NASCAR at Michigan 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for Quicken Loans 400
Sundayโs Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway could wind up being a pivotal race.
It will be the 15th race of the season, and teams that have yet to win a race or have struggled will likely go all out to step up their game on Sunday.
The reason: The Sprint Cup Series is off next weekend. Sundayโs race will be the last opportunity for teams to see what does and doesnโt work before they change their mindset toward what to do in the remaining 11 races of the regular season.
The start of the so-called Race To The Chase (the unofficial prelude to the Chase for the Sprint Cup) begins June 28 at Sonoma. Those 11 races are going to be hard-fought battles, especially for those drivers still without a win and hoping to still make the Chase.
Thatโs why a win at Michigan would go a long way toward helping the fortunes of those who have not won a race. But of course, only one driver can win, so let the best man or woman win Sunday.
Just as long as itโs not someone who has already won this season, please.
By the Numbers: Michigan International Speedway
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Quicken Loans 400
Place:ย Michigan International Speedway
Date:ย Sunday, June 14
Time:ย 1 p.m. (ET)
TV:ย Fox Sports 1, 12 p.m. (ET)
Radio:ย Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 200 laps, 400 miles (2-mile oval track)
Defending winner:ย Jimmie Johnson
Youngest winner:ย Joey Logano on 08/18/2013 (23 years, 2 months, 25 days)
Oldest winner:ย Harry Gant on 08/16/1992 (52 years, 7 months, 10 days)
Youngest pole winner: Joey Logano on 08/18/2013 (23 years, 2 months, 25 days)
Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on 08/19/2012 (53 years, 7 months, 10 days)
Most wins: David Pearson (9), Greg Biffle (4 among active drivers)
Most poles: David Pearson (10), Jeff Gordon (6 among active drivers)
Most race starts at Michigan: Bill Elliott (61)
Most laps led: 1,308 (Cale Yarborough)
Best average start (active driver): Jimmie Johnson (9.615)
Best average finish (active driver): Carl Edwards (9.714)
TRACK NOTES:
- Total number of races at Michigan to date: 91
- Total number of different pole winners in Michigan history: 46
- Races won from pole: 18
- Race record: Dale Jarrett 173.997 mph (06/13/1999)ย
- Qualifying record: Jeff Gordon 206.558 mph (08/17/2014)
- Number of race winners in Michigan: 36
- Most Top Fives: Cale Yarborough (21)ย
- Most Top 10s: Mark Martin (31)
Key Storylines
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Puzzling Penske: Joey Logano wins the season-opening Daytona 500, while teammate Brad Keselowski all but assures his own berth in the Chase For the Sprint Cup with his win at Fontana in March. But since then, the two Team Penske drivers have been shut out of Victory Lane. What gives?
Roush Redux: Roush Fenway Racing all but used to own Michigan International Speedway, with virtually every driver in the RFR stable over the last 15 years having won there at least onceโor as many as Greg Biffleโs team-high four wins. For whatever reason, the Roush drivers seem to get more geared up for this race and typically do fairly well. They certainly could use something like that Sunday, particularly how their overall team performance has been thus far this season.
Junior Tries Again: Michigan holds a special place in Dale Earnhardt Jr.โs heart. It was at MIS that Junior managed to earn his only two Sprint Cup wins from 2007 through 2013. (His wins came in 2008 and 2012.) Earnhardt is still ticked about finishing 11th at Pocono and will likely look for revenge at MIS.
Whatโs Next For Truex? Having finally won last Sunday at Pocono, Martin Truex Jr. can rest a bit more easily, now that heโs all but guaranteed to make this yearโs Chase for the Sprint Cup. But having watched this one-car team perform this season, odds are likely that Truex is going to try to win as many races as he still can between now and the start of the Chase in mid-September.
Will Smoke Rise? Tony Stewart has been so far under the radarโdue to his worst season start in his Cup careerโthat if you werenโt aware heโs still racing, you might think he had already retired. Thereโs something about Michigan that seems to bring out the best in Stewart. What better place to begin a turnaround than in Michiganโs Irish Hills?
Drivers to Watch
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Joey Logano:ย Logano has been somewhat of an enigma in 2015. He won the season-opening Daytona 50 and has seven top-five and 10 top-10 finishes in the first 14 races. And even though heโs ranked fourth in the standings, some observers might consider Logano as having an off season due to not reaching Victory Lane more often. He set the sportโs speed record at MIS (since broken by Jeff Gordon) and thrives in its fast pace and wide track.
