NASCAR Sprint Cup: Complete Preview and Prediction for the FedEx 400
Dover International Speedway may share the same initials as another DIS (Daytona International Speedway), but this one-mile track stands out from every one of its peers.
One of the first things that makes it unique is it’s the only all-concrete track in the Sprint Cup Series.
Tire wear is different, driver response time is different and how a car handles on concrete can be significantly different than the way it handles on asphalt.
Second, at one mile in length, DIS is a short track that thinks it’s much bigger.
Speeds are typically higher than its one-mile or shorter peers, going three- and even four-wide is routine, and it’s one of the few tracks in NASCAR that still doesn’t have lights for night racing.
Dover is definitely a unique facility that in my opinion is one of the more underrated tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit.
But while it may be an underrated track, that’s not what you can say about the racing there, which is typically tight and always unpredictable.
Think a combination of Bristol Motor Speedway, Auto Club Speedway, Richmond International Raceway and Daytona International Speedway—and you essentially have Dover International Speedway.
By the Numbers: Dover International Speedway
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FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks
Place: Dover International Speedway
Date: Sunday, May 31
Time: 1 p.m. (ET)
TV: Fox, Noon (ET)
Radio: Motor Racing Network
Distance: 400 laps, 400 miles (one-mile track)
Defending winner: Jimmie Johnson
Youngest winner: Kyle Busch on June 1, 2008 (23 years, 0 months, 30 days)
Oldest winner: Harry Gant on May 31, 1992 (52 years, four months, 21 days)
Youngest pole winner: Jeff Gordon on June 4, 1995 (23 years, 10 months, 0 days)
Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on June 3, 2012 (53 years, four months, 25 days)
Most wins: Jimmie Johnson (nine)
Most poles: David Pearson (six)
Most race starts at Dover: Ricky Rudd (56)
Most laps led: 2,976 (Jimmie Johnson)
Best average start (active driver): Ryan Newman (9.654)
Best average finish (active driver): Jimmie Johnson (8.154)
Track Notes:
- Total number of races at Dover to date: 90
- Total number of different pole winners in Dover history: 39
- Races won from pole: 13
- Race record: Mark Martin, 132.719 mph (September 21, 1997)
- Qualifying record: Brad Keselowski, 164.444 mph (June 1, 2014)
- Number of race winners in Dover history: 34
- Most Top Fives: Mark Martin (24)
- Most Top 10s: Mark Martin (33)
Key Storylines
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JJ Goes for 10
Jimmie Johnson is Dover’s all-time winningest driver, earning nine victories there, including his last in this race last season. Johnson, who is the only driver thus far this season to earn three wins, looks to increase that number to four in Sunday’s race.
"The place has always just been so unique and different for me, and the intensity required to make a lap around here, it's just fun," Johnson said about his fondness for the Monster Mile, according to Greg Guidone of WMDT 47. "There's certain tracks that just fit a guy's style, and this one fits my style."
Is It Finally Tony Time?
Tony Stewart typically starts warming up in late May or early June. And Dover is one of his favorite and more successful race tracks: In 31 starts he has three wins, 11 top fives and 17 top 10s. Interestingly, Stewart’s last Sprint Cup win to date came at Dover in spring 2013. He has gone winless in his last 53 Sprint Cup starts.
Deja vu for Martin Truex Jr.?
It has been a great season thus far for Martin Truex Jr., who has 11 top-10 finishes in the first 12 Sprint Cup races of 2015. He’s also ranked a solid second in the Cup point standings. Truex has two career wins in the Cup series, his first being at Dover in spring 2007.
Truex considers DIS his home track, having grown up in Mayetta, New Jersey, about one hour away. Can Truex finally stop knocking on victory’s door and actually push his way through on Sunday? He’s a win waiting to happen—and hopefully it happens Sunday.
Jeff Gordon Snaps 2015 Winless Streak?
In his final season as a Sprint Cup driver, Jeff Gordon hasn’t exactly had the kind of success he’d like. In the first 12 races, he has zero wins. He needs to win at least one (if not more) race in the next 14 events to qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Gordon has had great success in his career at Dover: In 44 starts, he has five wins, 18 top-five and 25 top-10 finishes. Can he earn his sixth win there Sunday?
Can Greg Biffle Keep His Momentum?
After struggles through many of the first 11 races, Greg Biffle finally had an outstanding run Sunday at Charlotte, finishing second. It’s his best finish since coming in second in last year’s spring race at Talladega.
Can he keep the Charlotte momentum going? Biffle is one of the more momentum-driven drivers on the circuit, whereby if he has a good race, he typically follows it up with another good finish the following week.
