Why Dwyane Wade's Decision Could Influence Goran Dragic's Miami Heat Future

The Miami Heat might have a free-agency problem.

Team president Pat Riley has known ever since he traded for Goran Dragic that the Slovenian's deal would run up at the end of the 2014-15 season. What he probably didn't expect was all the drama that has started to surround Dwyane Wade, who has a $16.1 million player option for 2015-16 which may go untouched.

More from ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Brian Windhorst:

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Wade and the Heat sit far apart on their desires; the Heat would prefer for Wade to opt into the deal and Wade would prefer a new, richer and longer-term contract, sources said.

The sides have not formally spoken in some time. They had discussed a new contract for around $10 million per year for up to three years beyond his current deal, sources said.

Wade, who took a pay cut in 2010 when LeBron James and Chris Bosh signed and again last summer to help make cap space to sign Luol Deng, is interested in a pay raise and not a pay cut.

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Shelburne and Windhorst added that Wade and the Heat will meet by Monday, June 29, a couple of days before free agents can start negotiating with all teams. But circumstances are getting a little more complicated...

It all started with B/R's Ethan Skolnick mentioning Wade-to-L.A. as a possibility.

Of course, it's perfectly plausible Wade is using the Lakers purely as leverage. After all, this wouldn't be the first time there was conveniently rumored flirting between him and another organization.

Let's travel five years back in time, before the LeBron-Wade-Bosh dynamic existed. From an ESPN report published July 3, 2010:

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Dwyane Wade met with the Chicago Bulls for a second time on Friday but left the meeting without making a formal commitment to the Bulls, a source told ESPN.com's Chad Ford on Friday evening.

The 2½-hour meeting included the Bulls' front office, Wade and his agent Henry Thomas. Multiple reports said Chris Bosh joined the group for part of the meeting.

'Things are getting very interesting,' Wade said after the meeting.

The same source told ESPN.com earlier on Friday that Wade went into the meeting leaning toward committing to the Bulls. After the meeting, Wade remains on the fence, according to the source.

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That wasn't just a chat. There were meetings. Two. But, as we all know, the "Dwyane Wade Signs with the Chicago Bulls" headlines never graced the back pages. He stayed in Miami, as he always has.

Back to the Lakers. If this were purely a leverage move, wouldn't L.A. be the go-to team to pick?

The Lakers have room to offer the max on a short-term contract, allowing Wade to team up with Kobe Bryant in what would be a slightly more promising transition year before loads of cap space opens up during the summer of 2016. They're in or by Hollywood, where Wade's wife, actress Gabrielle Union, could bring it on. Plus, there's the personal aspect of it for the Heat. The Lakers were, of course, Riley's longtime team from 1981 to 1990.

But what if this is real? What if Wade were actually to pack his bags and leave South Florida?

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

You have to wonder how his hypothetical departure would affect Dragic, who stands to earn the largest contract of his career after signing a four-year, $34 million deal with the Phoenix Suns in 2012.

Would he want to return to a team led by just Luol Deng (who could actually turn down a $10.2 million player option) and Chris Bosh with both of them now on the wrong side of 30?

The Lakers could shift and offer him big money. The New York Knicks could turn him into a priority.

Dragic has actually spoken about how he wouldn't hold his history with the Houston Rockets against the organization. General manager Daryl Morey let him go in free agency a few years ago. Now, the Rockets will be looking to secure a point guard again with their starting floor general, Patrick Beverley, hitting free agency as well.

Then, there are the Sacramento Kings, because you're not going to talk about big-name, free-agent point guards without mentioning that team, even if their cap situation is all kinds of funky.

It's an awkward situation for the Heat, who parted with a couple of future first-rounders just to acquire the former Suns point guard. Now, it appears they'll be stuck with two uncontracted stars who are uncertain—one might even say "ambivalent"—about their futures.

