Golden State Warriors Will Never Have Better Shot at NBA Title
There's no better time than now for the Golden State Warriors.
No better time to vie for a title that's one step closer after a convincing opening-round sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans, no better time to take down a vulnerable Memphis Grizzlies team and no better time to realize their vast potential after a league-best 67-win season.
Head coach Steve Kerr's team has done everything right this season, building 11 games of distance between itself and the No. 2-seeded Houston Rockets. That kind of separation is impressive in its own right, but all the more so in the hyper-competitive Western Conference.
The Warriors have also been winning the right way, premising their exceptional two-way approach on motion, ball movement and all kinds of help and switching on the defensive end.
This is a championship-caliber team with or without an actual championship. And it should remain an elite unit for years to come thanks to a young, superstar backcourt that keeps getting better.
But being an elite team and coming away with a title are two different things. The latter is never guaranteed, and Golden State may well have its best opportunity this season.
Things will grow more difficult for this team in the years to come. While that doesn't preclude any number of future championships, it does mean the organization should treasure the chance that presents itself in the near-term. It could be one of a kind.
The Competition
The Pelicans battled valiantly, but quickly proved little more than a confidence-builder for these Warriors.
"I'm proud of the way we played, the way we competed," star point guard Stephen Curry told reporters after Game 4. "Four in a row is a good feeling. We're going to rest up."
After losing to the Los Angeles Clippers in a seven-game classic last season, the Warriors making short work of New Orleans was crucial. Anything less than a sweep might have prompted some measure of creeping doubt, questions about their ability to replicate their regular-season success on the postseason stage.
Instead, the Warriors are rolling, and that's likely to remain the case against a solid but unspectacular Memphis Grizzlies team. Memphis took care of the Portland Trail Blazers in five games, but did so against an outfit that was missing shooting guard Wes Matthews and—for two games—his replacement, Arron Afflalo.
Another sweep may not be in the offing for Golden State, but it did win two of three meetings between the two sides in the regular season. And the Grizzlies may be without starting point guard Mike Conley for at least some of the series. He's recovering from facial surgery after suffering an injury in Game 3 against Portland.
Assuming the conference semifinals go Golden State's way, the most difficult test will await in the conference finals. That's when the Warriors will face either the Clippers, Rockets or San Antonio Spurs—all clubs with a legitimate shot at winning the title.
None of those teams will emerge from its second-round matchup unscathed, however. In fact, one would be surprised if a battle between the Rockets and Spurs or Clippers didn't go six or seven games.
By comparison, there's nothing stopping Golden State from taking the Grizzlies in just four or five.
More rest for the Warriors. More reason for other would-be contenders to worry.
So what does all this matter? Couldn't the Warriors inherit similarly manageable paths in the years to come? What's to stop this team from owning the No. 1 seed so long as Curry and fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson are around?
In short, the rest of the West is still very good—and seemingly improving by the year. The Rockets and Clippers both boast fairly young cores, and it seems premature to count out the Spurs even upon nearing the end of Tim Duncan's career. The Pelicans will be even better next time as Anthony Davis continues to find his MVP form.
And let's not forget the Oklahoma City Thunder, either. They're a perennial contender when healthy and could cause Golden State all sorts of problems in coming years.
Just not this one.
The Roster
This year has belonged to what may be the most talented roster in basketball. Keeping it that way won't be easy, though.
Fresh off nearly claiming a Defensive Player of the Year Award, versatile forward Draymond Green will become a very expensive restricted free agent this summer.
That's not the best news for a team that's already scheduled to be at least $10 million over a projected $67.1 million salary cap and hovering right at the luxury threshold. With Green likely commanding a deal worth north of $10 million annually (if not the outright maximum), Golden State would plunge itself deep into costly luxury territory.
That might be acceptable in theory, but probably not in a world where two reserves—Andre Iguodala and David Lee—would be making over $27 million combined.
| 2015-16 | 2016-17 | |
| Klay Thompson | $15,501,000 | $16,663,575 |
| David Lee | $15,493,680 | Unrestricted free agent |
| Andrew Bogut | $12,000,000 | $11,027,027 |
| Andre Iguodala | $11,710,456 | $11,131,368 |
| Stephen Curry | $11,370,786 | $12,112,359 |
| Shaun Livingston | $5,543,725 | Non-guaranteed $5,782,450 |
| Marreese Speights | Team option for $3,815,000 | Unrestricted free agent |
| Harrison Barnes | $3,873,398 | Qualifying offer $5,194,227 (RFA) |
| Brandon Rush | Player option for $1,270,964 | Unrestricted free agent |
| Festus Ezeli | $2,008,748 | Qualifying offer $3,013,123 (RFA) |
| Draymond Green | Qualifying offer $2,725,003 (RFA) | TBD |
| Leandro Barbosa | Unrestricted free agent | TBD |
| Justin Holiday | Qualifying offer $1,147,276 (RFA) | TBD |
| Ognjen Kuzmic | Qualifying offer $1,147,276 (RFA) | TBD |
| James McAdoo | Non-guaranteed $845,059 | Qualifying offer $1,180,431 (RFA) |
Marreese Speights' emergence ostensibly makes Lee expendable, and Speights is only due $3.8 million next season at the team's option. Finding a taker for Lee's contract might not be easy, but he's still a strong player who'd feature prominently in a number of frontlines around the league.
