Can Tyrod Taylor Really Beat out Matt Cassel for Bills Starting QB Spot?

It's easy to get too carried away with evaluating NFL players in the offseason.

Because it's been months since a player has stepped onto a field to compete on Sunday, the hint of competition in OTAs can be like water in the desert. Unfortunately, that water is too often a mirage because of the conditions that players are competing under.

Take, for example, the recent reports of Davante Adams, Taylor Gabriel and Chris Conley impressing. It's not a coincidence that each player is a wide receiver. Wide receivers should excel at this time of the year, as teams aren't wearing pads, and defensive backs aren't looking to blow up their own teammates.

Positive reports from this distorted version of football are tough to entertain, but negative ones should be given greater gravity, like the one that ESPN.com's Mike Rodak recently wrote about Buffalo Bills quarterback Matt Cassel:

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The Bills have a quarterback "competition" but in three OTA practices and three minicamp sessions open to reporters this offseason, it was more of a test of which quarterbacks could make the fewest mistakes than it was a race between three consistent, competent NFL quarterbacks...Cassel was the clear "loser" of the group. There wasn't a practice open to reporters where Cassel stood out among his peers, while there were at least one or two sessions where he was just downright bad...The Bills can wipe his $4.15 million base salary off the books if they release him prior to the start of the regular season, an appealing option if Cassel's struggles continue into training camp.

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Cassel's struggles are significant because they can unexpectedly open the door for both EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor to become the team's starting quarterback.

Even though the Bills have preached quarterback competition all offseason and backed up their words by splitting repetitions equally among each player, Cassel's acquisition was supposed to make him the clear favorite to start.

Unlike Manuel and Taylor, Cassel has a wealth of experience as a starting quarterback in the NFL. The 33-year-old started 45 games over a three-year span from 2008 to 2010. He has started in the playoffs and entered last season as the starter for the Minnesota Vikings.

Even though Cassel has a clear edge in experience, his quality of play in the past and his skill set don't give him an insurmountable lead.

Manuel is the more-known commodity than Taylor. He has started 14 games over the past two seasons after being a first-round pick for the franchise in 2013. Even though Manuel was selected that high in the draft, his skill set has never promised much potential. He lacks arm talent and is an awful decision-maker.

The change in coaching staff will also force Manuel to earn anything he is given. Most first-round picks receive more patience than players picked in latter rounds, but that investment won't matter now that there is a new coaching staff running the team.

Taylor was a sixth-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens back in 2011. He will be 26 years of age at the beginning of next season, having thrown just 35 passes in the regular season over his four-year career. He is a very impressive athlete who has flashed ability to throw from the pocket in preseason games over the years.

It's easy to find athletes at the quarterback position, but it's tougher to find athletes who show proficiency from the pocket. That is what forced Terrelle Pryor to abandon his hopes of becoming a starting quarterback in the league to become a wide receiver.

Against lesser opposition, Taylor showed off a willingness to keep his eyes downfield against pressure and a quick, precise process in the pocket.

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Timing and precision on shorter routes will be important in the Bills offense because of the caliber and style of players at the skill positions. To keep the timing and precision of any offense, the quarterback needs to show discipline from the pocket.

On this play, Taylor is going to make a pocket throw with a hand in his face. Importantly, before that point of the play, he is quick and precise in his deep dropback in the pocket.

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Taylor threw the ball over his blocker and the defender who is reaching his hand into his face. Despite this, the ball landed at chest level to his receiver, who was running a curl route from the outside. The ball arrived on time, so the defensive back playing man coverage didn't have any time to recover his positioning.

By not dropping his eyes and by sustaining his mechanical discipline in the pocket against pressure, Taylor was able to allow this play to function as designed.

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From the same preseason game, Taylor showed off similar poise in the pocket to throw a touchdown pass. On this occasion, Taylor is in the shotgun facing a 3rd-and-goal from the Saints' 8-yard line. He has three receivers bunched together to the right side and two to the left.

It's a difficult situation for any quarterback, but by bunching the receivers together, the Ravens were able to simplify Taylor's reads downfield.

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The Saints didn't blitz even though it was 3rd-and-long, but the Ravens left tackle was so late off the snap that the edge-rusher essentially got an unopposed run at the quarterback. Taylor was quick to drop back, and he never took his eyes away from the coverage.

Most significantly, he stepped forward to throw the ball downfield, which negated the free rusher in the pocket.

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Because he stepped forward, Taylor had to once again release the ball with a defender's hand in his face. His compact release meant that none of the defenders behind him could affect his throwing motion, while his high release allowed the ball to travel unopposed to the open defender at the back of the end zone.

Taylor almost overthrew his receiver, but it was a catchable pass that resulted in a touchdown.

In a run-first, conservative offense that boasts receivers, running backs and tight ends who can create yards after the catch, the quarterback shouldn't be asked to make complicated reads downfield. He should rarely be reading a progression that works from one sideline to the other.

Quick throws to short routes should be complemented by encouraged scrambles, designed runs and rollout/play fakes that cut the field in half for the quarterback.

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His small sample showcased how Taylor's poise extends past functioning in the pocket to making good decisions and short progression reads. On this play he drops deep in the pocket after play action before coming off his first receiver to find his second receiver on the other side of the field.

Impending backside pressure affected his throw, but the ball arrived accurately for his receiver. Unfortunately for Taylor, the receiver couldn't coral the ball.

These kinds of plays are nice additions from a quarterback who is more likely to rely on his athleticism. Taylor is a very impressive athlete. He has a short-area burst and fluidity that makes him very elusive both in the pocket and in the open field, as well as enough long speed to break off big plays.

Using Taylor's legs to manage down-and-distance situations will be more important for the Bills than breaking off big plays, but both will be added dimensions over what Cassel would bring to the position.

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Regardless of who starts for the Bills this year, it's unlikely that the team gets average or above-average play from the position. Instead of looking for that, the coaching staff should be searching for the player who is most consistent within his skill set.

A limited player who can consistently execute what is asked of him is a player who can be propped up by his supporting cast and scheme. A limited player who is more erratic with how he fails on the field will sabotage your whole offense on a more regular basis.

For Taylor to become the Bills starter, he only needs to prove that he can consistently carry out what offensive coordinator Greg Roman asks of him.

Roman stressed Colin Kaepernick too much when he was the offensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers in 2014. However, before then the 49ers offense did a great job of masking Kaepernick's weaknesses by asking him to only make specific throws and complement the running game with his athleticism.

Taylor isn't on the same level of Kaepernick, but his style of play and his consistency within his skill set could make him a better fit in the structure of the team than either Cassel or Manuel.

He should still be considered the underdog in this quarterback competition, but Cassel's poor play to begin the offseason will give the coaching staff more reasons to entertain his upside, even if it comes with the threat of the unknown.