Envisioning Indianapolis Colts' Starting Lineup for 2015 Season
Though depth is key to any NFL team's postseason chances, the starting lineup is where the money is made.
For the Indianapolis Colts, the starting lineup has been in flux over the last three years, as the team has rebuilt from a 2-14 season in 2011. With as many returning players as ever in 2015, it would seem like the starting lineups are staying fairly consistent.
But make no mistake, there are plenty of new faces incoming. Whether it's skill positions like running back or wide receiver, or continued shuffling in the trenches, the Colts have made strides in improving the depth as well as the starting lineup this offseason.
With the draft complete, the Colts roster is complete, for the vast majority. So with most of the pieces in place, who can we project to start come August?
Quarterback
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Starter: Andrew Luck
In a shocking revelation, fourth-year quarterback Andrew Luck will start for the Colts in 2015.
I know, I was surprised too.
Luck's statistics took a step forward last season, as the Colts passing attack reached new heights as offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton chose to unleash Luck in a downfield passing offense instead of clinging to a power-run game.
Finishing first in touchdowns was the highlight for Luck, but he also finished in the top 10 in passer rating, YPA, Adj. YPA, Net YPA, Adj. Net YPA, TD percentage, sack percentage, DYAR and Expected Points Added. Luck hasn't always had the efficiency stats to match up with his gaudy yardage totals and reputation, but he began to take that step in 2014.
Watch for him to continue to progress in 2015 with a more advanced knowledge of defenses and a better-equipped offense.
Running Back
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Starter: Frank Gore
There is no chance of Trent Richardson starting for the Colts in 2015, and that's really the best news to take from this offseason.
The Colts have been criticized for their offensive line for years, but the team has been able to run the ball fairly effectively when handing off to somebody besides Richardson. So, while Frank Gore won't be running behind the San Francisco offensive line any longer, that doesn't mean his average will dive any time soon.
Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 4.7 yards per carry last season, and Dan Herron ran for 4.5. Expect Gore to be closer to those numbers in 2015, especially if the Colts get any consistency from the offensive line.
Wide Receiver
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X-Receiver: Andre Johnson
Y-Receiver: T.Y. Hilton
Slot Receiver: Phillip Dorsett
Wide receiver is seeing as much turnover as any position this offseason, with longtime starter Reggie Wayne and free-agent disappointment Hakeem Nicks leaving. While Andre Johnson has been discussed as Reggie Wayne's replacement, he will effectively replace Nicks in the Colts' three-WR sets as the X-receiver.
Dorsett will likely take Wayne's slot role, although the offense will likely be re-tooled to account for his speed. With T.Y. Hilton, Luck's favorite receiver for the third-consecutive season, and Dorsett on the field together, the Colts will be able to stretch defenses while simultaneously having an underneath yards-after-catch monster on the field.
Throw in Johnson's prowess as a possession receiver and in intermediate routes, and the Colts should be able to test defenses at every level at any given time.
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Tight End
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Receiving Tight End: Coby Fleener
Tight End/H-Back: Dwayne Allen
The Colts' dynamic duo returns at tight end, with the two starters having unique but very complementary roles once again.
After experimenting a bit more with Fleener split outside and in the slot even more in 2014, it wouldn't surprise anybody to see the fourth-year tight end take more snaps out wide in 2015. Meanwhile, Allen could get even more snaps at H-back and fullback, especially without a true fullback on the roster.
It's a big season for both tight ends, with contract negotiations coming next offseason. Fleener must prove that he can be more consistent and have the capability to take over games, while Allen needs to stay healthy and play at peak performance.
The Colts want to keep both players long term, but the money will decide a lot of that next spring.
Offensive Line
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Left Tackle: Anthony Castonzo
Left Guard: Jack Mewhort
Center: Khaled Holmes
Right Guard: Todd Herremans
Right Tackle: Gosder Cherilus
Last season, the Colts had one of the league's most inconsistent offensive lines. The Colts' continuity score, according to Football Outsiders, was the second-worst since 2000 as the team started 10 different players and had 11 different lineups.
Hopefully that changes in 2015.
Anthony Castonzo and Jack Mewhort return as the anchors on the left side, while I project Khaled Holmes to win the starting battle with Jonotthan Harrison at center. Newly-signed Todd Herremans has the experience to beat out Hugh Thornton at right guard, and Gosder Cherilus should start if he's healthy.
