Cleveland Browns Would Be Wise to Start Johnny Manziel This Season

Blueprints for developing quarterbacks in the NFL don't exist.

Over recent years it's become more common for teams to start their young prospects as soon as possible so they can learn on the field. In the past, this was less common, as franchises attempted protect their young quarterbacks.

Neither method has proven to be better than the other because development largely hinges on the individual rather than the process or supporting cast.

Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are the two best examples. Both players started from the first week of their rookie seasons, but while Newton has gone from an athlete to a refined pocket passer, Dalton is essentially the same player now that he was four years ago.

That happened even though Dalton has always had a great supporting cast, while Newton has been forced to carry his offense for as long as he has been in the NFL.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel didn't follow Newton or Dalton's path. Manziel sat behind Brian Hoyer for most of his rookie season. He couldn't beat Hoyer because he needed to learn to run then-offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's offense and play with more refined mechanics.

Staying on the sideline can help a quarterback refine his footwork and throwing motion, but there are no guarantees. Playing through adversity on the field is inevitably what will determine if Manziel can be a long-term starter for the Browns. After essentially wasting his first year in the league, the Browns should be reluctant to show patience with the young quarterback.

Obviously you never want to rush a player who is not ready, but that player should also have to earn your patience.

A report about his rookie season from ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler and Pat McManamon suggested that Manziel wasn't taking his craft seriously. His performance on the field supported those claims. Manziel's footwork was a mess, his understanding of the system wasn't apparent and his expected impact never came to fruition.

Ultimately, the 22-year-old entered rehab in February 2015. He spent over two months in the facility before being released.

Now, during his second offseason as a professional, Manziel is once again in a quarterback competition. This time, his opponent is 35-year-old veteran Josh McCown. McCown has played 12 seasons in the NFL over 13 years. During that time he has started just 49 games.

Forty-nine games of a potential 208 qualifies McCown as a career backup.

Eleven of those 49 starts came during last season, when McCown helped turn the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense into one of the worst in the NFL. He proved to be a turnover-prone, limited quarterback who couldn't get the most out of Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. The Buccaneers' passing game ranked 31st in DVOA by Football Outsiders.

Mike Pettine and the Browns gain nothing by starting McCown. He's not a game manager or a quality starter. He won't give them a chance to become playoff contenders. Therefore, it makes more sense to get a better picture of where they stand with Manziel.

While Manziel may benefit more from sitting again this season, the Browns can't realistically wait forever to figure out who is going to be their long-term starter. If Manziel sits again this season and they have a top pick in the 2016 draft, how will they know if they should pass on a quarterback or select one?

The Browns also haven't indicated that they are expecting anything from Manziel.

Firstly, NFL Media's Charley Casserly (via NFL.com's Chris Wesseling) reported that they attempted to acquire Sam Bradford when he was with the St. Louis Rams. Secondly, McManamon reported that they showed interest in trading up with the Tennessee Titans to acquire Marcus Mariota in the NFL draft. Thirdly, and most significantly, Pettine recently talked up McCown as the favorite to start.

During an interview with The Bull and Fox radio show (h/t Ohio.com), Pettine pointed to McCown's play with the Chicago Bears before last season as the primary reason for optimism: 

"

Josh has proven in the right circumstances that he can be successful. I think it was pretty clear to us when we looked into the results of what happened for him a year ago that a lot of those circumstances were outside of his control that made the year as difficult as it was.

We just look back to when he was in Chicago, when he had a pretty good supporting cast around him, and he was able to be more than functional. He had a very successful year. When you build the team right, it minimizes the importance of the quarterback.

"

Being invested in McCown for a stretch of productivity in 2013 against poor defenses in the perfect surroundings is poor reasoning. His statistics flattered his performances for that short stretch, and they shouldn't overshadow the whole of his career that has been severely underwhelming.

Even if McCown could be a quality starter in 2015, he offers no upside in the long term. He is simply too old. Starting Manziel with no expectations is more fitting for a franchise that isn't built to contend.

The Browns may have moved on from Shanahan, but they have an offensive line and running game that could alleviate the pressure on Manziel as a starter. When Alex Mack was healthy last year, the Browns offensive line was arguably the best in the NFL. That is a huge help to any NFL quarterback.

From there, the only question is if Manziel can hold on to the starting job and show enough to make the Browns commit to his development after the 2015 season.

As a rookie, Manziel started just two regular-season games and was active for five. When you also add in his four preseason games, he played 209 total snaps on the year, according to Pro Football Focus. A sample of 209 snaps isn't anywhere near enough to get a full evaluation of a player, but we did see glimpses of his potential and primary problems.

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Shanahan's offense regularly gave its quarterbacks simple reads. Manziel struggled more with these than he should have. On this snap against the Carolina Panthers, the offense plays to Manziel's strengths by rolling him out of the pocket.

While doing so, he has two routes that work together to create a simple read.

