Cincinnati Reds: Making the Call on Top Trade Chips

Even if the Cincinnati Reds don't get back into contention, they are going to be a team that has a big impact on the pennant race.

Why? Because the team has plenty of attractive trade chips.

The proverbial window appears to be closing on this Reds squad. Some of the key players are entering the final year(s) of their contracts, which will force the club to make some tough decisions. Keeping those players would certainly help the club stay relevant, but trading them would help the organization in the future.

The Castellini family has been determined to bring a championship to Cincinnati since buying the team nearly a decade ago. Ownership has done a great job of turning the franchise around, but now, it faces some crucial decisions that could affect the team for years to come.

With plenty of trade chips on the roster, Cincinnati has the ability to control the market come July. Keep reading to find out which players the Reds should deal and which they should keep.

Johnny Cueto

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Nobody in Cincinnati wants to trade Johnny Cueto, one of the top pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, though, the time to part ways with the ace has come.

Having a pitcher of Cueto's caliber is a blessing and a curse. It's good because the pitcher gives the team a chance to win every time out. However, a pitcher that good is going to get paid.

Cueto, a 20-game winner in 2014, has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball since the start of 2011. The right-hander has not had an earned run average above 2.82 since then, despite pitching in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Given the contracts that star pitchers have gotten in recent years, Cueto is as good as gone. The Reds can't afford to hand out a $200 million-plus contract to a 29-year-old pitcher. The Reds could try to trade away some other players in order to clear salary for Cueto, but at that point, they'd find themselves in a spot similar to that of the Philadelphia Phillies: an ace to lead the rotation, but not much to speak of on offense.

Even if the club hadn't signed Homer Bailey to a $105 million contract, the Reds should probably move on from Cueto at this point. Don't forget, this is a pitcher who has had some injury problems in recent seasons and is currently working through elbow stiffness. His track record speaks for itself. This club can't afford to be giving a huge contract to an aging pitcher with an injury-filled past.

As long as Cueto doesn't have any further issues with his elbow stiffness, this current injury shouldn't hurt his trade value. He's the type of player who can bring back a nice return that can help speed up a "rebuilding process." The only thing that will keep the club from maximizing his value is the fact that any team that trades for him would potentially only be getting him for half a season. 

Cueto is going to be a hot commodity in July. Once the All-Star Game is over with, the Cueto sweepstakes will be in full swing. 

Verdict: Trade

Aroldis Chapman

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Unlike Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman is not in his walk year.

That is good news for the Reds if they are looking to trade him.

Teams usually prefer to trade for star players who are signed for more than just the end of the season. Any contender that believes it is just one reliever away from being a serious title contender would be crazy not to try to acquire the left-hander. 

Chapman is under contract through the 2016 season. He is making $8.05 million this season, and assuming he continues to be the dominant reliever he has always been, he is going to be making eight figures next season. A shutdown closer isn't necessary for a rebuilding team, so if the Reds decide to start over by having a fire sale this summer, Chapman is one of the players who will be gone.

However, if the Reds do decide to have a fire sale, keeping Chapman wouldn't be a terrible decision by the club. The flame-throwing southpaw is a player whom fans pay to see, even during losing seasons. That would give the front office reason to keep him.

Obviously the front office isn't going to keep a closer just to bring in a few extra bucks if it means passing up on some talented young players it could get in a trade. 

The trade market will be focused on Cueto and Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels. After that, Chapman's name could be thrown around in rumors quite a bit. Barring an unbelievable offer, the team should just hold on to its closer.

Verdict: Don't Trade

Mike Leake

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Although Mike Leake won't be in the top tier of pitchers on the trade market, he will certainly be in the second tier.

The 2009 first-round pick has a career 3.97 ERA in six seasons in the majors. The past two seasons, he has been good enough to be a No. 2 or No. 3 in most rotations. The right-hander has seen his workload increase in every season, thanks to his ability to stay healthy. Last season, he threw a career-high 214.1 innings.

Leake has hit a rough patch his last three starts, giving up 20 runs in just 14 innings. To put that in perspective, he gave up just 13 runs in his first 49.2 innings, spanning seven starts. His poor May shouldn't have much impact on his trade value because he has proven himself through the years.

