Hawks' Season Rides on Reclaiming Identity in Game 4 vs. Wizards
Without a resilient showing in Game 4 against the Washington Wizards, the Atlanta Hawks will be casualties of second-round chaos—their record-setting 82-game campaign at risk of becoming a footnote on a postseason framed by a precipitous decline.
All year long, the Hawks have been strangers to strife. They won a franchise-record 60 games, locked up the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed with three weeks left in the regular season and lost back-to-back games just five times.
Adversity may run in the franchise's bloodstream when it comes to on-court success, but this season was different. Hurdles were few and far between, and even when they did crop up, the Hawks cleared them with relative ease.
Now facing a 2-1 series deficit, their mettle is being tested in ways that would have been unimaginable during an idyllic regular season.
The offense is flatlining—evidenced by a second-round worst 41.7 percent shooting—and bumps, bruises and illnesses have hindered the team's ability to look like the spry unit that became known for launching shots with unwavering confidence.
Those glitches in the Hawks' seemingly flawless mainframe have subsequently put them in a hole. According to WhoWins.com, historical trends indicate Washington's 2-1 series lead gives it an 81.8 percent chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
That's not an insurmountable deficit, but it will become one if the Hawks drop Game 4. The same data shows squads able to establish 3-1 series leads go on to win 96.4 percent of the time.
Either way, history isn't on the Hawks' side.
That's not to say a comeback won't be in the cards.
While the Hawks haven't been forced to play from behind much this season, their stunning fourth-quarter comeback in Saturday's 103-101 Game 3 loss sent a stern message—one laced with warnings regarding their perceived forfeiture of superior status.
During a fourth quarter that saw Atlanta outscore Washington by 17 points, the Hawks' bench mob (plus Kyle Korver) erased a 21-point deficit and mounted a 17-0 charge ultimately deemed moot by Paul Pierce's buzzer-beater.
"The way the group that finished played, we're going to have to play like that," head coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Mark Bradley.
And the way that group played was confidently.
In a strange twist, the Hawks' starters have been sapped of their ability to bomb with aplomb, and the team has been incapable of finding a comfortable rhythm as a result.
Three games into their second-round tilt with the Wizards, Atlanta's starters are shooting 39.8 percent from the field—the worst mark of any second-round starting five. Those struggles have been confounded by 31.1 percent shooting from three, which is a distant departure from that group's 40.4 percent regular-season knockdown rate.
The style of play that got them to this point has remained at the forefront of Budenholzer's attack, to be sure. Atlanta's still moving the ball at a wicked pace and is assisting on 72.7 percent of its total baskets—11 percent clear of the second-place Los Angeles Clippers.
Plus, it's not like the Hawks are struggling to get their shooters open against a stifling Wizards defense. Yes, Washington's defense has done a commendable job, but the Hawks' futility boils down to an inability to hit open shots.
Period.
And if that sounds overly simplistic, well, it is. But that's because the Hawks don't need to make any major adjustments. What they need is progression to the mean.
This pattern just doesn't make sense.
| Very Tight (0-2 Feet) | 45.6 | 0.00 |
| Tight (2-4 Feet) | 47.5 | 41.2 |
| Open (4-6 Feet) | 40.0 | 34.6 |
| Wide Open (6+ Feet) | 33.3 | 30.4 |
It's a cruel irony, of course. The Hawks captured the East's top spot by blitzing opponents with barrages of threes that came via clean looks, and now those same shots are the bane of Atlanta's existence.
In fact, the Hawks have attempted 46 wide-open threes to this point in the series, which is the most of any team that's qualified for the semifinals.
So again, volume isn't the problem. The Hawks' offense has facilitated more than enough looks that would be considered optimal.
The key for Atlanta may very well be Kyle Korver's ability to set the tone from beyond the arc. When he hit at least four threes during the regular season, the Hawks went 22-5. Not coincidentally, Korver drilled four triples in Game 2 and the Hawks won, 106-90.
"The Wizards succeeded in part by taking Kyle Korver out of the equation," Hawks.com's KL Chouinard wrote after Game 3. "They did it not so much by making him miss shots, but instead by keeping him sealed from even getting to the ball. Korver finished with six points on just five shot attempts."
Korver, whose season has been defined by excellence from the depths of the three-point line, will continue acting as the team's human litmus test for success.
Combating a sudden offensive malaise, but with Game 3 lodged in their collective memory, the Hawks know the effort it'll take to avoid a 3-1 deficit.
"To have a visual of what it takes (to play well) is always a positive," Budenholzer said, per Bradley. "The feeling that was there for the majority of the game is also there, too."
Now it's time to make that blueprint come alive for 48 minutes.
Because if it doesn't, the odds will be too steep for Atlanta to salvage a season that once appeared to be loaded with championship promise.
All statistics are current as of May 10 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
Alec Nathan covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @AlecBNathan.
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