John Wall's Injury Puts Washington Wizards in Desperation Mode
John Wall's injury changes everything for the Washington Wizards.
Further examinations of the All-Star point guard's left hand and wrist have revealed that he's suffering from five non-displaced fractures, according to Monumental Network. The announcement came after Wall was scratched from Game 2 of Washington's playoff series with the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday, and his status for the rest of this matchup has yet to be determined.
There is absolutely no way to put a positive spin on this latest setback. That Wall's shooting wrist is fine remains the lone saving grace. That might allow him to play.
Heck, he was even feeling kind-of-sort-of better before sitting out.
"When I'm out there, I'm out there for a reason," Wall said on Tuesday, per CSNWashington.com's J. Michael. "The swelling has gone down. The pain is decreasing, not increasing."
To wit: Even if Wall plays, he's still playing injured. And in the event he doesn't play, well, the Wizards are toast. Mincemeat. A playoff steppingstone over which the Hawks will easily leap, as they did in their 106-90 Game 2 victory.
That was just a small taste of what could await the Wizards without Wall, or even with a half-healthy Wall. Though they did a nice job enveloping Atlanta's primary point guards, Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder, they struggled on the offensive end, sputtering and stumbling without Wall's preeminent playmaking abilities.
Effective scorers such as Marcin Gortat and Paul Pierce depend on him to create a bulk of their scoring opportunities. Wall had assisted on 64.7 percent of Gortat's made baskets during the postseason leading into Game 2 and 38.5 percent of Pierce's.
Gortat specifically struggled without Wall drawing his defender into the paint. Almost 65 percent of the center's looks came from inside five feet heading into Game 2. Only five of those close-range looks were readily available in Wall's absence.
And it's not just Pierce and Gortat who rely on Wall. The entire offense leans on his explosive drives and pinpoint passing to function at a high level. He's assisting on a postseason-best 51.8 percent of Washington's converted buckets when on the floor, a truly staggering number that implies disaster without him.
Consider Washington's past record when Wall doesn't play, per ESPN Stats & and Info:
That's not a trend the Wizards are equipped to buck, even now.
In the 191 playoff minutes Wall logged thus far, the Wizards outscored opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions. That net rating plunges to a plus-0.5 when he steps off the floor.
Serial optimists will be quick to point out a positive differential, however slight, can still generate wins. Which is true.
Here's the thing: That plus-0.5 takes into account Washington's first-round sweep of the Toronto Raptors, a broken team. The Wizards can survive without Wall so long as they're facing a clearly inferior opponent.
So, not the Hawks.
The Wizards were actually a plus-18.5 without Wall in the playoffs entering Game 2, thanks to a microscopic sample size of 54 minutes. Tack on the 48 minutes they played without him in that contest, and they're on the verge of dropping into the red.
That decline will only worsen as the Wizards spend more time without their superstar floor general, just as it did throughout the regular season, per Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal:
Backup point guard Ramon Sessions isn't going to neutralize the disadvantages Wall's injury creates. Washington is being outscored by 16.6 points per 100 possessions when he runs point with the other four starters, and his overall dribble penetration doesn't command nearly as much respect, making offensive sets that much easier to defend.
What a healthy Wall does for the Wizards is unequivocally irreplaceable.
Bradley Beal can still go off, Otto Porter's sophomore resurgence can continue, and Pierce can keep on busting out the playoff time machine, but the Wizards are not the same without Wall. And because he's indispensable, even an injured version of Wall is unlikely to cut it.
Although it's his nondominant hand that is hurt, his game isn't based on shooting. Nearly 70 percent of his postseason shot attempts have come outside the restricted area, of which he's hit just 31.4 percent:
The Wizards aren't counting on him to make or, for that matter, take those shots. They bank on him reaching the rim, not so he can just shoot—something he may now be hesitant to do—but so he can disrupt the Hawks' defensive flow, forcing them to collapse at the expense of other assignments.
As Brandon Parker wrote for The Washington Post:
"A lot of Wall’s success stems from dominating the ball — he led the NBA in touches per game with 95.3 during the regular season — but his ultimate goal is still typically to find an open teammate. In Game 1, Wall passed the ball 80 times, resulting in 13 assists and 17-for-37 shooting. Sessions moved the ball to his fellow Wizards at almost the same pace (70 passes) in Game 2, but his passes didn’t necessarily have the same purpose. The usual backup tallied four assists and just 5-for-11 shooting.
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Losing Wall, or soldiering on with an injured Wall, is a huge loss on the most fundamental levels. He's the Wizards' most important player, and his well-being has been compromised against the NBA's second-best regular-season team.
Yes, stealing home-court advantage in Game 1 should help the Wizards recover from the latest blow. They'll be on friendly grounds for Games 3 and 4, playing in front of an electric crowd that can emotionally offset the new realty they're forced to endure.
But these are not the same Wizards anymore. The offense was only just starting to find its way, and their chances of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals, perhaps even the NBA Finals, had never been better.
Iman Shumpert is banged up for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Kevin Love is done for the season. The Chicago Bulls are on a perpetual roller coaster. The Hawks themselves have been up and down offensively as they try to navigate substandard shooting performances from Jeff Teague (36.3 percent) and Paul Millsap (42.5 percent), as well as a suddenly humanized Kyle Korver (41.1 percent).
Now the Wizards are in a similar boat as they enter desperation mode with Wall worse for wear. Not only are they wondering if they can win without him, but they're trying to figure out if he, as currently injured, can even be the ultimate difference-maker anymore.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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