Realistic Expectations for Justin Anderson's Rookie Season with Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks haven't been a rookie-friendly franchise lately, but that might change with Justin Anderson joining the team next season.

The Mavs surprisingly decided against addressing their need at the point guard position in the 2015 NBA draft, opting to spend the 21st pick on the 21-year-old, 6'6" Anderson instead. Tyus Jones, a decent option at the point, was still on the board at that point. Still, Anderson was a relatively safe pick and one that could pay immediate dividends.

Even though rookies tend to have minimal impacts on playoff-contending rosters, Anderson has the tools to fight for a regular spot in head coach Rick Carlisle's rotation as soon as next year.

The Mavericks' success or misfortune in free agency will determine how much they will need out of their rookie, but he should receive a legitimate chance to contribute. While Dallas general manager Donnie Nelson has already praised Anderson's defense, he reiterated this fact.

"I think that's kind of the calling card he's got right now," Nelson said on The Afternoon Show with Cowlishaw and Mosley (h/t the Dallas Morning News). "Right now, the opportunity to step right in and provide meaningful minutes really depends on what happens in free agency. But he's got all the right stuff to see those minutes and opportunities early on."

Jae Crowder earned himself 17.3 minutes per game in his rookie campaign under Carlisle, who has always prioritized winning over developing talent. If a player is NBA-ready, willing to listen and embraces a minor role, there is a chance to crack the Mavericks' rotation.

It's important to keep expectations in check, but Anderson has shown enough in his college career to carry some intrigue into his debut season.

A Versatile Wing

Dallas will be chasing after superstars this summer yet again, and it's unclear how many minutes will be up for grabs for Anderson. If the Mavs land a big free agent, they probably won't be able to keep Al-Farouq Aminu. If that is the case, the role of the scrappy wing off the bench will likely fall on Anderson's shoulders.

There is absolutely no doubt that Carlisle will try to erase Dallas' ugly offense under Rajon Rondo's brief tenure from his memory. The lack of spacing caused the coach to constantly call plays, and the Mavs were painful to watch. 

Instead, the Mavericks will look to revert to the free-flowing motion offense they ran at the beginning of last year. With that in mind, Anderson fits the system.

He has improved his three-point shot immensely. After connecting on just 29.4 percent of his long-range attempts in his sophomore year, he nailed 45.2 percent of his threes last season. It's a massive jump, but it was not fluke.

There is some visible improvement in Anderson's shot mechanics. He gathers the ball well, goes up in a straight line and has a consistent point of release. He might not reach the incredible figure of last year as an NBA rookie, but he should be able to shoot around 38 percent from deep with relative ease.

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His development as a spot-up shooter is crucial for his career, especially considering where he landed. The Mavs offense operates through constant pick-and-rolls and drive-and-kicks. With Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki bending the defense, Anderson should be able to feast on open looks

Anderson's ball-handling skills are still shaky, especially with his off-hand, and he can cough the ball up when pressured. But Dallas won't be putting the ball in his hands, then expecting miracles. Anderson will, however, be able to pump-fake defenders out of the way and explode to the rim.

If Anderson is allowed to attack open space, he can power through contact with relative ease. Aminu had a chance to do similar things last year, and Anderson's superior shooting will give him an even bigger edge in those situations.

That will likely be the extent of his offensive role in his rookie year. He will be relied upon to knock down open looks, swiftly move the ball and be aggressive in advantageous spots. What should really help him solidify a role is his defense, and that makes him kind of a mixture between Richard Jefferson and Aminu.

Much like Aminu, Anderson has all the physical tools to be a lock-down defender. He has a 6'11" wing span, has a bulky frame and possesses excellent lateral movement. He is quick enough to stay in front of guards and strong enough to body up some NBA small forwards, as well.

He will have to learn the defensive schemes of Carlisle, but he should be able to be a plus defender regardless. Dallas desperately needed a three-and-D wing last season, and now it has one. His ability to guard multiple positions will also allow the Mavericks to switch more on pick-and-rolls, which Nowitzki believes will help him earn minutes.

"I think he fits right in with that mold where he can switch everything and stay in front of people and guard multiple positions," Nowitzki said, according to Mike Fisher of Scout.com. "He can get out on a break and run and finish with the best of them. So, I think, like I said, if he works hard and stays injury free, he can contribute right away this season." 

Above everything else, Anderson appeared to be a hard-working, well-spoken and mature young man in his pre-draft workout and interview. He knows his limitations and should embrace his role, whatever it ends up being.

Rookie Mistakes

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Anderson might be one of the most NBA-ready players to be drafted this summer, but carving out a spot in the rotation won't be easy. There is a reason rookies, even the supremely talented ones with superstar potential, are rarely overly impactful. It takes time to adjust to the professional level, and most hit the rookie wall at some point during their debut campaigns.

Those who go to bad teams out of the draft are often given the time and patience to work through the errors in order to speed up the learning curve. Players who land on playoff-caliber rosters rarely share the same luxury. Instead, Anderson will earn playing time the hard way, which should help him get rid of any bad habits he may have.

Anderson's skill set should earn him minutes, but Carlisle doesn't sacrifice wins. He doesn't have the patience to let a rookie mess up on back-to-back possessions without taking him out of the game, nor should he. Competing in a cutthroat Western Conference requires consistent excellence, which means Anderson will need to get off to a solid start and prove his worth.

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The most recent example of this would be Dwight Powell, who had a very successful run of games in the middle of last season. He showed flashes of an intriguing offensive game and put together some effective stints but eventually fell out of favor when veterans returned from injury.

Anderson might get some minutes by default if Dallas fails to add depth to its backcourt, but the only way to move up in the rotation is to outperform his peers.

It's hard to speculate how much time Anderson will be given. Dallas could re-sign J.J. Barea and fill its backcourt with two brand-new starters. That would mean Barea, Devin Harris and Raymond Felton would already be battling for playing time. Anderson could be bumped to the 3 in small lineups, though, which would give him some more breathing room.

Anderson landed in a good spot to start his career. He will be around a team full of veterans who want to win now, and competing in such an environment is great. He will have to work for his playing time and won't be gifted anything, but he'll have a fair opportunity to contribute.

Whether or not he thrives next season will depend on Dallas' free-agency signings, but Anderson's personality and skill set should allow him to have a long NBA career.

You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis