Is 2015 a Make-or-Break Year for Cam Newton?

Just last month, Carolina Panthers quarterback and 2011 No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton signed a jaw-dropping new contract that could pay him $103.8 million over five years and guarantees him $31 million for 2015 alone. 

In terms of average annual salary, the deal makes Newton the third-highest-paid player in the NFL. But what's truly astonishing about that sort of vote of confidence from the Panthers is that Newton has yet to truly prove himself to be an elite NFL quarterback. 

Player	Total
1. Aaron Rodgers	$22.0M
2. Ben Roethlisberger	$21.85M
3. Cam Newton	$20.76M
4. Matt Ryan	$20.75M
5. Joe Flacco	$20.1M
6. Drew Brees	$20.0M

Among the league's six quarterbacks making at least $20 million per year, only Newton and Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons have yet to win a Super Bowl. Wins and losses belong to teams, not players, but it's worth noting that the Panthers have won just a single playoff game during Newton's four-year career.

And it's also worth noting that among the 28 quarterbacks who have started at least 32 games (equivalent to two full seasons) during the last four years, Newton ranks 18th with a passer rating of just 85.4. You could argue that such a statistic isn't fair to Newton because he was a rookie at the outset, but he's never had a single season with a passer rating above 88.8. 

As a passer, he's been consistently mediocre.

Among that same group of 28 pivots, Newton ranks 23rd with a four-year completion percentage of 59.5 and 18th with a four-year touchdown-to-interception ratio of 82-to-54.

Of course, his impact is felt beyond those pocket-oriented stats. Newton has rushed for 2,571 yards the last four seasons, while no other quarterback in the game has reached the 2,000-yard mark on the ground. He also has 33 career rushing touchdowns, which among quarterbacks is already the eighth-highest total in modern NFL history.  

Quarterback	Rush TD	Starts	Rush TD/start
1. Michael Vick	36	112	0.32
2. Cam Newton	33	62	0.53
3. Aaron Rodgers	20	103	0.19
4. Peyton Manning	18	256	0.07
5. Ben Roethlisberger	15	158	0.09

But that playing style also has its detriments. Since 2011, no quarterback has been sacked more often than Newton, who has at times been hampered by ankle, rib and wrist injuries. He insisted to Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer this new deal won't change the way he plays, and general manager Dave Gettleman told Joseph Person of the Observer that the Panthers will continue to utilize Newton heavily as a runner. So he'll also remain a liability in that respect. 

It's been easy to make excuses for Newton. He was young and would need time to develop, he didn't have a lot of support on offense, he lost Pro Bowl wide receiver Steve Smith, his offensive line broke down.

But he's 26 now and entering his fifth full NFL season. He's supposed to be reaching his prime and will now be paid like a star quarterback at the top of his game. 

Looking at Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Otto Graham and Johnny Unitas were both MVPs at the age of 26, while Troy Aikman and Bob Griese led their respective teams to Super Bowls at that age. At 26, Joe Namath was already coming off a historic championship (Super Bowl III) and an MVP campaign. 

Looking at future Hall of Famers, Tom Brady had already won a Super Bowl, Peyton Manning was a three-time Pro Bowler and Russell Wilson (currently 26) is coming off his second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. 

Sure, guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner and Steve Young weren't fully established at that age. But those guys weren't top draft picks and didn't enter the league as starters. The reality is that Newton's got less tread on his tires than 26-year-old quarterbacks who spent time holding clipboards. 