Leake, like Cueto, is in the final year of his contract. The 27-year-old is making $9.775 million this season and is undoubtedly going to be making $10 million-plus per season in his next contract. It's just not clear how big of a contract he will command in free agency. If the Reds kept Leake through the end of the season and extended a qualifying offer to him, that would certainly help them keep him.

According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the Reds never approached Leake about a contract extension this past offseason. That seems a bit odd considering how solid the right-hander has been in his career. It may mean something, it may mean nothing.

Leake would be a solid No. 2 behind Homer Bailey in the future, but Cincinnati has plenty of young arms it can fill out the rotation with. The early performances of Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen have been impressive. With Robert Stephenson, Jon Moscot and others in the minors, the Reds may choose to move on from Cueto and Leake.

Just going by the report that the club never even talked about an extension, it would make sense for the team to trade Leake at the deadline. 

Verdict: Trade

Marlon Byrd

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Reds acquired Marlon Byrd this past offseason in hopes that he would help the offense be good enough to get the team to the postseason. After a dreadful start, he has turned things around. 

That means he can either help the team turn things around, or he can become valuable trade bait.

Some contending teams will be looking for a short-term veteran option to help them get to the postseason. Byrd served that role for the Pittsburgh Pirates back in 2013, and now, he could find himself in a similar situation again this season.

Byrd's .205 average isn't going to jump off the page, but he does have 10 home runs and 25 RBI in 45 games. For a player who is on pace to hit 20-25 home runs, an $8 million salary is a relative bargain.

The 37-year-old outfielder has an $8 million option for 2016 that vests with 550 plate appearances this season. If the Reds decide to trade away key players like Cueto and Leake, it really doesn't make sense to keep an aging outfielder—even if he does provide pop. It just doesn't make financial sense for a team like Cincinnati to give that kind of money to a seasoned player unless the team is in win-now mode. 

The Reds brought in Byrd to fill a hole. He's not going to be part of the team's long-term future, so if the Reds can get a decent prospect or two for him at the trade deadline, they should certainly look to do so.

If they don't trade Byrd, they will certainly need to rest him here and there down the stretch to make sure his option doesn't vest. But at that point, they wouldn't get anything for him in the offseason.

Verdict: Trade

Jay Bruce

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An interesting name that could get thrown around at the trade deadline is Jay Bruce.

Bruce got off to a slow start this season, but he did start to turn it around in May. After hitting .181 in the first month of the season, the right fielder hit .250 this past month. He hit just two home runs in the month, but he was also just using more of the field as the month went on.

Before last season, the Reds knew what they were getting out of Bruce. The slugger was good for a .250 average, 30 home runs and 90 RBI. Unfortunately, he has yet to regain his form since undergoing knee surgery last May.

Although the numbers aren't there right now, teams would be willing to take a chance on Bruce. He's got tremendous power and is an excellent right fielder. Plus, he will make "just" $12 million this season, $12.5 million in 2016 and has a $13 million team option for 2017. Those are very reasonable salaries for a two-time All-Star who is still in his prime.

If teams call the Reds about Bruce, they may listen and see what kind of offers they get. However, the 28-year-old outfielder is still young enough to be a part of the team's core.

MLB.com's Adam McCalvy noted this past offseason that Bruce's agent, Matt Sosnick, said that his client wants to be a "Red for life." If you have a player of that caliber who wants to stay, you don't trade him unless you get a jaw-dropping offer.

Cincinnati has enough young pitching that it can be real contenders again in a year or two if it is able to hit home runs on potential Cueto and Leake trades. With Bruce, Joey Votto and Todd Frazier, the Reds have some pieces to build around on offense.

Trading players like Cueto and Byrd would make sense, because those players aren't going to be a part of the team's long-term future. As for Bruce, he wants to be in Cincinnati. With the salary the team would shed by trading any/all of Cueto, Leake and Byrd, the team wouldn't have much of a problem keeping Bruce's contract.

Verdict: Don't Trade

*All stats are via MLB.com.