Odds to Win the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race: Handicapping the Field

The 17 drivers who make up the pre-All-Star Race roster are just fun to look at. Gone are the fluff of 43 cars, and what’s left are proven winners who are looking to see who’s the best of the best.

Jamie McMurray won this race a year ago for his only win of the season, but it’s a good one nonetheless even though it technically didn't count. It didn’t vault him into the Chase, but he can always say he won it.

There are still three spots open for the race: the winners of two Friday night shootouts and a fan vote to bring the All-Star field to 20.

For now, let’s examine the 17 drivers and how they stack up.

The Long Shots

John Raoux/Associated Press

Aric Almirola: 75-1

Aric Almirola sneaks into this race thanks to last year’s red-flag victory in the Coke Zero 400 when rain poured down on Daytona.

Does he have a shot at winning? Sure, given that his average start in 2015 is 25, and his average finish is 15.6. That speaks to a guy who is getting the most out of his car and racing above his qualifying.

AJ Allmendinger: 65-1

Is Charlotte Motor Speedway a road course?

AJ Allmendinger shines on road courses, but when it comes to the speedways, he’s just another middle-of-the-packer.

His average finish is 20.5, but he does have two top 10s this year.

Kyle Busch: 50-1

In any other year Kyle Busch would be a contender, but given that he’s coming back after suffering nasty leg injuries during a SAFER barrier-less crash on the eve of the Daytona 500, his chances of winning are slim at best.

"It would have been great back in February to say we were looking at the All-Star Race, but truthfully not a lot of people would have bet I could be back by then," said Busch in Bob Pockrass’ ESPN.com column.

He is back, maybe too soon—and certainly too soon to win.

Tony Stewart: 40-1

This is how an aging star performs: poorly. Stewart, a three-time Sprint Cup Champion, just can’t put it together. His skills are eroding before our eyes.

It seems the sport has passed him by, but at least he can boast that he’s both teammate and owner with/of Kevin Harvick’s No. 4 car.

The Dark Horses

David Tulis/Associated Press

Ryan Newman: 35-1

Ryan Newman hasn’t won a race in a long time, but he’s always a threat. His average finish in 2015 is 11.9, and he’s earned four top fives.

Newman’s team failed a tire audit after its race at Fontana. He was docked 50 championship points and lost his crew chief Luke Lambert to suspension.

Newman will compete—as he always does—but getting to the front has been close to impossible for the No. 31 car.

Jamie McMurray: 30-1

McMurray is the defending champion. He won the race by leading 31 laps and outdueling Carl Edwards. McMurray said in an Associated Press story, via ESPN.com:

"

As a kid, that is what you grew up wanting to do, is have a shootout like that and have a possibility to race for 10 laps. He got a little bit of a jump on me on the restart and I was able to hang on to his quarter panel, and when we kept entering Turn 1 and 3, I was like, `It is for a million bucks. If we wreck, it's not that big of a deal.'

It's so cool to come out on top."

"

Not a big deal?

Anyway, McMurray has had some strong finishes this year, but not so much to put him into the “contender” category.

Kasey Kahne: 25-1

Kasey Kahne knows what winning this race means. It was a huge boost for him back in 2008 when he won this race coming from the back of the pack.

In an ESPN.com story written by Bob Pockrass, Kahne said, “I'm pretty sure my confidence was low. I hadn't won in a while, and things weren't going great. After that win, the confidence boosted on my side, the team side and for the next month, we were as fast as anyone in the sport."

Kahne has just one top-five finish this year and could use another win in this race to propel him forward this season.

Contenders

Ed Zurga/Getty Images

Jeff Gordon: 25-1

Jeff Gordon has a solid record at Charlotte with five wins in Cup races. That homey feel should help him be a contender here.

He has two top fives this season with both of them coming in the past four races. It could be that he’s ready to turn a corner in this farewell season, and that starts with the All-Star Race.

Carl Edwards: 20-1

Edwards was runner-up in this event a year ago—and a former winner—and he could really use a morale boost.

In 2015, his average start is 11.1, and his average finish is 20.5. Driving with a new team has done nothing to ease the pressure, but he’s one of the best drivers when he’s on.

The wins will come, and maybe that win comes at Charlotte.

Matt Kenseth: 18-1

Matt Kenseth finally got in the win column this year after going winless in 2014.

He’s driving like the former Cup champion he is with that one win and three top fives.

Kenseth is a quiet assassin, as most assassins are, one would presume.

Kurt Busch: 15-1

Take Kurt Busch off the shelf, wind him up and turn him loose. After missing the first three races with a suspension, he came back in midseason form.

His average finish this year is 9.0 with a win in the Toyota Owners 400. When he’s on, which feels like every week, he can run up near the front all day, and that makes him the best Stewart-Haas driver not named Harvick.

Denny Hamlin: 13-1

Denny Hamlin has been struggling since he won the STP 500. Over that time he has finishes of 41, 22 and 26 and has only five led laps.

Still, he is always a threat—unless he injures his neck—and he is right at home at Charlotte with four top fives and one pole in Cup races.

Brad Keselowski: 11-1

Brad Keselowski has stood on the doormat of victory in this race but hasn’t quite cracked the code.

FoxSports.com’s Tom Jensen wrote, "During his championship season of 2012, Keselowski was runner-up to—who else?—Jimmie Johnson in the all-star race. The following year, he made it just two of 90 laps before retiring with transmission woes. Team Penske has won this race only once."

The No. 2 car can be sneaky quick. Watch out for Keselowski late.

The Favorites

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 9-1

It’s been 15 years since Junior won this race, and the way his No. 88 car is handling this year he could add his second one.

He has six top fives and one win for Hendrick Motorsports and has had decent success at Charlotte with five top-five finishes in Cup races.

Joey Logano: 8-1

The Daytona 500 winner kind of gets lost in the shuffle. There’s the ever-present Harvick locking up top twos seemingly every week. Jimmie Johnson leads the circuit with three wins, yet Joey Logano keeps cranking out solid finishes.

He has nine top 10s in 11 races and four poles and has led 447 laps.

Overlook Sliced Bread at your own risk.

Kevin Harvick: 7-1

Harvick won this race back in 2007. It's a long time coming, and the way his No. 4 Chevy performs week to week, he could be in for a monster effort here.

Chances are he’ll finish second because he has five of them this year to go along with two wins. He’s been dominant on 1.5-mile tracks but so has…

Jimmie Johnson: 5-1

He’s a four-time winner of this event and a seven-time winner at Charlotte in Cup races.

That’s all the analysis you need, really.

All right, a little more.

Of late, Johnson has been Harvickian. Here are his finishes in the past five races: first, second, third, second, first.

And now he goes to Charlotte where he has a hard time losing.

All odds were provided by the author and all stats unless otherwise noted came from NASCAR.com.