Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Horses to Avoid and Safest Jockeys to Bet This Year

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	30-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	30-1
6	Mubtaahij	Cristophe Soumillion	Mike de Kock	20-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	30-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3-1
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	30-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	20-1
12	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	30-1
13	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50-1
14	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	15-1
15	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
16	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
17	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	5-2
18	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	15-1
19	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	30-1
20	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	30-1

On Saturday, 20 horses will descend upon the Churchill Downs dirt track to compete in "the most exciting two minutes in sports." The 2015 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be one of the most exciting installments of the race in recent memory. Right now, who will actually win the race is anybody's guess.

As is true of every Derby, there are horses that, on paper, should be avoided at all costs. Conversely, there are always jockeys representing relatively safe bets.

In this piece, we're going to look at both of those storylines and tell you whom you should and shouldn't be backing in the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.

Before we get into all that, though, take a look at the chart below, which details post positions, connections and odds for each horse in the field.

Post Positions and Odds

Horses to Avoid

There's nothing wrong with backing a long shot; in Far Right, Frosted and Mubtaahij, I've already recommended it a few times in articles over the last week.

However, there's no reason for you to even consider including Frammento when you deliberate your bets this year.

Frammento, sired by Midshipman and trained by Nick Zito, finished fourth in his last race, the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.

Finishing behind Ocho Ocho Ocho, Danzig Moon and Carpe Diem is nothing to scoff at, as all three will participate in the Derby tomorrow. However, he was going full out to gain that fourth position, and all three horses who finished in front of him were still pulling away.

Frammento actually ran rather poorly for Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, and given Stevens' ability as a rider, I'd be much more inclined to put the brunt of the blame on the horse.

Make no mistake about it, Frammento is a quality animal, but he won't show in this company. He's outclassed and outgunned, and it's going to show.

He hasn't shown he has the speed or ability to hold up over the 1 ¼-mile dirt track at Churchill, and Frammento may very well finish dead last. Avoid at all costs.

So maybe don't totally avoid this one, but don't bet him to win, either, Like Frammento, Carpe Diem isn't winning the Derby. I actually liked Carpe Diem a little bit coming into Wednesday, April 29, but the post-position draw that night made me essentially toss any and all thoughts of him winning right out of the window.

Carpe Diem was given the second position in the starting gate. For all you history buffs, the two hole hasn't produced a winner since Affirmed in 1978, and the position hasn't seen a horse finish in the money since Revolutionary came third back in 2013, per KentuckyDerby.com.

I'm not the only one with concerns about his starting position, though, and Joe Nevills of The Daily Racing Form shared similar sentiments shortly after the draw:

It's not just the post position that scares me, though. It's a combination of that and the lack of speed shown by this Giant's Causeway colt—he has never posted a triple-digit Beyer number, per The Daily Racing Form.

Carpe Diem has broken second, fourth, 10th and fourth in his last four starts. In a 10-horse field, that's something you can get away with. In a 20-horse field, getting buried due to a slow break is not an option.

Look no further than the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile for a great example of how this will work against Carpe Diem.

As you can see in the video above, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt broke second to last and rode two wide the entire way through the backstretch. With all the congestion along the inside paths, Carpe Diem was forced to kick out about six wide and was full out down the stretch to beat Upstart by a nose.

Now, it's certainly worth mentioning that this was three races back, and he's since posted back-to-back victories in the Blue Grass Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby. It's also worth noting that Carpe Diem ran out of the ninth post position in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but it's the lack of gate speed that he displayed in that race—and many others—that's worrying.

That Breeders' Cup Juvenile replay looks a lot like what we'll see in the Derby in relation to how quickly the horses break out of the gate. If that's the case, you don't want to be anywhere near the rail when the bell rings.

If Carpe Diem wins, it will be at my expense.

Safest Jockeys to Bet

If you're avoiding Carpe Diem and Frammento, then you'll be avoiding John Velazquez and Corey Nakatani. Both are great jockeys, but they're not the "safest" jockeys this year, given their mounts and post positions.

Want a safe jockey to bet? Look to the eighth position and the monster Big Brown colt, Dortmund.

Ridden by Martin Garcia, Dortmund is arguably the best horse in the field. The Bob Baffert-trained colt is undefeated over six career starts. Garcia has ridden him in each of those six starts, with the most recent being the Santa Anita Derby, shown in the video below.

Garcia has built up a great rapport with Dortmund, and his Beyer numbers, per The Daily Racing Form, suggest that he has been improving steadily ever since his fist career start.

Truthfully, Garcia doesn't have the best track record in the Derby, having logged 15th-, sixth- and ninth-place finishes in 2010, 2012 and 2014 respectively. That said, he also hasn't had the best mounts.

That's not the case this year, though, as Dortmund is clearly one of the two or three best horses in the field.

Garcia is extremely familiar with this horse, and he has a bit of an advantage, given his inside knowledge of what makes morning-line favorite American Pharoah tick as well.

In a story published by The Courier-Journal, writer Jennie Rees noted that it was Garcia who worked American Pharoah through his ungodly 58.40 second five-furlong workout last week. Garcia is the workout rider for both AP and Dortmund, and while he wouldn't comment on which horse he'd rather ride, it speaks volumes to his ability that he's Baffert's first call for the best mounts.

Plus, honestly, how can you bet against anybody riding a thoroughbred that's this big?

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

One last jockey you should consider backing here in the 141st running of the Derby is Gary Stevens.

Stevens will ride Firing Line on Saturday, and they'll run out of the coveted No. 10 position. The 10th starting position has produced the highest winning percentage (11.5 percent) of any position in the Derby, and Firing Line will look to be the first horse to win out of the 10 hole since Giacomo in 2005, per KentuckyDerby.com.

Firing Line is a great horse, having finished second to Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes before winning the Grade 3 Sunland Derby back in late March.

Stevens picked up his first mount for Firing Line back in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and also rode him in his recent victory at Sunland Park (shown in the video below). It's no coincidence that those two races happen to be Firing Line's best in terms of Beyer Numbers (97 in the Sunland, and 104 in the RB Lewis), per The Daily Racing Form.

Stevens has experience aboard Firing Line. So what, right? Well, fortunately, he also has a whole boatload of experience riding in the Derby as well.

At 52 years old, Stevens is the oldest jockey in the field.

That age has its drawbacks, though, as jockeys tend to be reluctant to ride at the front of the pack as they get up in age—getting tossed and trampled isn't fun. That said, among riders in this year's Derby, Stevens is tied with Mike Smith for the most mounts (20), per KentuckyDerby.com.

With those 20 mounts, Stevens has managed three first-place finishes (Winning Colors, 1988; Thunder Gulch, 1995; Silver Charm, 1998) and has finished in the money six times. Those six in-the-money (ITM) finishes make for a 30-percent ITM rate, and his three wins are tied for the third-most of all time and the most among active riders (tied with Calvin Borel and Kent Desormeaux), per KentuckyDerby.com.

If you're looking for a safe jockey to back this year, Stevens is a hard choice to pass up.

Follow me on Twitter!