the signing of Kostas Koufos, this will be less likely to happen.

Los Angeles Clippers

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The Los Angeles Clippers have come up short in the offseason. After trading off backup center Spencer Hawes along with Matt Barnes for Lance Stephenson, they saw DeAndre Jordan bolt for the Dallas Mavericks in free agency.

And with the bulk of their mid-level exception used up on Paul Pierce, they are really in a bind. The tallest player on the roster is now Blake Griffin. If nothing changes, the starting center could be Glen Davis. After those two, the Clippers don’t have anyone taller than 6’7” on the roster.

This is bad, folks.

As Fred Katz wrote for Bleacher Report:

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So, Plan A, re-signing D.J, is out the window. Plan B, (Tyson) Chandler, disintegrated before Jordan even walked. Plan C (Kostas Koufos) chose the Kings, the organization with which no one wants to be associated.

Is Plan D even a thing? Has anyone ever even had a plan D? If your Plans A, B and C are so unsuccessful that you need a Plan D, is your Plan D even worth formulating?

"

Enter Plan D.

According to ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne, the Clippers are interested in Josh Smith.

Smith might not play center, but at least he has some size and could play the 4 while Griffin slides over to the 5, as suggested by Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk.

And to make the money work, the Rockets could agree to a sign-and-trade, with Jamal Crawford coming back. The move would address their need for a second playmaker.

Houston Rockets

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The most likely destination seems to be the Rockets.

The reality is that Smith found his worth in Houston because he genuinely fit there better than he ever did in Detroit, or even when he was with the Atlanta Hawks.

According to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle, “Smith has said he would like to return to the Rockets but has been a free agent often enough to know how unpredictable that can be.”

The biggest chance he would play elsewhere is if someone offered him a lot more money. That’s clearly not going to happen, as there aren’t teams left with big money to spend. It is increasingly likely that he will either stick in Houston or be part of a sign-and-trade.

The Rockets need a second playmaker, and with most of the good options snatched off the market, their best bet might be to trade Smith. But again, that comes back to what interested teams would be willing to give up to gain him.

There’s a chance he'll end up somewhere else. But if I’m a betting man (and I’m actually not), I would put my money on Smith being a signing for the non-Bird exception next year and staying a Rocket. Then, the Rockets can use their full mid-level exception on another point guard.