It'd be surprising to see Dragic accept a Miami offer right away knowing what we do now, considering ESPN's Marc Stein reported over the weekend that the Heat would "offer Dragic a five-year deal in excess of $80 million" to try keeping him in Miami. But that's less than the max, which would hover over $100 million with a five-year agreement.

It's only natural to assume Dragic will test out the market under those projected circumstances, despite Fox Sports Florida's Surya Fernandez reporting in May that Dragic's first choice was still the Heat. And if he encounters a larger offer that the Heat aren't willing to top, couldn't it all fall apart? Couldn't the Heat, in the absolute worst-case scenario, be left with only Bosh and Hassan Whiteside?

Issac Baldizon/Getty Images

Even as recently as the end of the season, it seemed insane to suggest Wade would leave South Beach. He's been there since starting his pro career in 2003. He's won three rings there. He got married (in a castle) there. He lives there. He knows everyone in the Heat organization. Everyone knows him.

In 2010, Miami-Dade County actually changed its name to "Miami-Wade County" for the first week of the star's free agency. Then, there was this Instagram from last summer:

But the situation has gotten a little sketchy of late.

His dad was wearing a Cleveland Cavaliers shirt over the weekend, which either means everything or nothing depending on how melodramatic you are and how much stock you put into paternal wardrobe when trying to figure out free-agency decisions. Probably more telling, he also made these comments when appearing on an Internet radio show called The Hot Corner (h/t Ananth Pandian of CBS Sports):

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Host: We have a question from David in Miami. He wants us to ask you, 'Is D-Wade going to stay with Miami next year?'

Dwyane Sr.: You know I've heard that maybe two-to-three hundred times. And the best answer I can probably give to that is, you guys have had D-Wade ever since he came in the league; let's just pray with God that he stays here the rest of the way.

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And Heat fans really do have to pray, because even at the stage of his career when he can no longer play 82 games a season, Wade remains one of the NBA's best shooting guards.

The way Wade-related chatter amongst the general public has transformed over the past couple of years is one of the weirder NBA reputation shifts. He spoiled us so many times doing brilliant basketball things for so many years that when he becomes just "one of the better shooting guards in the league," we all let out a collective sigh and think, "Well, I guess that's it for Dwyane Wade as a great player."

But it's not. We may not see the 2009 Wade we loved to watch, but one of the five or six best shooting guards who ever stepped on a basketball court still knows how to rough up a game.

He can still carry the load for an offense, putting up efficient numbers while ranking second in the NBA in usage rate for a bottom-10 attack that desperately needed his presence for most of the season. He finishes around the rim about as well as anyone. And every once in a while, when his legs are feeling good, you'll get those throwback Wade performances—the ones with surgical slashing, a gluttonous amount of free throws and monster efficiency.

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Just because the Heat fell from 54 to 37 wins during 2014-15 doesn't mean losing has to be the norm moving forward—even with their current core.

Bosh missed 38 games with blood clots in his lungs but is expected to return next season. Dragic spent the first half of the year on another team and the second half getting situated in Miami. Whiteside only played 48 games and didn't even emerge as a game-changing presence until January.

It's hard to imagine a Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside starting lineup over a full season would fail to reach the playoffs in the an Eastern Conference that any second-grade teacher would grade with a frowny face, even if opponents heftily outscored the Heat when that crew, minus Bosh, was on the floor this past season. But with Wade's and Dragic's statuses in flux, the Heat are hardly guaranteed to put that unit together for the upcoming year. And even if they can, they may not be able to retain the assets they prefer without affecting their 2016 cap room.

The Heat aren't in panic mode. They shouldn't be. The best-case scenario is still an absolute possibility if not the most likely outcome. But each mini-leak from Wade's camp tells us something a tad less encouraging for Miami. And if the man who steers the ship ends up jumping overboard, there's always a chance Dragic darts for a lifeboat before the whole vessel goes down.

Follow Fred Katz on Twitter at @FredKatz.

All quotes obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are current as of June 22 and are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.