Chelsea Can Easily Afford a Radamel Falcao Gamble That Might Yet Turn to Gold

It is easy to forget that there was a time, and a time not even that long ago, when Diego Costa had to play second fiddle to Radamel Falcao.

Atletico Madrid’s greatest successes may have come since Falcao left the club in 2013—the La Liga triumph and Champions League final appearance arriving 12 months later—but the Colombian was nevertheless an integral part of the club’s recent ascent.

He was the driving force in the club’s Europa League final win of 2012 (Diego Simeone’s first trophy as manager) and similarly influential in perhaps the defining triumph of Atletico’s recent history; their 2-1 win over Real Madrid in the final of the 2013 Copa del Rey.

That victory at the Santiago Bernabeu convinced Atletico’s players that, if they bought into Simeone’s demanding ways, they could achieve anything. A year later, they nearly did.

On that day, it was Diego Costa (who had spent much of the season operating in Falcao's shadow) who scored the game’s opening goal, but it was a strike created by Falcao—who was almost unplayable all night.

"This is the worst season of my life," Jose Mourinho, the opposition manager that night, said afterwards (per the Daily Mail). "A Super Cup, a semi-final, a runner-up. For many coaches that would be a good year. For me it is the worst."

The Portuguese manager may have left the stadium that evening gravely disappointed (and he would duly leave Real Madrid that summer), but he clearly saw something in the opposition that he admired and respected.

Of Atletico’s starting XI that night Thibaut Courtois, Filipe Luis and Diego Costa are now working under Mourinho at Chelsea, while reports continue to grow that Arda Turan will yet join that cohort this summer. On Wednesday, another addition was effectively clinched, as Radamel Falcao’s father and uncle confirmed (via the Guardian) that a one-year loan deal for the striker to move to Stamford Bridge had been agreed upon.

According to those reports, a formal announcement will come when Chelsea’s pre-season tour of the United States gets underway.

“I don't know anything about (a transfer), but of course I know Falcao very well,” goalkeeper Courtois said this month (per the Daily Mail). “If he comes, great. That's the decision of the club. But he would be a very good player for Chelsea.”

Andres Kudacki/Associated Press

Falcao was indeed very good alongside Courtois at Atletico, but since then he has done very little to write home about, and perhaps that is why many wonder what value this deal holds for Chelsea (beyond keeping super-agent Jorge Mendes, who looks after Falcao and Mourinho, sweet).

The 29-year-old managed just four goals in 29 appearances for Manchester United last season, rarely looking anything other than ill-suited to the particular demands of the Premier League.

Chelsea are unlikely to be paying the same extortionate financial package that United forked out for a one-year rental of the AS Monaco player (early figures suggest his wages will be nearer £180,000 a week this time, with the loan fee a relatively nominal £4 million), but it is still a ridiculous outlay for a player when based solely on his recent achievements.

Mourinho, however, clearly believes he can help Falcao rediscover the form that made him so imperious during his spells at Porto and Atletico Madrid (when he scored 142 goals across four seasons).

That is the issue at the heart of the matter: Is what we have seen from Falcao in the last 18 months all he has left now or can he rediscover his Atletico heyday?

"If I can help Falcao reach his level again, I will do it,” Mourinho said earlier this month (per the Mirror). "It hurts me that people in England think that the real Falcao is the one we saw at Manchester United."

It will be a huge test of the Portuguese’s fabled man-management skills, an ability to motivate individuals that has seen him receive the highest of praise from the likes of John Terry and Frank Lampard.

Even aside from his notorious confidence in his own abilities, it is not hard to see why Mourinho sees this as a gamble worth taking. It is worth remembering that Falcao is only really a season removed from the devastating anterior cruciate ligament injury that ruled him out of the 2014 World Cup, a recovery that ate into the start of his 2014-15 campaign (it remains dubious whether he was fully fit when he arrived at Old Trafford).