Brad Keselowski: Much like his Penske Racing teammate, Logano, Keselowski has also failed to reach Victory Lane more than once thus far this season. He went so far as to say after Sundayโs race at Pocono that his car just isnโt as good as it should be. Is it really the car, or has the competitionโand its own carsโjust gotten better?
Greg Biffle: Ugh, what an ugly season Biffle has had to date, with just one top-five and one other top-10 finish in the first 14 races. Heโs a prime example of why Roush Fenway Racing has struggled so much. Itโs not so much the driver as it is the cars. But even when heโs had other bad seasons, Biffle always seems to bring his A+ game to Michigan. Could we see a surprise win Sunday?
Kyle Busch: While he still has a long way to go to make the Chase (has to win a race and be no lower than 30th in the standings after Richmond in September), Busch has shown a lot of heart and determination in coming back from the devastating injuries he sustained back in February. Itโs only a matter of time before the younger Busch brother wins a race this season. And MIS could be the perfect place for him, as it plays to his strengths, particularly with its fast speeds and wide layout. If Busch can win Sunday, he just has to make sure he can get intoโand stayโin the top 30.
Tony Stewart: If Stewart is going to get going and qualify for the Chase for the first time since 2012, he needs to start stepping up his game this Sunday at Michigan. Heโs had a long and successful history at the two-mile track, and what better place for him to start back in the right direction than Sundayโs race?
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Favorites
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Jeff Gordon: Gordon has a stellar record at MIS with three wins, 19 top-five and 27 top-10 finishes. Given how heโs uncharacteristically struggled through the first 14 races, Gordon needs a good finish at Michigan. Weโre not talking a top-10, but rather a top-three, if not a win.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Earnhardt has won twice in his career at Michigan, a place that favors his driving style with its wide corners and 200-plus mph speeds. He is one of the best when it comes to rim-riding at the top on one lap and then way down low on the next. Given his disappointment in how his team did last week at Pocono (11th), Earnhardt wants nothing less than a win at Michigan.
Kevin Harvick: Honestly, how can you not include Harvick as a favorite to win at just about every track on the circuit? With a record-tying 10 top-two finishes in the first 14 races, itโs no wonder heโs been the points leader for so long this seasonโand he shows no signs of giving that up. While heโs had decent success at Michigan (28 starts, one win, seven top-five and 12 top-10 finishes), he could do better. Plus, MIS is the kind of track he likes: wide and fast.
Carl Edwards: While heโs no longer with Roush Fenway Racing, Michigan is still one of Edwardsโ favoriteโand most successfulโtracks. In 21 starts, he has two wins, nine top-fives and 15 top-10s. Toyota as a whole has struggled at times at MIS, but Edwards would love to change that on Sunday.
Kurt Busch: When heโs good at Michigan, Kurt Busch can be great. But when heโs bad, itโs fairly noticeable. Still, Busch has two wins, two other top-fives and nine total top-10 finishes. Even though it happened more than a decade ago, Busch is still somewhat known for being punched in the nose by former driver Jimmy Spencer after an ongoing feud between the two boiled over at MIS. Still, Busch has the power under the hood and the team behind him to earn his second win of the year at MIS.
Dark-Horse Pick: Sam Hornish Jr.
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With the struggles he's endured this season, Sam Hornish Jr. is perhaps one of the darkest of dark horses in this race. But he grew up at MIS and has had some decent runs there in the past in both the NASCAR and IndyCar world.
While he has never won there in any series, he does have a combined four runner-up showings.
Given the rough start to the season heโs had, including last Sundayโs disappointing wreck and 41st-place finish at Pocono, Hornish will be back at his home track in front of a large contingent of family and friends.
Having been grown up an hour away in Defiance, Ohio, Hornish knows the meaning of doing well in front of the home crowd.
And if thereโs anything he needs more right now, itโs to do wellโnot just in front of the home crowd, but period.
And the Winner Is: Martin Truex Jr.
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Yes, lightning can strike twice, and Martin Truex Jr. can win back-to-back races.
He has a fast car and a great pit crew, and the momentum he gained from winning Sunday at Pocono should easily carry over to Michigan.
Admittedly, his past track record at MIS is marginal: Heโs never won thereย in 18 career starts andย has just three top-five and two other top-10 finishes.
But given the season heโs havingโand will likely continue to haveโthe past means nothing when it comes to Truexโs performance in 2015. Rather, itโs all about the futureโand that future is looking good.
Statistical information provided byย NASCARย media relations.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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