Drivers to Watch
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Joey Logano
Ever since winning the season-opening Daytona 500, Logano has failed to reach Victory Lane again. However, he still has had an excellent season thus far, with one win, six top-five and nine top-10 finishes in 12 starts.
It’s just a matter of time before he reaches Victory Lane once again. Given that he’s never won at Dover (12 starts, 0 wins, three top-five and eight top-10 finishes), Sunday would be a great day to do so—and earn his second win of the season in the process, as well.
Brad Keselowski
Dover has been kind of a hit-or-miss track for Keselowski. In 10 starts there, he has one win and four overall top-five finishes there, but that’s it. With Dover being the only all-concrete track in Sprint Cup, it takes a driver finesse to learn it and drive on it. In my mind, Keselowski is still learning and adapting to Dover, but he’ll eventually get the hang of the place.
Tony Stewart
As we said in the earlier slide, Dover is the site of Stewart’s last Sprint Cup win, back in 2013. Still mired in the worst season start of his NASCAR career, Stewart is ready to kick his bad luck to the curb and get started with some new good luck. Maybe Dover could be just what the doctor ordered for him.
Danica Patrick
I admit this is somewhat of a stretch, picking Danica Patrick as one of my top five favorites to win. In five prior starts at Dover in a Cup race, she’s never finished higher than 23rd, which came in this race last season. All told, she’s fluctuated between 23rd and 29th.
Still, I keep predicting Patrick is going to earn her first career Cup race on a short track, basically anything one mile or less. I think she can greatly surprise at Dover. What about you? What do you think?
Kurt Busch
The last time Kurt Busch was at Dover International Speedway, it led to not only a mediocre finish in the race (18th last October in the Chase for the Sprint Cup), it also was a weekend that eventually led to domestic-violence charges placed against him by former girlfriend Patricia Driscoll.
While Busch may have some bad memories of Dover because of what happened with his ex-, what better way for Busch to make a statement race than this Sunday? He has 29 career starts on the one-mile track with one win, six top fives and eight top 10s.
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Favorites
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Jimmie Johnson
When you’re a nine-time winner at any track, you more often than not are and likely will be considered among the top favorites until you retire. Johnson is right at the top of the list for this one.
Kyle Busch
Having proven this past Sunday at Charlotte that he can physically endure a long race, now is the time for Busch to get back on the winning train. A two-time winner in 20 starts at Dover (along with 13 top-10 finishes), the younger Busch brother is definitely someone to keep your eyes on Sunday.
Jeff Gordon
I still find it hard to believe that Gordon doesn’t have a win thus far in his final season in Sprint Cup. With each passing race that goes by without a visit to Victory Lane, I start to worry a little bit more that he’ll ultimately not win a race in 2015 and fail to qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Given his past success at Dover, one way to guarantee that he makes the Chase is a win there Sunday.
Kevin Harvick
Strangely, Kevin Harvick has never won a Sprint Cup race at Dover. In fact, it’s one of his less successful tracks: In 28 starts, he has zero wins, just three top-five and 12 top-10 finishes at the one-mile concrete track. Given the season he’s having, one might think Dover owes Harvick a good run, but I’m not convinced of that. If he wins on Sunday, it potentially could be one of his hardest-fought battles of the season.
Martin Truex Jr.
Given the season he’s had thus far, with 11 top-10 finishes and ranked No. 2 in the Sprint Cup standings, Truex has been a win-waiting-to-happen. What better place to do so than where he earned his first career Sprint Cup victory at eight seasons ago? Dover is his home track, and MTJ is a Dover favorite. Is there a better combination?
Dark Horse: Matt Kenseth
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With one win, four top-five and seven top-10 finishes in the first 12 starts, Matt Kenseth has flown under the radar much of this season.
Sure, he won at Bristol, but other than that, he’s really not been in the topic of points leaders very often (speaking of which, Kenseth is ranked seventh in the points heading into Dover).
In 32 career starts at Dover, he has two wins, 15 top-five and 21 top-10 finishes, so he’s established he likes—and does very well on—Dover and its one-mile concrete racetrack.
Don’t be surprised to see Kenseth and the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in Victory Lane on Sunday.
And the Winner Is: Martin Truex Jr.
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I was going to pick Jimmie Johnson, based upon his track record at Dover.
But the more I thought about it, and given how close he’s been to winning this season, what better driver to win Sunday than Martin Truex Jr.
He has a great team, crew chief, pit crew and obviously great talent himself.
This has started out as a Cinderella-like season for Truex, and if there’s any driver who deserves a win given what he’s done thus far in 2015, it’s Truex hands down.
As Truex said a few weeks ago after the race at Kansas, per USA Today's Brant James. "We've got a great team, we've got everything we need to do it and we've got a lot of confidence, so we've just got to keep getting in that position and try to close the deal."
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