That health is the one thing that could derail this line. If Cherilus isn't able to recover, Mewhort could slide over to right tackle. Or, the Colts also have Herremans and Joe Reitz as potential swing tackles. The team has plenty of decent pieces, it's just a matter of getting them enough time on the field together to have any kind of chemistry.
Defensive Line
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5-Tech DE: Kendall Langford
Nose Tackle: Josh Chapman
3-Tech DT: Arthur Jones
The Colts lost defensive leader Cory Redding to free agency, and while that could have more ramifications than anybody wants to admit, his age was making it a necessary move.
In his stead is former Rams and Dolphins lineman Kendall Langford. While Langford hasn't been particularly impressive in recent years, his versatility and experience in both 4-3 and 3-4 defenses is enticing. The Colts run a multiple-front defense, with just as many four-man lines as three, and he could be valuable in that sense, although replacing Redding both from a production and leadership standpoint is a tall task.
Josh Chapman could face competition from fifth-round draft pick David Parry for the starting spot, but I fully expect the incumbent to win that battle, at least at first.
The big change this season needs to be Arthur Jones, who disappointed while hampered by injuries last year. The Colts paid for him to be a playmaker in the 2014 free-agency sweepstakes, and he needs to start living up to his five-year, $33 million contract. Jones was the Colts' second-worst defender last season, according to Pro Football Focus' grading system.
Linebackers
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Rush OLB: Trent Cole
Right ILB (WILL): Jerrell Freeman
Left ILB (MIKE): D'Qwell Jackson
Strong OLB: Erik Walden
While the inside linebackers will stay pretty much the same with Jerrell Freeman returning on a one-year tender and veteran D'Qwell Jackson staying on his contract, the outside linebacker could have an influx of pass-rushing ability in 2015.
Not only did Trent Cole sign a two-year contract, the team also has Robert Mathis returning from injury. But with the injury, Walden could start the season, with the team easing Mathis in. Once he's healthy, a lineup of Mathis as the rush linebacker and Cole as the strong-side linebacker could provide a lot of playmaking on the field at once.
Still, it's hard to project how much Cole and Mathis will provide at their age, and the team could end up with Jonathan Newsome stepping into a starting role by the end of the season.
Cornerbacks
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Right CB: Vontae Davis
Left CB: Greg Toler
Slot CB: Darius Butler
One of the few groups to have virtually no turnover, the Colts have the same trio returning as the "starting" group at cornerback. While Butler won't start in the base defense, he'll play in any nickel and dime situations, which is used almost as much as the base defense in Indianapolis.
With Davis being a returning Pro Bowler and Butler being a solid slot, the Colts really just need a bit more consistency from Toler in order to have one of the better cornerback groups in the league.
The team did draft D'Joun Smith at the top of the third round, and he could replace Toler long term, but he should be a dime corner in 2015, with the potential of being the slot corner in case of injury.
Safety
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Strong Safety: Dwight Lowery
Free Safety: Mike Adams
Indianapolis made a smart move by re-signing Mike Adams in free agency, as the 2014 Pro Bowl alternate was one of the pillars of stability last season.
Adams isn't a top playmaker by any means, but he's consistent and often is in the right place at the right time to take advantage of poor quarterback decisions. His age (34) won't allow him to be that starting player for much longer, but the Colts will take advantage of it as long as they can.
At strong safety, there could be an interesting battle between fourth-round draft pick Clayton Geathers and Dwight Lowery, but for now I'll give the edge to Lowery, an eight-year veteran who started 15 games for Atlanta last year.
Specialists
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Kicker: Adam Vinatieri
Punter: Pat McAfee
Long-Snapper: Matt Overton
The All-Star trio returns in 2015, after Overton signed a four-year, $4 million extension this offseason. Both Vinatieri and McAfee made the Pro Bowl in 2014, quite deservedly.
The Colts had one of their best special teams units in the last 15 years, finishing eighth in special teams DVOA from Football Outsiders, despite having virtually zero production from punt or kick returns. Vinatieri and McAfee are two of the best at their positions, and it gives the Colts a much-appreciated sense of security.
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