NFL Draft 2015: Marcus Mariota Could Determine Philip Rivers' San Diego Future

Five-time Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers has set countless franchise records for the San Diego Chargers over the past decade, but his best contribution to the team this year may be vacating his spot for Oregon’s Marcus Mariota.

With the first round of the NFL draft kicking off on Thursday, talk of a potential Rivers-for-Mariota trade deal is starting to reach fever pitch. As it stands, San Diego could trade its franchise QB to the Tennessee Titans in exchange for the No. 2 overall pick in the draft that would be used to pick up the 21-year-old rookie.

The logistics seem pretty clean-cut, but would the Chargers really part with their proven Pro Bowler for the undoubtedly gifted but inexperienced Mariota? And even then, if all parties involved in the trade are satisfied, should they go ahead with the deal?

Chargers coach Tom Telesco doesn’t seem to think so (at least not publicly):

But Sports Illustrated’s Doug Farrar disagreed.

“The smart play for the Chargers would be to get as much as possible for Rivers, who is a perennial MVP candidate, and move along with their next potential franchise quarterback,” said Farrar on SI.com.

He argued the move would be good timing, considering Rivers has only a year remaining on his current contract and has “reportedly refused to discuss an extension in any serious sense.”

Now that could just be the kind of posturing that naturally arises around new contract negotiations, but other evidence suggests it may be much more serious.

U-T San Diego’s Kevin Acee reported in March that Rivers wasn’t exactly enthusiastic about the prospect of relocating to Los Angeles with the team after his current contract was set to run out. And the paper’s official Twitter account conveniently summarized Acee’s position:

“Rivers doesn’t rule out playing in Los Angeles should the Chargers move there,” said Acee, “but there are more appealing cities to a family that has never strayed from its Southern roots.”

For Rivers, family is a big deal. The quarterback himself put the potential move in the context of his family—lending further credibility to the rumors that he does not want to move to L.A.—when he said, per Acee:

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What we’ve established here with my growing family is hard to recreate. It’s hard to up and recreate that. I know that moves are part of life. But that certainly is fair to say that (not being sold on moving to Los Angeles) is part of it. The good thing is I’m not under contract in a year where we’d potentially be in Los Angeles.

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Add to that former teammate LaDainian Tomlinson’s belief that Rivers has “lost confidence in the [Chargers] organization” and also wouldn’t want to follow them to L.A. for that reason, per Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com, and a move to Tennessee starts to look pretty believable.

But wait—if Rivers doesn’t want to move to L.A., why would he want to move to Tennessee?

Well, according to Sky Sports’ Michael Kelleher, “Rivers has strong family ties to the Deep South and was a high school football star in Athens, Alabama, [which is] 97 miles south of Nashville.” Playing for the Titans would put him closer to Athens than any other NFL franchise could.

So, aside from letting Rivers pull a real-life Welcome Back, Kotter, what’s in it for the Titans and Chargers? All things considered, both sides could come out of the deal with major gains and only marginal risk.

Tennessee could reunite Rivers with his former offensive coordinator from 2013, Ken Whisenhunt, who helped the QB become NFL Comeback Player of the Year before becoming head coach of the Titans.

Considering the Titans lack a franchise quarterback, getting a still-in-his-prime MVP contender who threw for 31 touchdowns and close to 4,300 yards last season would be a great investment, even though he’s 33.

The No. 2 draft pick is also a strong enough bartering tool to ensure Tennessee would get a contract extension from Rivers before sealing the trade, locking him in for more than his remaining year. (And, as Kelleher notes, Rivers and Whisenhunt share the same agent, so those negotiations would likely be easy to facilitate.)

As far as San Diego’s half of the deal is concerned, Heisman winner Mariota (whose accomplishments were celebrated by his alma mater’s Twitter account) certainly has the potential to become the Chargers’ next franchise quarterback.

At Oregon, per NFL.com, Mariota was “asked to handle more each season by Ducks coaches and delivered consistent production,” proving he is adaptable enough to quickly step up to the next level when called.

However, given that his next step up will be into an NFL offense (the biggest step of all), Farrar reminds us, “Mariota should be seen as a player with a need for developmental time at the next level. He'll need to learn to call plays and embrace a far more complicated playbook than he had at Oregon.”

That’s a true assessment, but it is also arguably no more of a hindrance for the former Duck than it was for so many of the other first round quarterbacks drafted in recent years. When the Chargers consider they’ll also have Mike McCoy overseeing his development—as Farrar went on to explain—it won’t seem too devastating a downside relative to the potential benefits: 

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One coach that is very good at transitioning potentially overwhelmed young quarterbacks to the NFL is Chargers coach Mike McCoy, who came into national prominence when he created a first-read open offense for Tim Tebow in 2011, back when he was Denver's offensive coordinator. McCoy will make himself entirely familiar with what Mariota can and can't do at this point, and he'll adjust accordingly.

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As things stand now, there’s reason for both the Chargers and Titans to feel optimistic about this potential deal. The best offer for the Titans might not be clear until they’re on the clock on Thursday, but if they can sit down with San Diego in the next two days and hammer out the details of a Rivers-Mariota trade, then both sides would be wise to reach an agreement.