Why Indianapolis Colts Offense Must Improve Third-Down Performance in 2015

Going into last season, one of the big things the Indianapolis Colts wanted to improve was their third-down performance, something that suffered noticeably after Reggie Wayne's season-ending ACL tear last season.

One year later, they're in the exact same position.

"We know we've got to improve on third down," Chuck Pagano told Phillip B. Wilson of Scout.com. "We know we've got to get much better in the red area. It's been an area of focus, for not only (Andrew Luck), but for our entire offense, those situational things."

To nobody's surprise, Pagano's concerns are backed up by the numbers.

According to ESPN.com, the Colts were 13th in the league last season in third-down conversions, gaining a first down 41 percent of the time. Thirteenth is nice, but for an offense that is supposed to be elite, that's simply not good enough.

The Colts offense took a big step last season, finishing third in total yards and sixth in points. But the team's efficiency was lacking, especially down the stretch. Not only were the Colts' third-down numbers pedestrian, but the Colts tied with three teams for 21st in the league in total turnovers and were just 12th in red-zone-touchdown percentage.

Little things like that can help an offense go from good to great.

In breaking down the Colts' third-down performance, it starts with the quarterback. Andrew Luck finished 12th overall in third-down conversions last year, converting 40.8 percent of his passing attempts (including sacks).*

Quarterback	Team	Att.	Comp.	Comp. %	Sacks	First Downs	Conv. %
Tony Romo	DAL	128	85	66.4	15	70	49.0%
Carson Palmer	ARZ	76	49	64.5	5	39	48.1%
Aaron Rodgers	GBP	139	84	60.4	13	71	46.7%
Drew Brees	NOS	171	109	63.7	9	84	46.7%
Tom Brady	NEP	153	93	60.8	9	73	45.1%
Phillip Rivers	SDC	167	197	64.1	15	82	45.1%
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	157	102	65	12	76	45.0%
Mark Sanchez	PHI	97	57	58.8	7	45	43.3%
Colin Kaepernick	SF	143	89	62.2	19	68	42.0%
Peyton Manning	DEN	164	102	62.2	7	71	41.5%
Matt Ryan	ATL	172	101	58.7	16	78	41.5%
Andrew Luck	IND	158	89	56.3	11	69	40.8%

Again, 12th overall is fine, but Luck is supposed to be nearing the top of the list among quarterbacks, not middling among the likes of Eli Manning and Josh McCown.

Of course, he's not the only high-profile quarterback to struggle, relatively, on third down. Joe Flacco finished 18th on the list, Cam Newton 25th, and Russell Wilson fell all the way to 32nd out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks.

Last season, Luck was 27th in the same metric, converting less than 36 percent of the time.

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

The same numbers were crunched for long third downs (seven yards to go or more), and Luck finished 12th again, including quarterback runs, converting 33 percent of his attempts. This is an area where Luck led the league as a rookie, but he fell to 16th last season (28.2 percent).

Now, the Colts did improve from 2013, just not as much as one would have hoped. The Colts only converted 37.6 percent of their third downs in 2013, and you can see Luck's improvement in the numbers above.

There are some striking similarities between the two seasons. The first and most obvious is the fact that injuries played a huge part in derailing the Colts' third-down performance.

In 2013, it was Wayne's ACL tear. In 2014, it was a season-ending broken leg for running back Ahmad Bradshaw and a crippling high ankle sprain that derailed the rest of Dwayne Allen's season.

Both injuries occurred against the New England Patriots in Week 11, and the numbers paint a pretty stark picture.

According to my own calculations, which are based on the play-by-play stats at Pro-Football-Reference.com, before the Patriots game, the Colts were converting 44.9 percent of their third and fourth downs, a mark that would have ranked fifth in the league over the entire season. But in the second half of the season, including the playoffs, the Colts gained a first down just under 39 percent of the time, which would have ranked 20th for the season.

When you consider how important the two players were to the Colts' third downs, both passing and running, it makes sense.

Player	Tgts.	Rec.	Yds.	1st	1st By Pen.	1st Rate
Dwayne Allen	11	8	165	8	1	75.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw	13	11	104	8		61.5%
Donte Moncrief	21	15	324	11		52.4%
Coby Fleener	29	13	183	12	1	43.3%
T.Y. Hilton	36	18	339	15	1	43.2%
Dan Herron	6	6	51	2	1	42.9%
Jack Doyle	5	3	26	2		40.0%
Reggie Wayne	41	17	241	15		36.6%
Hakeem Nicks	29	14	146	8	3	34.4%

Both players were among Luck's favorite targets on third down. While they didn't have a huge volume of targets, they were very efficient when they did get the ball (largely on dump-offs or over the middle of the field).

Without their presence on passing downs, the Colts didn't have any reliable possession receivers, as Wayne continued to decline and Coby Fleener was wildly unpredictable in that role. Fleener has a role as a deep threat in the passing game and can be very effective, but as a possession receiver he's shown that he still needs work.

Another key injury for Indianapolis down the stretch was T.Y. Hilton's tweaked hamstring in the week leading up to the Week 15 matchup in Cleveland. While he went on to have a strong game against Cleveland, the hamstring injury would linger, and Hilton's numbers suffered.

Hilton was having a fantastic season prior to the injury, gaining 1,145 yards in 12 games (95 per game) and catching over 67 percent of his passes. After the Cleveland game, Hilton caught just over 38 percent of his passes and averaged just over 50 yards per game.

His third-down numbers suffered as well. Hilton was converting 50 percent of his third-down targets prior to the Cleveland game and converted just over 27 percent after, including the playoffs. For wide receivers, 50 percent generally puts one in the top third of the league, while 27 percent would rank in the bottom 10 percent.

Going into 2015, the Colts' situation looks to be much-improved to handle such injuries to pass-catchers.

Even if Frank Gore gets hurt, the team has options behind him with rookie Josh Robinson and Dan Herron, both of whom are more than capable in the passing game, unlike Trent Richardson.

Another injury to Allen would be trickier to overcome, but the Colts are better equipped to do it this season, with Andre Johnson providing a much better possession option than Wayne did and Donte Moncrief and rookie Phillip Dorsett providing excellent depth at the receiver position.

If completely healthy, the Colts have shown they can be a top-end team on third down. But complete health is a tough accomplishment. Fortunately for Indianapolis, depth has been a key for Ryan Grigson this offseason, and the Colts have the tools to deal with unexpected blows.

*As I do every season, I charted each quarterback's third-down performance (min. 50 att.) to get these numbers, accounting for kneels and spikes as well as quarterback runs. Big thanks to Pro-Football-Reference.com for their tools in aiding the data collection process.