UFC 189: Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor Early Main Card Preview and Predictions
UFC 188 was a decent card on its own, but it was still merely the bridge between the hyper-stacked UFC 187, which featured two big title bouts, and UFC 189, home to the most hyped fight in modern UFC history, Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor. The full card is as follows:
Main Card
- Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor
- Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald
- Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens
- Gunnar Nelson vs. John Hathaway
- Thomas Almeida vs. Brad Pickett
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
- Matt Brown vs. Tim Means
- Brandon Thatch vs. John Howard
- Mike Swick vs. Alex Garcia
- Cody Garbrandt vs. Henry Briones
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
- Neil Seery vs. Louis Smolka
- Yosdenis Cedeno vs. Cody Pfister
The UFC is putting many, many eggs in the Aldo vs. McGregor basket, with a relatively weak supporting cast behind the featherweight title bout. That said, there is some intrigue to be found outside the main event...and Aldo vs. McGregor is a great basket.
The co-main event is an under-the-radar welterweight title fight between Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald, which has all of the technical brilliance of the headliner and none of the bluster. Also on the card are not one, not two, but three bouts showcasing talent poised to jump into the top 10.
So let's take a look at the UFC 189 main card and break down the fights.
Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida
1 of 5
Division: Bantamweight
Records: Brad Pickett (24-10), Thomas Almeida (19-0)
Brad Pickett and Thomas Almeida are heading in opposite directions right now.
Pickett is in a career free fall. While it seemed like a move to the flyweight division would give his career new life, back-to-back losses to Ian McCall and Chico Camus killed his standing in the division. Now, a year after he seemed primed for a Cinderella run toward contention, he might just be in a "win or go to WSOF" fight.
Almeida, on the other hand, is a fast-rising, undefeated prospect poised to jump into the wide-open bantamweight top 10. A win over a respected veteran, even one who has fallen on hard times, would do wonders for his career and could easily serve as the launch pad for a title run.
The question here is whether or not Almeida is ready to take on a relatively tricky, savvy veteran like Pickett. This writer thinks he is up to the task.
Prediction: Thomas Almeida def. Brad Pickett by unanimous decision.
Gunnar Nelson vs. John Hathaway
2 of 5
Division: Welterweight
Records: Gunnar Nelson (13-1-1), John Hathaway (17-2)
Two years ago, Gunnar Nelson was the sexiest prospect in MMA. A grappler with an attack that looked like he had used psychic powers to steal his opponent's playbook, he was the kind of fighter UFC commentators sent love letters to between rounds.
Then, he spent a year out of the cage, nursing injuries. During that time, veterans Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown climbed back into relevance. Tyron Woodley and Tarec Saffiedine transferred out of Strikeforce and became major players in the UFC at 170 pounds. Other prospects, like Kelvin Gastelum and Ryan LaFlare, emerged.
Nelson was forgotten, and while he would eventually return with back-to-back submission wins in 2014, an ugly loss to Rick Story made it unclear where he stacks up in a talent-rich division.
The UFC still feels relatively bullish on him, it seems. While John Hathaway isn't a bad fighter, he fits perfectly into Nelson's game and lacks the tools to threaten him standing, or on the ground. Look for Nelson to control grappling exchanges and either score points with his ground game or force a tap.
Prediction: Gunnar Nelson def. John Hathaway by unanimous decision.
Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens
3 of 5
Division: Featherweight
Records: Dennis Bermudez (14-4), Jeremy Stephens (23-11)
The featherweight division has a deep pool of talent, but few true contenders right now. A number of hot up-and-comers have been sent tumbling down Championship Mountain and are desperately trying to regain their footing. Dennis Bermudez and Jeremy Stephens are among that lot and need a convincing win in order to keep themselves relevant in the fast-moving weight class.
It's a tough spot for both men. Bermudez was a serious contender after amassing a seven-fight winning streak, but those title hopes were dashed when he was effortlessly dispatched by Ricardo Lamas at UFC 180. Stephens, meanwhile, established himself as a legitimate top 10-caliber fighter after dropping to 145 pounds in 2013, but he has dropped back-to-back fights to Charles Oliveira and Cub Swanson.
This fight will likely go in one of two directions. Stephens is, as Mike Goldberg would put it, a "wrestler-in-reverse." He presses forward, throws haymakers, stuffs takedowns and either scores points with his cage control or gets the finish via scary knockout. Historically, however, things begin going sideways opposite technically superior strikers (who can avoid his simplistic attack) or formidable wrestlers (who can tie him up and take him down).
Stephens turned in a poor performance in his last outing, surrendering multiple takedowns to a fighter without Bermudez's NCAA Division I pedigree. If he can't get back into his 2013 form, this should be a fairly decisive win for Bermudez.
Prediction: Dennis Bermudez def. Jeremy Stephens by unanimous decision.
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Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald
4 of 5
Division: Welterweight
Records: Robbie Lawler (25-10 (1)), Rory MacDonald (18-2)
Robbie Lawler returns to the cage to defend his welterweight strap from young gun Rory MacDonald. It's an epic battle of new vs. old. Hungry up-and-comer vs. grizzled veteran. Next wave vs. throwback.
Lawler's comeback has been an absolute treat for longtime MMA fans, who watched him wash out of the UFC in 2004, struggle in outside promotions, surprisingly rejoin the UFC in 2013 and surge his way to the title in 2015. Training with American Top Team, Lawler has reinvented himself as a relentless, but technically solid, striker.
MacDonald, meanwhile, has long been regarded as the future of the welterweight division. Before his 20th birthday, the Canadian Psycho had already demolished the entire regional scene in western Canada, and when he joined the TriStar gym and began his tutelage under Firas Zahabi, a championship reign felt like a foregone conclusion. A well-rounded, freakishly methodical fighter, MacDonald has made top welterweights like Tarec Saffiedine and Tyron Woodley look downright amateurish.
The two have faced off before, with Lawler narrowly edging out MacDonald on the judges' scorecards at UFC 167. While the rematch can go either way, another win for Lawler is the most likely outcome. Expect the champ to use his diverse striking attack to flummox MacDonald en route to a decision win.
Prediction: Robbie Lawler def. Rory MacDonald by unanimous decision.
Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor
5 of 5
Division: Featherweight
Records: Jose Aldo (25-1), Conor McGregor (17-2)
The most highly anticipated fight of 2015 is almost upon us. For months on end, fans have been treated to mini-documentaries, headline-producing press events and glitzy trailers. Soon, though, the shine will turn matte, the music will go silent and everyone will be reminded what Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor really is: a cagefight. And a damn good one at that.
Aldo is one of the pound-for-pound greatest fighters in the game today and, arguably, ranks among the greatest of all time. His devastating striking game, built around a timely jab and a devastating leg kick, is inherently low-risk, high-reward, but his sheer power and ferocity leaves opponents wearing punches even when his output is low.
McGregor, like Lyoto Machida before him, is a unique fighter who has challenged fans' and pundits' preconceived notions of what techniques work at the highest level of mixed martial arts. A long fighter who fights even longer, McGregor's left hand is a lethal weapon that has left almost all comers in a heap.
It is a fight between men with wildly contrasting styles that pull one another out of their comfort zones, and it is a fight that will be decided on which one can better adjust to his foe.
The fight is a toss-up, but this writer is leaning in the direction of the challenger. While Aldo's ability to score points with judges is second-to-none, McGregor's cage-cutting and southpaw striking are a stylistic nightmare for the champ. While Aldo could easily pull this one out, a McGregor decision is the pick here.
Prediction: Conor McGregor defeats Jose Aldo by unanimous decision.
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