At $11.7 million, Iguodala's deal makes him a slightly more affordable luxury. Golden State would miss his defense, playmaking and energy off the bench, even with Shaun Livingston acquired last summer to do similar things at half the price.
Golden State's depth is a big part of its charm, and this is no time for the organization to grow overly austere. Joe Lacob's ownership group has proven itself willing to invest. This is just about doing so wisely, which may presuppose Lee's exit.
Though not painlessly, the Warriors could weather the slightly leaner rotation. The real danger is that an injury to Bogut (or Green or Speights) would leave the team dangerously thin up front. If nothing else, Lee has been an exceptional insurance policy this season.
To whatever extent Golden State preserves its roster integrity, health is a big part of the equation. Center Andrew Bogut has played in 67 games in each of the last two seasons—a vast improvement over the 32 appearances he made in his first campaign with the Warriors in 2012-13.
The 30-year-old's injury history doesn't guarantee that he'll break down in either of his next two seasons under contract, but it's certainly a risk for which the Warriors must account. This team isn't the same without its defensive anchor on the interior.
Curry has also been at top health after a flurry of ankle injuries earlier in his career. He played in 80 games this season, demonstrating heretofore unknown durability. Currently at full strength, the Warriors find themselves in prime position to make the deep playoff run everyone's expected them to make.
That kind of timing involves a little luck, even for younger rosters. Just ask the Thunder.
The Intangibles
There's something about this Warriors team, a life to it, an excitement. They look like they're having a good time playing the game, and—when you think about it—that's sadly rare in this league.
It helps that Curry is having an MVP-worthy season. Those are rare, too, even for great players.
Lacob offered his vote of confidence to USA Today's Sam Amick in April:
"I'm biased, for sure, but (the MVP race) is not even remotely (close). I mean anyone who says that doesn't follow the NBA. I can't believe someone could put up those kinds of numbers in such an efficient way.
Listen, I think it's OK for me to campaign (for Curry). It would be great if he wins (MVP) for our organization. It's a statement. It's a testament to what this organization is about and what he's about. So yes, I do want him to win it. But more than anything, I just think he flat out deserves it. As good as (the Houston Rockets') James Harden has been—and I think in eight out of 10 years he'd deserve it because he has been great—but Steph is the man. He's amazing.
"
Curry's leadership has been almost as indispensable as his NBA-record 286 made three-pointers. So has his defense.
Amick cites that defensive tone in his defense of Curry's MVP credentials:
"There are many layers to this debate, but the most compelling part of Curry's case wasn't something that showed up in a box score or even on the Oracle Arena floor. It was a choice he made during lunch with his new coach last summer, when Steve Kerr came to town to sit down with his new star and they discussed the harsh reality of championship-caliber basketball: the alpha male has to be a two-way player.
All those years of Curry being a liability who had to be hidden on defense were coming to an end, with Kerr explaining that it was vital to set the right tone, the right demeanor for this group by having him guard the opposing team's point guard every time out.
"
It's hard to argue with the results, and not just because of Curry's career-high 2.04 steals per game. He's always been a reasonably good pickpocket, but it's the other numbers that really stand out.
The Warriors only gave up 97.2 points per 100 possessions when Curry was on the floor this season according to NBA.com. That number grew to 100.4 points per 100 possessions when Curry wasn't on the floor, all the more impressive given the bench's defensive pedigree and length.
Golden State's defensive rating of 98.2 points per 100 possessions was the league's best, a testament to the philosophy Kerr communicated to Curry before the season began. Curry has become an elite two-way point guard, and he unsurprisingly leads the league's best two-way team.
"Nothing left to say, except he's the MVP," Kerr told reporters after Curry bested his own three-point record against Portland. "He never talks about it, but you better believe he wants it."
It's difficult to quantify Curry's value, but it's even harder to measure this team's sheer effort. It's what characterizes the best defenses, and it can't be taken for granted. No coaching staff or general manager can will it into existence. The players have to want it.
And this season, they have.
There's no rule that says these kinds of dream campaigns only happen every so often. But in reality, they do. The energy comes and goes. Injuries strike. Players decline, get traded, lose their mojo or otherwise fall from the sort of heights at which Golden State now finds itself.
Things happen. The Warriors know this as well as anyone and will be abundantly prepared for whatever happens next. In the meantime, however, they have a championship to win and an awfully good chance to do it.
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