If Barcelona and Paul Pogba Really Want Each Other They'll Wait for Next Summer

Perhaps we should not expect any sort of imminent resolution to Barcelona’s major transfer activity this summer, especially where Paul Pogba is concerned. After last season’s rushed, late spending spree—driven in large part by external circumstances—this year the club have plenty of new issues they need to navigate.

Not only are the club in the middle of presidential elections—an occurrence that inevitably creates a flurry of transfer rumours from candidates eager to gain public support—but they are also serving the final stage of the transfer ban that so motivated their spending 12 months ago, a sentence that further complicates the club’s pursuit of the limited number of players that might actually enhance a treble-winning squad.

Aleix Vidal, a former Barcelona youth player, has already agreed to sign on. His affinity for the club, coupled with the opportunity to emerge as Dani Alves’ long-term successor at right-back, means the 25-year-old is willing to endure the six months in which he will not be allowed to play competitive games for the Blaugrana (Barcelona’s transfer ban means they cannot register new players for action until 2016).

Nevertheless, such a situation is virtually unprecedented—a top player sitting out six months of his career through no fault of his own—and one not every other potential target is likely to be as agreeable to.

That is a dilemma any player linked with Barcelona will face this summer, most of whom will be unlike Vidal (who, after being released by Barcelona in 2002, and then Real Madrid in 2006, must have wondered if his chance to play at the highest level had already passed) in that they know they have plenty of top options.

Atletico Madrid midfielder Arda Turan is believed to be close to a move to the Camp Nou this summer, a special request from club manager Luis Enrique, according to Sport, yet it feels surprising that the 28-year-old would willingly sit out six months of his prime even for the opportunity to move to Barca.

A report from Marca claimed that Turan wanted to leave Atletico to earn more for doing less, but even if that were the case, Turan would be taking such a desire to extremes in moving to Barcelona now.

Emilio Morenatti/Associated Press

The biggest name Barcelona are linked with this summer, however, is undoubtedly Juventus midfielder Pogba. We already seem to have accepted that the Frenchman will leave Juventus sooner rather than later, if only because his agent Mino Raiola has reiterated it on more than one occasion.

Pogba signed a new contract with the Serie A champions in October of last year, an extension that even at the time was interpreted as a formal clarification of the terms of his eventual departure—in a similar way that Luis Suarez’s Liverpool contract extension in the summer of 2013 only paved the way for his smoother exit 12 months later.

"If it [a transfer] does not happen this year, it will be next year," agent Mino Raiola said of Pogba, according to Gazzetta dello Sport (via the Independent), just months after that renewal. "I want the club that buys him to believe in him and be willing to pay for him.

"If Paul leaves Juventus, it is for the absolute top. If it does not happen this year, it will be next year.”

Barcelona, the current Champions League holders, certainly qualify as “the absolute top.” Indeed, Raiola seemed almost to be speaking to the Spanish champions directly when he continued: “Paul is the only major star who is available at the end of the season. If you cannot take Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi or Zlatan Ibrahimovic, you can only go for Paul."

For various reasons, the three individuals mentioned are all players Barcelona could not sign. In an election year in Catalonia, Raiola is acutely aware Pogba is the biggest fish on the market. Similarly, all the candidates know the midfielder is the biggest name they can pledge to sign as part of their presidential manifestos. The difficultly for the rest of us lies in between, somehow working out whether the Pogba reports are motivated by election machinations or genuine and real interest.

On Wednesday, reports emerged (and were then denied by Juventus) that the two clubs had already reached an agreement over Pogba’s future following talks in Spain. "We received an offer of €80 million but I can affirm that Pogba will not be sold,” Juventus general director Marotta assured Gazetta dello Sport (h/t ESPN FC). Nevertheless, clubs do not usually hold in-person talks unless some sort of agreement is on the verge of being reached.

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For Pogba’s part, it is perhaps no surprise if the club he wants to join above all is Barcelona. Beyond his own personal ambitions (which he can surely achieve at the club) it is clear the 22-year-old wants to win major trophies. In his last competitive game, the Champions League final against Barcelona, he was able to see up close their particular (Messi-oriented) brilliance.

"We tried our best but Barcelona were better than us," Pogba told Sky Sports that night. "They had something that we didn't have."

Eric Abidal, the former Barcelona player who is now associated with former president Joan Laporta’s re-election campaign, perhaps made the most insightful comment this week when he said of Pogba (via Goal): “All players want to win, and Barca have just won the treble."

But the transfer ban remains a huge sticking point. Pogba is too good to sit out six months of his career (brilliant as he already undoubtedly is, at 22, he is still in the phase of his career where he greatly benefits from regular first-team action) and may even be putting his starting place in France’s European Championship team in some doubt if he misses half the season (alternatively, he might arrive fresher for that tournament). It would seem impossible, irresponsible even, to leave Juve now and not play for half a season during what is still his development phase.

He could instead move to La Liga in January, but how would the Champions League fit into that? Would he play for Juve early on and be cup-tied for the knockout stages at Barca, or sit out for the Italians for the group stages to preserve his availability? Neither eventuality feels right—and so common sense would suggest he would be better off staying at Juventus for one final season (adding a fifth Serie A crown to his collection?) before joining Barcelona in the summer of 2016, ready to go from the off following the Euros.

Then again, if a different type of euros is the priority, Raiola’s hand in negotiations will never be stronger than it is right now, able to use the presidential elections to ramp up the sums involved.

Hektor Pustina/Associated Press

Regardless, Juventus clearly remain confident they will have their man for at least one more season (featuring Pogba in their new kit promos this week was a bullish sign of that). If we are trying to find a viable, reasonable compromise situation for all parties, Juventus agreeing to sell Pogba to Barcelona next summer (with Pogba agreeing to terms in principle with the Catalans) would seem to make the most sense—giving Barca the player they want, Juve the transfer fee they want, and the player an uninterrupted continuation of his career.

That indeed might be what is being discussed, although even that has its complications. Juventus would not want such a deal disclosed before next summer, yet for the victorious Barcelona president not being able to announce the impending transfer would almost completely negate its political worth.

Perhaps that is why Turan is also being targeted—he provides the immediate boost, with Pogba the trump card to be played later. But, with the presidential elections not until July 18, we might have to wait a while yet to find out one way or another.