Huge Trade Packages That Could Ignite Chris Sale Blockbuster Deal
Don't hold your breath waiting for Chris Sale to be moved in a blockbuster trade. Their 2015 season may be kaput, but the ace left-hander is one of the Chicago White Sox's core building blocks.
And yet, here we are to ponder: Maybe somebody could make the White Sox an offer they couldn't refuse?
We're not the only ones pondering such things. Though Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe recently reported that Sale isn't on the block, Buster Olney of ESPN The Magazine and Steve Rosenbloom of the Chicago Tribune aren't wrong in suggesting that the White Sox need to at least be open to the idea, just in case somebody does come along and blow the White Sox's, ahem, socks off with an offer.
If that were to happen, the Sox wouldn't be crazy to accept it. Though they're not mired in a long-term rebuild, they're thin on talent to build around at the MLB level and in the minors. A Sale trade could fix that and put the White Sox on a path to becoming an AL Central power.
With this in mind, we're going to get a sense of just how huge Sale's trade value is and then run down a list of teams the White Sox could conceivably do business with, ordered from least likely to most likely.
First, a Note on Chris Sale's Immense Trade Value
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Here's why Sale is such a hugely attractive trade chip: He's really good, really young and really cheap.
You might have noticed the first part. Sale is working on a 2.87 ERA, striking out over 12 batters and walking under two batters per nine innings in 2015. He also owns a 2.80 ERA dating back to 2012, a span in which only Clayton Kershaw has him beat in the WAR department for left-handed starters.
Then there's the fact that Sale is only 26 and locked up for four more seasons after 2015 for just $47.15 million. It's because of stuff like this that Dave Cameron of FanGraphs called Sale "the most valuable pitcher in baseball" last July.
That was true then. It's still true now.
What it comes down to is this: In the coming years, chances are Sale's performance is going to be worth a lot more than his contract will be paying him. He's going to offer a ton of surplus value.
To give you an idea, FanGraphs' value system says that Sale was worth around $40 million last year alone, and he's well on his way to being worth even more this season. If we project forward, we can guess that Sale is going to provide at least $100 million in surplus value on top of his contract.
As for how that translates into trade value, we can take a cue from Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli of ThePointofPittsurgh.com (h/t Dave Cameron) and assume that elite hitting and pitching prospects—i.e., top-50 Baseball America guys—are worth tens of millions of dollars in surplus value.
If you've skipped ahead to see what this bold text is all about, here you go: Given both Sale's likely surplus value and the surplus value offered by elite prospects, his value is equal to several elite prospects in a trade.
Only teams that have some of those to deal and a need for an ace starting pitcher have even a remote chance of piquing the interest of White Sox general manager Rick Hahn. And if we assume that he's not going to do business with other AL Central teams, our list of potential suitors begins with...
New York Yankees
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The Yankees' rotation hasn't exploded yet, but it's definitely up there among the more volatile in the league. That's why the rumor mill hasn't been shy about connecting them to noteworthy starters.
If the Yankees are ever connected to Sale, it'll probably because the White Sox followed Buster Olney's advice about calling the Yankees and seeing how much they would part with to get him. And my, what a conversation that would be.
It would likely start over the best prospect the Yankees have: 21-year-old right-hander Luis Severino. He checks in at No. 17 on MLB.com's rankings, which makes him the kind of elite prospect the White Sox would target in a Sale trade.
But on his own, Severino wouldn't be nearly enough for Sale. So, the White Sox would probably ask for hulking outfielder Aaron Judge as well. He checks in at No. 56 on MLB.com's rankings, but ESPN.com's Keith Law has him rated much higher at No. 16. He, also, is elite.
Agreeing to part with those two would likely allow the Yankees to keep the White Sox on the line, but the conversation would then have to move onto deal-sweetening throw-ins. Formerly elite catching prospect Gary Sanchez would probably have to go, and the White Sox could also like the sound of speedy shortstop Jorge Mateo or slugging first baseman Greg Bird.