To get a feel for where the precedents indicate Newton stands entering his fifth season, we took a look at what superstar quarterbacks have accomplished in their first four relatively full NFL seasons. The criteria: 

• Quarterback started his career after the 1970 merger
• Quarterback is either in the Pro Football Hall of Fame or is on a potential Hall of Fame track but is still active and/or ineligible 
• A relatively full season requires 10 starts

Quarterback	MVPs	SBs	Playoff wins	Pro Bowls	All-Pro	Total
T. Brady	0	3	9	2	0	14
K. Warner	2	1	5	3	2	13
J. Montana	0	2	7	3	0	12
D. Marino	1	0	3	4	3	11
T. Bradshaw	0	2	8	1	0	11
B. Favre	1	0	4	3	1	9
A. Rodgers	1	1	4	2	1	9
S. Young	1	0	2	2	2	7
B. Roethlisberger	0	1	5	1	0	7
T. Aikman	0	1	3	2	0	6
E. Manning	0	1	4	1	0	6
C. Newton	0	0	1	2	0	3
J. Kelly	0	0	1	2	0	3
J. Elway	0	0	2	1	0	3
D. Fouts	0	0	0	1	1	2
P. Manning	0	0	0	2	0	2
W. Moon	0	0	1	0	0	1
D. Brees	0	0	0	1	0	1

If you were to devise an evenly weighted points system containing all five categories above, Newton would obviously fare pretty poorly, ranking ahead of only four of the 17 other quarterbacks on the list. And some of the quarterbacks who didn't fare particularly well during those original four-year spans actually made major statements in year No. 5. For example: 

• Jim Kelly had a similar four-year start in terms of the above accolades, but Kelly fared better when compared to his peers when it came to raw individual stats. And in his fifth season (1990), the Buffalo Bills signal-caller was the league's highest-rated passer while almost winning the Super Bowl. 
• Warren Moon made zero Pro Bowls during his first four seasons with a losing Houston Oilers team, but Moon went to the Pro Bowl with the league's fifth-highest passer rating in his fifth campaign (1990). 
• Dan Fouts made just one Pro Bowl during his first four relatively full seasons, but Fouts smashed the NFL's passing yardage record during a Pro Bowl fifth season (1980). 
• John Elway went to just a single Pro Bowl during his first four relatively full seasons, but Elway won MVP while leading the Broncos to the Super Bowl in his fifth season (1987). 
• Drew Brees made just one Pro Bowl during his first four relatively full seasons, but Brees led the league in passing yardage during an All-Pro fifth season in which he led the Saints to the NFC Championship Game. 

Looking at those examples, it's probably fair to conclude that Newton has to make serious strides in his fifth season, especially with that new deal. But because he broke in young and started right from the get-go, there remains room for error. 

The most interesting example of a somewhat late start is that of Peyton Manning, who, like Newton, was a Pro Bowler twice in his first four NFL seasons. And while Newton at least has a playoff win under his belt, Manning didn't win his first postseason game until his sixth season. 

Manning did become an All-Pro in his fifth season but didn't start making an impact in January until year No. 6, which is also when he won his first MVP. Just over a decade later, No. 18 now has five MVPs on his resume. 

So Newton doesn't have to win MVP or a Super Bowl (or both) to avoid being slapped with a bust label in 2015, but if he can't improve and put together the strongest statistical season of his career while also helping the Panthers experience more team success, the pressure will mount considerably for what would absolutely be a make-or-break 2016 campaign. 

Again, those excuses are gone. At receiver, he's got a sophomore freak of nature in Kelvin Benjamin. At tight end, the steady and uber-productive Greg Olsen. That oft-maligned offensive line was graded by Pro Football Focus as the fifth-best unit in the league in terms of pass protection during the final seven weeks of the 2014 regular season.

Running back Jonathan Stewart is coming off the most effective stretch of his career, and a defense that ranked third in football during the final month of 2014 added first-rounder Shaq Thompson to the fray. 

The structure of Newton's contract doesn't tie him to Carolina for as long as you'd expect. The vast majority of his guaranteed money will come right off the bat, and a huge chunk of the deal will be paid out in the first few years. NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported that $67.6 million will be paid between now and the end of 2017, leaving the Panthers with a ton of wiggle room if things don't pan out in the next year or two. 

Barring a complete meltdown in 2015, Newton will still have a chance to become an elite quarterback in 2016. But if he doesn't take a major step forward right now, the Panthers might already begin to ask themselves if they made a poor investment in 2011 and then stupidly doubled down on said investment four years later. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon