Predicting the Last 5 In, Last 5 out for Indianapolis Colts' Final 53-Man Roster

It's almost July, which means it's almost time to begin thinking about training camp.

The biggest training camp activity, of course, is projecting the final 53-man roster to come prior to the regular season beginning. For the Indianapolis Colts, the vast majority of last year's AFC Championship Game-reaching team is returning, but there will be a few new faces.

With a few key battles across the roster, especially in reserve roles, there are still quite a few possibilities for the bottom half of the Colts roster. However, there are a few tendencies that we can zero in on, based on the last few seasons' final 53-man roster:

• The Colts almost always keep 25 offensive players and 25 defensive players, with the three final spots for a kicker, punter and long snapper.
• Generally, the Colts keep at least nine linebackers (inside and outside), nine secondary players and nine offensive linemen (often 10 of the latter).
• Four running backs, not including a fullback, has been the norm for the Colts under head coach Chuck Pagano. A fullback is often also included, but it's worth noting that the Colts started using a fullback less and less as the season wore down last season.
• Two quarterbacks is plenty for Indianapolis. The team sometimes keeps the third quarterback on the practice squad.

With principles like that in mind, we'll start working our way into some roster predictions over the coming months. Today, we look at 10 players that are right on the edge of the roster, predicting who the last five in and last five out will be.

In: RB Zurlon Tipton

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If the Colts do keep four halfbacks on the roster, the fourth spot should be the only one that is up for contention. With Dan Herron returning, Frank Gore signing a high-profile contract this offseason and the Colts drafting Josh Robinson out of Mississippi State, the Colts have three pseudo-locks to make the roster.

The fourth back to make the roster should be returning Zurlon Tipton.

Not only was Tipton a key special teamer for the 2014 Colts, an important role for the fourth running back, but he can also play fullback. At 230 pounds, he's not quite as big as the traditional fullback, but he's significantly thicker than the other backs on the roster.

Tipton did run a few snaps as a fullback down the stretch last season, and while TE/FB/H-back Jack Doyle is the main blocking fullback, Tipton could be an option if the Colts wanted a bit more speed and versatility on the field. Tipton worked his way up the depth chart last season, and while his position on the roster isn't guaranteed, he has a good chance of returning with his skills and abilities as a special teamer.

Out: RB Vick Ballard

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If Zurlon Tipton makes the roster as the fourth halfback, that likely means Vick Ballard is out.

It's a tough spot for Ballard, who has one of the most sympathetic stories of any promising young Colts player in years. During his rookie year, Ballard was a reliable, if not exceptional performer amid much chaos in 2012.

But after one game in the 2013 season, Ballard tore his ACL in a noncontact drill, ending his season. Less than a year later, Ballard tore his Achilles tendon and would be forced to spend the season on the injured reserve list yet again.

There is a lot of fan sentiment in Ballard's camp, and the coaches love him as a member of the locker room. But back-to-back season-ending leg injuries is incredibly difficult to overcome, and the odds are not in Ballard's favor.

In: WR Griff Whalen

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With the Colts bringing in so many receivers this offseason, it seemed that Griff Whalen's days on the roster were numbered. Andre Johnson took the role of possession receiver in Indianapolis, Phillip Dorsett takes the slot position and Duron Carter could very well slide in as the young, developmental receiver on the back end.

But if the Colts forgo keeping a fullback on the roster, the team could keep six receivers, rather than five. The Colts have the top five receivers all but set in Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Dorsett, Donte Moncrief and Carter. The sixth spot, if there is one, likely comes down to Whalen and free-agent signing Vincent Brown.

Whalen has an advantage in the fact that he's proved himself as a special teamer and as a last-ditch option as a possession receiver.

As a former college roommate of Andrew Luck and a veteran of Pep Hamilton's offense, Whalen has a leg up on the competition. It won't be enough to make the roster if the Colts keep just five receivers, but that sixth spot could be his perfect solution.

Out: OG Donald Thomas

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Just like with Vick Ballard, it's difficult to forecast positive things ahead for Donald Thomas.

Like Ballard, Thomas has seen two seasons slip away with lower-body injuries. For Thomas, it was tearing the same quad in consecutive seasons.

Thomas has talent, sure. But he was never the preferred starter for a team until he came to Indianapolis' M.A.S.H. unit in 2013, and we didn't have enough of a sample size in Indianapolis to see how the transition would affect him. Sure, it would be great to give him more time to see if he can recover, but what are the chances it works out?

The Colts have more depth on the offensive line than they've ever had in the Pagano era, and that doesn't bode well for Thomas. The Colts have more promising bodies than a broken-down 30-year-old (which Thomas will be in September).

In: OG Ben Heenan

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One of the more promising depth bodies on the interior for Indianapolis is Ben Heenan, former CFL No. 1 overall pick in 2012.

Heenan was highly sought after by a few NFL teams this offseason, but he chose Indianapolis due to a good deal and favorable circumstances. Russ Lande, a former NFL scout and current U.S. College Scouting Director for the Montreal Alouettes, had glowing things to say about Heenan, per Aaron Wilson of The National Football Post:

"

I've heard his workouts have been very good. He's probably a guard in the NFL. Smart kid, real tough very powerful, excellent technique, can bend his knees, not a real good athlete, not quick-footed so he won’t play tackle in the NFL. When it comes to size, speed, strength and ability to play at the next level, he's ready to make the transition to the NFL.

"

Those "more promising bodies" than Donald Thomas?

Heenan is one of them.

Out: OLB Cam Johnson

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There have been a lot of positive things said about Cam Johnson so far this offseason.

Whether it was getting his name dropped from teammates or coaches, Johnson has been the subject of more than a few offseason moments of praise, which is great to see from a player who has been stuck on injured reserve in recent years.

But unfortunately for Johnson, it seems like the only way he'll make the roster is in case of injury.

The Colts have five other outside linebackers that, if healthy, seem to be sure locks to make the roster: Robert Mathis, Trent Cole, Erik Walden, Jonathan Newsome and Bjoern Werner.

Werner has disappointed, but he's only been in the league for two years, and it's difficult to see the Colts cutting him for someone like Johnson. Walden hasn't had the pass-rushing presence that the Colts would like, but he's still a talented, versatile player, one who was their best edge player last season.

So unless Mathis' recovery takes longer than expected and he starts the season on the PUP list or IR, Johnson might just be out of luck.

In: ILB Amarlo Herrera

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With the Colts stocking so much talent at outside linebacker, the team will likely keep fewer inside linebackers.

Keeping more than nine linebackers is rare for Indianapolis, which would only leave four spots for the inside linebackers. Fortunately for Amarlo Herrera, a sixth-round pick out of Georgia, the Colts only have three linebackers penciled into spots for 2015.

There are the starters from 2014, D'Qwell Jackson and Jerrell Freeman, and recently signed Nate Irving. The fourth spot is up for grabs, but for now, Herrera has to be the favorite.

Herrera was an incredibly productive linebacker in the SEC last season. That kind of production is valuable, especially how it relates to Herrera's potential production on special teams. Depth linebackers are most valuable on special teams, and Herrera should be able to contribute there right away while potentially growing for the future.

Out: ILB Henoc Muamba

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If Herrera wins the job, second-year CFL import Henoc Muamba could be out of a roster spot.

Now, this should be a pretty good battle to watch. Muamba knows the Colts locker room and has a year of experience, but Herrera has more potential as a future piece. Does Muamba's year of experience outweigh the Colts' belief in Herrera's future?

Well, looking at Muamba's track last year doesn't necessarily bode well.

The 26-year-old had just three special teams tackles last season, including two missed tackles, per Pro Football Focus. Muamba also received just 23 snaps on defense, with 20 of those coming in the first half of the season.

If Muamba had shown more last season, he might get the edge. Either way, it will be close. But for now I give the edge to the player that the team just spent a draft pick on.

In: CB/S Donald Celiscar

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With the Colts' top three cornerbacks, the team has three returners for the third consecutive season. Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler have been the top guys in Indianapolis for the last two seasons, and it's worked out well for the team, for the most part.

Then, the Colts added cornerback D'Joun Smith in the third round of this year's draft.

But the fifth cornerback spot is still open, and that's where former Western Michigan cornerback Donald Celiscar comes into play.

Celiscar is a tough cornerback, one well-versed in press-man coverage that would be so critical in Indianapolis. His athleticism is nothing to write home about, but he plays the ball with enough instinct to make up for it.

Another big positive for Celiscar is his ability to play safety in a pinch. He has some experience at safety, and the Colts are always looking for depth at the position.

Out: S Winston Guy

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One of the players on the Colts' practice squad last season, Winston Guy went from starter in Jacksonville to on the street after just a few weeks before eventually landing with the Colts.

Guy is an athletically built safety with some playmaking ability, but at 25, he's quickly moving past the age when teams invest years into development. The Colts' fourth safety spot is largely reserved for special teams, not a key defensive player.

This hints at guys like Colt Anderson and Dewey McDonald being the front-runners, not Guy.

If the team did want to develop a younger safety, they might want to look at Robert Smith out of Clemson, another undrafted safety. Either way, however, the team will probably be looking at Guy for a potential practice squad role unless he shows enough playmaking ability to really stand out in training camp.

Given Anderson's longtime role as a special teams ace and McDonald's excellent preseason showing last year, that seems like a long shot for Guy.