So, the Yankees would pretty much have to empty their system to get Sale. They might be desperate enough to do that, but here's thinking such a thing isn't as likely to happen under today's more level-headed regime as it would have been under the old George Steinbrenner empire.
Besides, the White Sox could arguably do better if they called the...
Toronto Blue Jays
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Just from the fact that the Blue Jays are getting a modest 4.37 ERA out of their rotation, we know that they need a starting pitcher. But we also know it because their GM has said as much.
“That’s probably more our priority,” Alex Anthopoulos told MLB Network Radio about upgrading his rotation. “We could use both, but if I did have to prioritize it I’d say rotation first, bullpen would be next.”
Sale would indeed be a proper upgrade. But if Anthopoulos wants him, he'd also have to empty the organization of its best talent.
The conversation with the White Sox would have to start with 22-year-old left-hander Daniel Norris. Despite some issues in the majors, he's still rated as a top-20 prospect by MLB.com and Keith Law.
Speedy center fielder Dalton Pompey is the next-best prospect in Toronto's system, but the White Sox already have one of those in Adam Eaton. As such, it's likely that they would push for more pitching.
That would mean Aaron Sanchez or the injured Marcus Stroman, both of whom are former top-50 prospects. The Blue Jays also have another top-100 pitcher in Jeff Hoffman and could offer well-regarded prospect Max Pentecost to the catching-needy White Sox.
If the Blue Jays were to decide to go all-in on 2015 and offer a package consisting of the above players, they might pry Sale away from the White Sox.
However, the White Sox could prefer what they could get from the...
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Houston Astros
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The Astros rotation has one true ace in Dallas Keuchel and an emerging ace in Lance McCullers Jr. But after them, their starting rotation is awfully shaky.
That's why there have been plenty of reports of the Astros seeking a trade for a starter. And as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported in early June, Houston's preference is a top-of-the-rotation guy.
Sale matches that description, and Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow might be able to get him.
With shortstop prodigy Carlos Correa presumably off the table, the best prospect Luhnow has to deal is former No. 1 pick Mark Appel. The right-hander's development hasn't been smooth, but he's still MLB.com's No. 25 prospect and close to being MLB-ready after recently being promoted to Triple-A.
After getting the conversation started with Appel, Luhnow could move on to two other pieces who could step in and help the White Sox right away. One is slugging outfielder Domingo Santana (MLB.com's No. 58 prospect), and the other is right-hander Vincent Velasquez (MLB.com's No. 71 prospect).
Since neither of those guys is a true blue-chip prospect, Luhnow wouldn't be able to stop there. Chicago's need at third base could help make Colin Moran an attractive throw-in, and maybe then Luhnow could move on to whatever B-listers catch Chicago's eye.
All told, that's two talented right-handers, a slugging outfielder, a solid third baseman and more. That's a deal the Astros might be willing to make that could satisfy the White Sox.
But maybe not as much as a deal they could make with...
Texas Rangers
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With a 3.84 ERA, the Rangers have actually gotten good work out of their rotation. But we know courtesy of Jon Morosi of Fox Sports that they've had "ongoing dialogue" with the Philadelphia Phillies about Cole Hamels, and that they're thus open to dealing for a controllable ace.
You know who would be better than Hamels? Sale.
And you know who could be able to get him? The Rangers.
Even if they took slugging third base prospect Joey Gallo off the table, the Rangers still have the pieces to keep the White Sox talking. Chief among them is catching prospect Jorge Alfaro, MLB.com's No. 36 prospect. Another would be slugging outfielder Nomar Mazara. He's only No. 44 on MLB.com's list but comes in as baseball's No. 12 prospect by Keith Law.
The two of them together would be a darn good start for the Rangers in talks with the White Sox, but they would have to sweeten the pot even further.
They could throw in right-hander Jake Thompson (No. 68 at MLB.com). Plus, injured shortstop and former No. 1 overall prospect Jurickson Profar would be one heck of a reclamation-project opportunity.
A deal between the Rangers and White Sox could thus see three well-regarded prospects and a former elite prospect heading to Chicago. That would suit the White Sox well, and the Rangers may be willing to do it if they see Sale as a key to contention both this year and beyond.