While advances in modern surgery mean many (perhaps even most) sportsmen now recover fully from an ACL tear, the mental recovery still varies wildly depending on the individual involved. At times last season, Falcao looked like a player still feeling his way back into the game, a man instinctively evading contact in a way he never would have done before his injury.

Perhaps Mourinho is gambling on him simply needing that season to overcome that psychological barrier, just as Aaron Ramsey needed a few seasons to knock down the barriers created by his own (more gruesome) leg injury.

Perhaps in a few months we will look back and realise United were simply unlucky to take on Falcao during his own period of mental recuperation.

Alex Livesey/Getty Images

Tactically, Falcao’s arrival is more curious. As others have noted during the recent Copa America (where Colombia’s challenge was ended by Argentina) Falcao does not seem to be a player suited to a lone striker role or indeed particularly great in a pairing with a striker of similar instincts, an issue that Jose Pekerman struggled to get to grips with at times during the tournament (despite having Carlos Bacca, Jackson Martinez, James Rodriguez and Teo Gutierrez also at his disposal, Pekerman’s side scored just once in four games in part because of Falcao's awkward fit).

In that respect, many have suggested Falcao will not actually be a great substitute for Diego Costa in the system Chelsea usually employ, unable to hold the ball up and disrupt defences in the same way the Spain international can do.

"

Also: It has been 2 years since Falcao was any good at football https://t.co/qtuDJCrV0m

— Kevin McCauley (@kevinmccauley) June 26, 2015"

Perhaps that is not Mourinho’s intention, however. Perhaps, still thinking back to that Copa del Rey final two years ago, he is looking at the possibility of pairing the duo together in some games, confident they already have a strong understanding (and are suitably different types of strikers) and so would provide the Blues with another attacking dimension at key points in the season.

Perhaps, when Diego Costa is unavailable, he will not simply plug Falcao into the same system but use him in a different manner—perhaps by asking Eden Hazard or Oscar to play closer to him—that better suits his particular preferences.

Much will also depend on how Falcao adjusts to life in London: It is not unreasonable to wonder how much his ownership situation has affected his career in a negative manner. Just as he was one of the totems of Atletico’s recent sporting success, so was he one of the first examples of the possible success of their business plan—a player effectively rented, via a third-party investor, for a period before being sold on for a significant profit (in many ways Atletico have built their entire team on such a model).

The downside of that dynamic, for the player involved, is that he has little real say in his own career.

It is worth remembering how surprising Falcao’s move to Monaco in 2013 was (a step up only in the money involved for all concerned), a situation that has almost certainly remained the case in both summers since.

“It makes me laugh at times when I get asked why I didn't stay at a particular club or why I haven't moved to another side, as if the player has a choice in the matter,” Falcao said in 2014 (via ESPNFC). “On very few occasions can the player make the decision to move from one club or to another. There have been occasions when I've not been able to live in the way I want, many times. I want to go to a particular club and in finally I end up at another.”

That would rather suggest that, given the option, Falcao would have preferred to remain in La Liga (when he left Atletico, Real Madrid were reportedly also interested). If his dubious suitability for the Premier League is matched by a more general dislike for life in England, that might be a combination even Mourinho is unable to overcome.

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

Nevertheless, if you remove the sums involved from the equation (and even they are not that stratospheric for such a club), Falcao’s signing is a calculated risk with significant upside and only moderate risk. At a very basic level, all Mourinho is asking of Falcao is to be a replacement for Didier Drogba as the club’s second or third striker, a role he can fulfil even at his current, inferior level (Drogba was more cheerleader than actual contributor last season).

If that is all Chelsea ultimately get, like United they can wave goodbye after a season with far fewer regrets.

In an ideal scenario, however, Mourinho clearly sees Falcao rediscovering his old swagger and becoming both a foil and viable alternative to Diego Costa, giving the side different nuances and creating a whole new set of issues for opposition defences. If that happened, that would improve Chelsea nearly as dramatically as the signing of Costa did a summer ago.

If that happened, suddenly the sums involved would look like a bargain.