The slot receiver runs a deep corner route, while the outside receiver runs a short curl route. Against the Panthers' zone coverage, this creates an easy read for Manziel. The quarterback initially zeroes in on the slot receiver.

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As the boundary cornerback drops deep with the corner route from the slot, Manziel should immediately bring his eyes to the curl route. Instead, he focuses on the deep receiver, leaving the curl route unnoticed. The underneath coverage never comes across to cover the curl route.

Manziel is late to recognize his open receiver, and when he does, he makes a side-arm throw that goes straight out of bounds.

This play occurred on 2nd-and-7. It should have set up a manageable third down for the offense with a simple completion, but Manziel's reluctance to read through a simple progression put the offense in a bad situation instead.

On the play immediately after, Manziel showed off his arm talent with a downfield completion.

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This was a first-read throw—but not necessarily a simple one. Manziel would have to release the ball against an impending hit while delivering it over a linebacker in his passing lane. Although he doesn't have a great arm, not every quarterback in the NFL can control the trajectory of his passes like this.

Manziel exposes Andrew Hawkins to a big hit, but most importantly, he gives him a chance to make a play on third down.

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If the deep safety hadn't attempted to read the ball for a potential interception, he would have been in position to hit a vulnerable Hawkins. Hawkins' willingness to attack the ball helped Manziel because his throw lacked the requisite velocity to be a perfect pass.

Manziel threw a number of passes down the seam as a rookie. His ability to control the trajectory of his throws makes these plays dangerous, but he also exposes his receivers too much because of their velocity.

The fluttering nature of Manziel's passes was evident during his time in college also. Former Texas A&M teammate Mike Evans repeatedly took advantage of those passes because the ball was catchable in its flight. Evans has outstanding ball skills and is the type of receiver Manziel needs to play with to be effective.

In Dwayne Bowe, the Browns have a player who can be effective in this style even if he is not as talented as the Buccaneers wideout.

A professional weight program and improved mechanics could increase the velocity of Manziel's passes. While it's rare for there to be significant changes in a professional quarterback's arm strength, it is possible, and there have been cases in the past. Aaron Rodgers is the most notable of those.

During his time in college, Manziel proved to be an elusive scrambler who had plus athleticism to elude defenders in space. That athleticism carries significantly less value in the NFL.

Manziel is just a decent athlete compared to NFL defenders. He isn't Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson. He can't expect to be effective with his legs unless he picks his spots to run. To truly be effective, he needs to be disciplined and consistent in the pocket.

Based on his play last season, the biggest obstacle to his becoming that appears to be his lack of patience with reading progressions.

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On this play against the Cincinnati Bengals, Manziel is facing a 3rd-and-5, down 20-0 at the Browns' 24-yard line. It's early in the second quarter, so the Bengals aren't looking to creatively attack Manziel. Instead they are respecting any potential run play and are in a more traditional defense.

They will rush just four defenders after the quarterback.

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As Manziel approaches the top of his drop, he appears to focus on tight end Jordan Cameron to the right of the offense. Cameron is running a deep out route, but there are two defenders close to him, so they can bracket either side of him.

The deepest defender stays outside Cameron, so Manziel smartly brings his eyes away from his tight end.

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To this point of the play, Manziel has done his job perfectly. He located his first read and came off of it when it was covered. He brought his eyes back to the middle of the field, where Hawkins left his defensive back in his wake to run into space.

Manziel is standing in a clean pocket; all he needs to do is deliver the ball in front of Hawkins for a first down.

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Instead of delivering the ball on time from a clean pocket, he loses foot discipline and drops his eyes. The quarterback advances forward but then hesitates and turns away from his receivers downfield. His offensive line had done outstanding work on this play, but Manziel ran out of a clean pocket.

This allowed a defender to come unblocked to meet him in space.

Manziel escaped the sack and ran into the left flat. From there he made a difficult throw to his tight end, who failed to adjust to the ball in the air. These are the types of plays that infuriated the coaching staff.

Everything worked as it was supposed to on the play except for the quarterback. NFL coaching staffs typically dislike signal-callers who can't run the offense the way it's supposed to be run more than those who offer more big plays and more mistakes.

It's clear that Manziel has the talent to run the offense effectively, but a huge number of young quarterbacks do.

What separates the quality starters from those players who quickly crash out of the league is their consistency. The ability to make good decisions and play from the pocket on a snap-by-snap basis is crucial no matter what kind of quarterback you are. 

It may be better for Manziel if the Browns keep him on the sideline again in 2015. We don't know that for sure, though. What's best for Manziel may not be what's best for the franchise as a whole now. Before his rookie season, that would have been the case, but the quarterback hasn't bought enough equity with his performances to be invested in to that degree now.

Because of the rookie wage scale, the Browns will be able to move on from Manziel without major financial consequences if they so choose. They need to figure out if he can show signs of consistency and development on the field before they get to that point, though. 

The Browns have nothing to lose by starting Manziel but plenty to gain.