NFL Draft 2015: Biggest Storylines and Potential Surprises

Round 1 of the 2015 NFL draft will take center stage Thursday night, but the drama surrounding rookie selection and last-minute trades will extend far into the league’s future. 

In just two days, franchises will be on the clock to decide some of the biggest questions that have long captured the attentions of the footballing nation.

Why are the biggest names in the draft shunning their own coming-of-age party? Could six wide receivers really go in the first round? And sure, there’s plenty of talk about Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota—but what is all this buzz about Garrett Grayson?

Let’s get the full story behind those questions and more as we look ahead to the 2015 NFL draft.

Are Winston and Mariota Really Shunning Their Draft Night?

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

According to CBS New York, yes they are.

The projected Nos. 1 and 2 picks have opted to stay home with their families instead of joining their fellow first-rounders in Chicago on Thursday night.

While commissioner Roger Goodell will undoubtedly be a little disappointed the star quarterbacks are skipping his party, it’s easy to forgive their motives.

“My grandmother, she can't travel. She has Type-2 diabetes and has multiple surgeries and I want her to be there," Winston said, per Will Brinson of CBS Sports. "I want the people who I've been with Day 1 to be around me and enjoy this moment. It's a celebration to me and it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity."

Mariota cited similar reasons when he said, according to ESPN’s Adam Shefter (h/t CBS New York), it was important “personally and culturally, to be in Hawaii to celebrate the next step in his life.”

The first overall selection hasn’t been absent from the festivities since Dan Wilkinson in 1994. However, regardless of what Hall of Fame wide receiver Michael Irvin has to say about it, it looks like that 20-year streak will be broken this year.

Winston and Mariota’s tango at the top is still the biggest storyline at this year’s draft, but they’ll be thousands of miles apart when their respective fates are finally decided.

OK, Enough about Winston and Mariota: Let’s Talk about Grayson

Seeing Garrett Grayson go in the first round would probably be the surprise of the draft, but it’s not inconceivable (and the official NFL Twitter is running with the speculation):

A veteran NFL personnel executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity for “competitive reasons,” recently told USA Today’s Tom Pelissero: “I wouldn't be surprised if Grayson was better than all of them. I just think he's got the intangibles. He's got a good presence about himself in the pocket. He's got the physical traits. His arm's strong enough, and I think he's got the right temperament.”

Former NFL coach and current Monday Night Football commentator Jon Gruden also had positive things to say about Grayson, whom he ranks as the third best quarterback in this year’s class.

“I like Grayson a lot, I really do. I would say he’s my third,” said Gruden, per Mike Klis of The Denver Post. He had previously explained the reasoning behind his opinion, saying: 

"

He’s proven he’s a good pocket passer. He’s played for two coaches that have been in the NFL: Steve Fairchild and Jim McElwain. I got a feeling he’s going to be a good pro quarterback providing he gets on a team where there’s some continuity. I mean some of these young quarterbacks have no chance the way they change coaches and coordinators every single year. It’s astonishing to me. But I do like Grayson.

"

But who would draft him in the first round?

NFL.com’s Charles Davis believes the New Orleans Saints could draft a quarterback with their No. 31 pick. “Saints head coach Sean Payton knocked down rumors that the Saints were considering trading up for Marcus Mariota,” said Davis, “but he hasn't said they won't draft a quarterback.”

He reasons that if Payton is thinking of a future beyond Drew Brees, now might be the time to pick up a QB and begin the long-term grooming process. Stranger things have happened.

The Year of the Wide Receiver?

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Many experts have five wide receivers going in their mock draft’s first 20 (here’s just a sample from NFL.com), but could there be a sixth in the first round?

After Alabama’s Amari Cooper, Louisville’s DeVante Parker, West Virginia’s Kevin White, Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong and University of Central Florida’s Breshad Perriman, Charles Davis argues (and fellow analyst Bucky Brooks agrees) that Ohio State’s Devin Smith will be drafted by the Ravens at No. 26.

Considering five wide receivers were picked in last year’s first round—touted as one of the best classes ever for that position—having six go this year would not seem out of the question. 

Wide receivers drafted early in the class of 2014 made big statements during the 2014 NFL season, so general managers may be optimistic about bolstering their offenses this year.

Sammy Watkins (drafted fourth) picked up 982 yards in the 2014 regular season (No. 24 in the league, per ESPN). Mike Evans (drafted seventh) had 1,051 yards (No. 19 in the league). Odell Beckham Jr. (drafted 12th) had 1,305 yards (No. 10 in the league). And Kelvin Benjamin (drafted 28th) had 1,008 yards (tied for No. 21).

If six wide receivers go in the first round this year, it would be the most since the 2009 draft. However, it would be far from a surprise.

How Far Will Leonard Williams (Undeservedly) Fall in the Draft?

Michael David Smith of NBCSports.com described University of Southern California defensive lineman Leonard Williams as “the consensus best player in the 2015 NFL draft,” adding, “[NFL media draft expert] Mike Mayock thinks so, [ESPN football analyst] Mel Kiper thinks so and most of the lesser-known draft ‘experts’ who pop up around this time of year think so.”

Though it is clear Williams should occupy the most rarified air of the 2015 draft, the circumstances dictating his draft stock are beyond his control. Could he go No. 3 behind the quarterbacks, as Kiper would have us believe from the tweet below, or could he fall even farther?

Jameis Winston appears set to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as their No. 1 pick. The Tennessee Titans will then likely draft Marcus Mariota at No. 2 (or trade for someone like Philip Rivers, as we discussed at length here).

It looks like the Jacksonville Jaguars will take Dante Fowler Jr. as the No. 3 pick, as noted by ESPN’s Mike DiRocco and the player himself. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper seems like the current consensus pick for the Oakland Raiders at No. 4.

So where does that leave Williams?

In his mock draft, NFL Network’s Charley Casserly believes the defensive end could fall as far as No. 5 and end up with the Washington Redskins. And ESPN’s Adam Schefter added credibility to the possibility with a nod to William’s schedule this week:

It would be shocking to see such a talent go fifth, but Williams is just the most recent example of how teams’ circumstantial needs tend to supersede an individual player’s ability.