However, the White Sox may do even better if they haggle with the...
Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs have three quality starters in Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel. But they want more, and they want to go big. As reported by Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs prefer to land "a young established starter with at least two or three years of club control left."
Sale is one of the only guys who fit that bill. And if the Cubs want him, they could probably get him.
Though Wittenmeyer says the Cubs aren't willing to deal him, they might reverse their thinking with catching prospect Kyle Schwarber if Sale is the prize at stake. And he could definitely be a conversation-starter for the White Sox, as both Baseball America and Keith Law consider him to be a top-20 prospect based on the strength of his bat alone.
After him, the Cubs have two expendable top-100 guys in right-hander Carl Edwards Jr. and outfielder Billy McKinney. And speaking of expendable, the Cubs could sweeten the deal by offering shortstop Javier Baez, a former top-10 prospect who no longer has a clear future with the Cubs.
All told, a deal between the two Chicago clubs could involve the White Sox getting three top-100 prospects and a guy who was recently one of baseball's elite prospects.
That would be a good trade for the White Sox. But since the Cubs may not be willing to empty the farm to bolster an area where they're already strong, another possibility for the White Sox might be the...
Boston Red Sox
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The way they're going, even trading for Sale probably wouldn't get the 2015 Red Sox to October.
But 2016 and beyond? That's a different story. The Red Sox have a core in place to contend beyond 2015, and it'll look all the more capable if a pitcher of Sale's caliber joins the rotation.
The Red Sox could start talks by steering the White Sox away from Yoan Moncada (no. 7 according to MLB.com) and toward Blake Swihart. He entered the year as a consensus top-20 prospect and is just the kind of long-term answer at catcher that the White Sox need. And because the Red Sox have defensive wiz Christian Vazquez to fall back on once he returns from Tommy John surgery, they may be willing to part with Swihart.
From there, the Red Sox could move on to young third base prospect Rafael Devers, a fast-riser who began the year as a top-100 guy and is now Keith Law's No. 15 prospect. After him, the Red Sox could give the White Sox their pick of one of the organization's talented left-handers—namely top-100 MLB.com guys Henry Owens (14) and Brian Johnson (90) or Trey Ball, the No. 7 pick in the 2013 draft.
The Red Sox could then sweeten the deal with some throw-ins, perhaps offering the White Sox the opportunity to make something of former top-100 third base prospect Garin Cecchini or former top-100 right-hander Matt Barnes. There's also Joe Kelly, whose three years of club control allow for the possibility of making something of his excellent raw stuff.
A package from the Red Sox could thus be both strong and deep, and Boston may offer it for the sake of going for it all in 2016 and beyond.
One team, however, could simply be more desperate for Sale's left arm...
Los Angeles Dodgers
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With Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy out for the year with injuries, the Dodgers' starting rotation needs at least one capable body to go with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Brett Anderson.
According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, club boss Andrew Friedman is aware of this. And knowing that he's seeking to satisfy an ownership group that's gung-ho about winning now and has an elite farm system and tons of money to work with, the signs point toward a big move.
Or maybe even a really big move. Such as, naturally, a trade for Sale.
To this end, the Dodgers' advantage is they have two top-10 prospects to offer. One is shortstop Corey Seager, MLB.com's No. 5 prospect. The other is left-hander Julio Urias, MLB.com's No. 6 prospect.
Simply offering the White Sox both of them for Sale could be enough to pull off a deal. But if the Dodgers were willing to only part with one, they could probably still manage it.
Beyond Seager and Urias, the Dodgers have two other top-100 guys they could part with in right-handers Grant Holmes (79) and Jose De Leon (93). They could also accept that they really have no place for Alex Guerrero's bat, agree to pay what's left of his $28 million contract and hand him over.
Either way, the Dodgers would be giving up a lot to get Sale. But if it meant arranging a fearsome trio of Kershaw, Greinke and the Chicago ace, it's not hard to imagine them pushing the button and going for broke.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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