Outlining a Plan for Atletico Madrid to Topple Real Madrid, Barcelona in 2015-16
When Atletico Madrid's season reaches its conclusion at Granada's Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes in less than two weeks' time, it's likely the club's 2014-15 campaign will be able to be summed up in six words: public goals attained; private goals missed.
"Our objective is finishing third," manager Diego Simeone has stressed all season, simply refusing to discuss his team's title tussle with Real Madrid and Barcelona. "Our direct rivals are Sevilla, Valencia [and] Athletic Bilbao"—a group to which Simeone had often added Villarreal at various junctures.
For good measure, the third-place-is-our-goal line was repeated by goalkeeper Miguel Angel Moya as early as last October. And before a ball had even been kicked this season, club captain Gabi was making much the same noises.
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The message behind such a stance is a simple one: Sustaining a grip over Barca and Real borders on impossible in Atleti's current state, and for the club's rise in both Spain and Europe to be prolonged, an ongoing presence in the Champions League is non-negotiable.
Essentially, it's pragmatic, big-picture thinking.
And as it stands, it looks as if that goal will be ticked off by the season's conclusion. With just two games left to play in La Liga, Los Colchoneros sit four points clear of Valencia in the race for third. A victory over relegation-threatened Granada on the final weekend would be enough (Atleti face Barcelona this weekend), regardless of what Nuno Espirito Santo's men do against Celta Vigo and Almeria.
But privately, there will be a certain degree of emptiness in the Atletico camp when the curtain falls on the current campaign. Their Copa del Rey charge was halted by Barcelona. Their Champions League push was ended by Real Madrid. And their league title defence has realistically been over since mid-March, when Sevilla, Valencia and Espanyol held Simeone's men to three consecutive draws.
After the highs of last season, the third-place "trophy" alone won't feel at all satisfying behind closed doors. Not for a team marshalled by Simeone, a man who leads his players like he's Gerard Butler in 300, Spartans behind him ready to take on the Persian God-King and his army.
Thus, Atleti's priority now is to retool, restructure and bulk up for another arduous battle in 2015-16. The goal this time: first, not third.
It won't be easy, of course. But you sense Simeone and Atletico wouldn't want it any other way.
Importantly, the club has already taken the biggest step it could by securing the services of its edgy and talismanic manager for another five years. Indeed, the 12 characters of "#SIMEONE2020" might be the most important the club has put together in decades.
But the Argentinian and those around him now have considerable work to do. For Simeone has been backed to make Atletico Madrid Europe's next rising power, not to maintain some kind of second-tier homeostasis. Thus, intense planning is need. And the club's plans, in every department, will revolve around one question: How does Simeone think he can win?
When he arrived in late 2011, his vision for that was clear and uncomplicated: "I like an aggressive team. I want to see a team that is strong, committed and quick on the break." Three years in advance, he was describing his title-winning outfit of last season.
But the current campaign has witnessed a shift in that regard, one born out of necessity rather than desire. Having reluctantly waved goodbye to Diego Costa, the arrival of Mario Mandzukic has forced Simeone and Atleti to change. They've still been aggressive, physical and in-your-face, but the way they actually play is different.
In 2014-15, Atleti's possession figures are up. A higher defensive line has been needed. The full-backs have had to push on more. The onus on Arda Turan and Koke to create in general play has increased.
In short, a reworked method has been devised to accommodate the less mobile Mandzukic, a target-man sort of striker. But it's meant that Atletico have found themselves in an uncomfortable middle ground, caught somewhere between their preference for deep-lying, counter-attacking football and a possession-based approach.
It's not an identity crisis, but the club need to go one of two ways: fast-track the transition or abort it. For Atletico, the former is idealistic, the latter more practical. And you sense Simeone will—and he should—opt for the second of those.
Hastening the shift toward a possession-based method would force Simeone to make major changes to the squad—Los Colchoneros simply don't have the personnel at present to complete that process. Additionally, pursuing that transition would enter Atleti into the part of the transfer market in which they can't compete.
Potentially two steps back, and no guarantees there'd be any forward.
Alternatively, reverting to the approach of 2013-14 has three major upsides: less tinkering is required, they know it well, and it works. And what's more, Atleti aren't going to beat Real Madrid or Barcelona at their own game; it's their own distinct method that they need. There's no point in trying to outplay, outpass and outgun Spain's "big two."
For his part, Simeone has already demonstrated he's thinking exactly that, pursuing Paris Saint-Germain's Edinson Cavani to spearhead his attack, according to L'Equipe and ESPN FC. Whether or not he'll be able to land the Uruguayan remains unclear (Elche's powerful Jonathas could prove just as suitable for a fraction of the cost), but you can see the intent: Simeone wants another Costa-esque focal point.
The acquisition of such a striker would give Atletico the club's ideal front two: a hard-running centre-forward flanked by Antoine Griezmann.
Boom.
Yet, it's not the team's attack that would most benefit from such a combination; instead, it would be the defence, Atleti's calling card that has slipped this season.
To best understand the impact that Costa's departure has had on Atleti, you only need to watch two recent clashes with Barcelona—the 1-0 Champions League victory last season and the 3-1 league defeat in January.
In the first, Atleti are compact, uncompromising and impossible to break down, catching the Catalans on the break. In the second, they're higher up the pitch, spread out and caught chasing a surging Barca themselves—exactly the opposite of Simeone's spelled-out vision.
It is, therefore, all about the front man for Atletico. They're what you might call striker-dependant—everything is determined by the guy leading the line. Capture the right type, and Atleti can return to that blueprint for 2015-16. Robust. Organised. Deep-sitting. Lethal on the break. Infuriating for opponents.
At the Vicente Calderon, it's the composition of the attack that determines the strength of the defence, rather than the other way around. And that's not just relevant for tussles with Atletico's title rivals. This season, it's been the defensive lapses against Celta Vigo, Valencia, Real Sociedad and Villarreal that have put significant dents in their league campaign.
If Atletico are able to secure the forward they need—and that's still a big if—subsequent moves would become straightforward and complementary. More importantly, fewer would be needed, which is critical for an outfit without the resources belonging to the game's elite.
In defence, the possible return of Filipe Luis would solve the club's left-back problem, but little else would need addressing. In the middle, the gradual evolution of Koke into a central playmaker, aided by the still-present Turan and Saul Niguez, would suffice (in the short-term) as a creative supply line for a dynamic forward pairing. All that might be necessary is a more youthful holding option to supplant Gabi or Tiago.
And up front, Fernando Torres, whose loan spell will continue until the end of next season, has demonstrated he's an adequate back-up forward.
Of course, in a long-term sense, considerably more will be needed; matching it with Real Madrid and Barcelona is an endless and tiring war. But more will come as Atleti's gradual emergence from a financial black hole continues.
In the meantime, it's about returning to the very essence of their 2013-14 identity, the one neither Real or Barca could master. And all of it could fall into place if Simeone can find that one type of player he longs for.
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