Texas' Myles Turner Could Be the Biggest Risk-Reward Pick of 2015 NBA Draft

In one year at Texas, Myles Turner flashed the upside that's likely to draw top-10-pick looks for the 2015 NBA draft.

The buzz quickly started to build around him after just his fifth career game, when he went for 25 points and 10 rebounds against St. Francis on November 25. 

But as the season progressed, some concerns began to arise.

Inconsistency became a turnoff. A few weaknesses in his game suddenly were exposed. His outlook as a future pro started being questioned and doubted.

However, there is also reason to believe Turner may actually be one-of-a-kind.

Between his physical tools and skill set, the ceiling he had established early in the year remains intact. If Turner ever hits his stride and makes the necessary improvements, we could eventually be drooling over his two-way versatility. 

The Potential Reward

There are a number of disruptive NBA rim protectors. And we're starting to see more and more stretch big men up front. But there aren't many centers categorized as stretch rim protectors. 

Turner ultimately possesses the rare ability to block shots and play out on the perimeter offensively. 

Ed Zurga/Getty Images

At 6'11" with a 7'4" wingspan, he has NBA center size and length, as well as some terrific defensive instincts around the basket. Turner swatted 2.6 shots in only 22.2 minutes per game (4.7 blocks per 40 minutes). 

Of the one-and-done centers taken over the past 10 years, his block percentage ranks up there with some of the best. And it's a number that's translated quite well to NBA success.

Turner also did a nice job of cleaning the glass, having pulled in 11.8 boards per 40 minutes and registered a solid 16.7 percent rebounding percentage, per Sports-Reference.com.

Though his minutes, touches and numbers fluctuated throughout the season, Turner was also fairly productive on offense, having averaged 18.3 points per 40 minutes (10.1 points in 22.2 minutes).

He flashed an unusually high comfort level for a big man on the perimeter, where he showcased a clean, confident jump shot. The fact that he made 83.9 percent of his free throws highlights his touch and mechanics when set.

Turner hit 17 threes and demonstrated the footwork to separate, rise and fire with various jab steps and pull-backs. With a high release and quick trigger, he rarely gave his defender a chance to challenge.

Having the ability to consistently score away from the hoop and anchor a defense in the middle would go a long way toward his NBA value. That's the upside teams will be thinking about this June, when many general managers will have to decide whether the potential reward is worth the risk in the lottery.

The Risk

Despite excellent physical measurements, Turner's mobility isn't exactly graceful. He made just six buckets at the rim in transition all season, per Hoop-Math.com. His feet look heavy, both when he runs the floor and attempts to elevate off the ground. It makes you wonder whether his shot-creating, finishing or defensive ability will be affected. 

"There's been a lot of questions concerning the way I run or that I'm prone to injury in the long term. So I just wanna show that I'm in full shape and ready to go," Turner told Hoops Hype's Raul Barrigon.

A lack of strength is also well-documented, but at 19 years old, he still has time to put on bulk.

ESPN's Fran Fraschilla's touched on Turner's physical flaws and deficiencies: "NBA scouts I have talked to describe Turner as a 'high hips' guy in the post, meaning his narrow base will make him easy to move off the lane. Ideally, at some point in his career he will be able to add the necessary 25 pounds or so that will enable him to battle inside."

The other question tied to Turner revolves around his offensive fit and development. 

Inside the arc, he struggles to create high-percentage looks—something coaches should expect from their center. Turner made just 51.3 percent of his two-pointers, which is a low number for a big man. 

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

As DraftExpress' Derek Bodner points out, while Turner posted up on around 40 percent of his half-court possessions, "a very significant portion of those, especially over his right shoulder, are turnaround jump shots out of the post, which he finds mixed results with."

Many of his go-to moves actually result in fairly difficult or low-percentage shots. And though he appeared comfortable with the jumper, he only made 27.4 percent of his 62 three-point attempts. He clearly still has a long way to go before earning a green light from long range. 

Turner's value would take a serious hit if he evolved into a big man who shot closer to 40 percent than 50 percent from the floor. 

It's also impossible to ignore his lack of success against noteworthy competition. He had a couple of huge lines against inferior opponents like Lipscomb (26 points, nine rebounds, six blocks) and Texas Tech (25 points, 12 rebounds). But it was a different story when Texas took on more credible teams and defenses.

	Games	Field-Goal Percentage	Points per game
Versus Unranked Opponents	20	.503	11.6
Versus Ranked Opponents	14	.376	8.0

Risk vs. Reward

General managers face a big question in the draft: When is the potential reward with Turner worth chasing?

If he hits, chances are a team lands a long-term starter and cornerstone at center. His size and length check out, as do his skill level and defensive production. 

But there is also a chance that Turner struggles with the NBA's speed, athleticism and physicality. And that could diminish his strengths and prevent him from tapping into them. 

The risk he poses may keep him out of the top nine in the 2015 draft, but his upside should make him fair game anywhere after that. Consider Turner one of this year's bigger boom-or-bust prospects.