Colts' 1st-Round Selection of Phillip Dorsett Shows True Focus of 2015 Draft

If you're honest with yourself, you looked twice when the Indianapolis Colts drafted Phillip Dorsett out of Miami on Thursday night.

You looked twice, rubbed your eyes and looked again. If you were a Colts fan, you most likely hit something, threw something or uttered some kind of profanity. At the very least, you got a puzzled look on your face, one that may have been frozen there for a few minutes.

Phillip Dorsett? A wide receiver? A SMALL wide receiver?

You had several defenders written on your shortlist of hopeful targets, maybe an offensive lineman or two, but never a receiver.

Maybe you went to sleep that night and were able to talk yourself into it a little more. Maybe you were still angry. You probably calmed down a little bit on Friday when the Colts took two straight defenders, especially Henry Anderson, a pick that has been universally praised for its value. By the time Saturday rolled around and eventually crawled to a conclusion, your head may have cleared a little bit. You could get on board with this draft, even the Dorsett pick.

Then you started reading draft grades from around the web on Sunday and Monday. Maybe the homer in you stiffened, and you just got angry at the local and national media questioning the Colts' selection of Phillip Dorsett.

But still, somewhere deep down, you knew they were right.

What was Ryan Grigson thinking? Why couldn't he just have picked Malcom Brown, who the Patriots—of course it was the Patriots—selected just a few picks later? Why couldn't he have picked Landon Collins, who local beat writers have been propping up like they were 'Bama publicists for weeks? Why couldn't he have just picked someone that made sense?

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Just look at the obvious: The Colts couldn't stop the run last year, and if you can't stop the run, you can't make a deep playoff run, much less a Super Bowl. We all know that the Colts allowed 177 rushing yards to the Patriots in that 45-7 loss in the AFC Championship Game, just the latest in a long string of embarrassing losses at the hands of New England.

But, I guess...I guess they did stop the run in the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Bengals running back duo only ran for 53 combined yards, and C.J. Anderson ran for just 80 yards, 16 short of his average since earning the starting job in Week 9.

For the season, the Colts might have been slightly below average, finishing at 18th in yards allowed per game and 19th in defensive DVOA against the run, but it's not like it was a huge crippling problem any more so than a weakness every team has.

Maybe the run defense was more of a specific matchup problem against New England than a glaring, season-ruining trait.

Well, what about an offensive lineman? The Colts desperately needed to draft a lineman early this year, because they need to add a run game that can take some of the load off of Andrew Luck's shoulders.

Of course, the Colts did rush for over five yards per carry in the AFC Championship Game, and it didn't do them much good. And, of course, Dan Herron ran for 4.5 yards per carry behind last year's offensive line, while Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 4.7 yards per carry.

That's not to say the line couldn't use some upgrades in run-blocking. It certainly could. But maybe the problem was mostly with Trent Richardson, and better running backs and situational play-calling could lift the run game to passable levels.

Okay, but you can't ignore the fact that the Colts need to protect Andrew Luck more! He took way too many hits last year and was pressured on almost every snap. If there's a weak link on the offense, that's it.

But, I guess there is something to say about the fact that the Colts did have one of the lowest sack rates in the league. That's more about Andrew Luck than anything else, but even the Colts' pressure rate of 78.2 percent, according to Pro Football Focus, was just below average, not the gaping hole that some would make it seem.

This is the offensive line, after all, that didn't allow a single sack against New England or Denver in the postseason, with an especially impressive performance against the Broncos' duo of impressive pass-rushers, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.

Again, there's no way we could say the line couldn't use improvement, but maybe last year's issues would take a huge step forward with more consistency in lineups, and isn't that the final piece that will unequivocally turn the Colts into contenders. 

How does this move help the Colts beat New England? That's the ultimate question here, right? At the heart of it all, that's what people see as the Colts' real goal. They've blown the Colts out in the playoffs the last two years, and they are the obstacle the Colts must overcome next if they are to take the next step in Indianapolis' progression.

The easy answer to that question is that the Colts only scored seven points in the January loss to New England. As none of the Colts receivers got open throughout the game, the Colts' downfield passing attack ground to a halt. The Colts and Patriots actually ran for the same yards per carry in the game, but Indianapolis passed for an abysmal 3.8 yards per attempt.

Ironically, that passing inefficiency wasn't new to Indianapolis.

The Colts were just 13th in offensive DVOA in 2014, as turnovers and consistency went out the window down the stretch last season. The team's strength on offense is the passing attack, but there was certainly room for improvement.

	DVOA	Passer Rating	EPA	WPA
Statistic	15.3%	96.5	134.0	1.74
Rank	13	7	7	17

And really, if we're talking rookie-year contributions, the Colts may get more from Dorsett as a slot receiver than they would have gotten from a rookie defender. It's very likely that the Colts wouldn't have gotten an immediate starter at No. 29, and they would have been competing for a rotational position. An offensive lineman starting would have depended on injuries, and if the Colts were reaching at that point, who knows how it turns out.

Again, none of this is to say that the Colts don't need defensive or offensive line upgrades. The team desperately needs pillars to build the defense upon, and the long-term core pieces simply aren't there. The offensive line still needs a long-term tackle plan after Cherilus' contract is up (or his knees give out). But our complaints about this draft generally have nothing to do with the long term, only what the players will bring to the 2015 Colts roster.

That short-term fixation is what gets us in trouble. All of our initial instincts in reacting to a draft is whether or not the Colts filled their list of needs for the current season, needs that could look completely different in 12 months.

We focus on drafting players that will fit what the team needs immediately, even though rookie contributions will likely represent a tiny sliver of what they'll provide over the course of their career.

NFL teams draft players for what they can give you in years two, three and beyond, not for what they do during their rookie season. Drafting one player over another solely because you think the position he plays in his rookie season will be better to beat a team that you may or may not see in the postseason? Ludicrous.

That's where Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano's focus was in this draft. Not just what these rookies can do for the Colts in 2015, but what they can bring years down the road

According to Mike Wells of ESPN.com, the Colts had Dorsett as a top-20 player in this draft, while the oft-considered defensive prospect Brown was a second-round talent. If Dorsett turns out to be a top-20 player in this draft, nobody will care what position the Colts needed back in 2015. Especially if, as we've discussed above, the team's holes are more inconveniences than gaping chasms.

The Colts had Dorsett as one of the few special talents in this draft, and they snapped him up. They could grab more ordinary defensive players later, and they did. Sure, some other defensive prospects in this draft will turn out to be special, but the team believes Dorsett to have a better chance of that than anybody left on the board at No. 29.

For acting on that, I can't blame them.

The thing about the "best player available" approach isn't that every player is a hit, but that over time the rate of successful players will be higher than if you start bypassing stronger players for needs. Of course, that's providing the scouting department does its job well, but the philosophy is strong.

As long as you're drafting good players, the rest will take care of itself.