(Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)
They say numbers don't tell the whole story, but whoever said that didn't talk to a Sabermetrics expert.
Scott Kazmir, the former first round pick out of high school by the New York Mets, now former ace of the Tampa Bay Rays, is headed to the Angels, who are in the middle of the playoff race with the Texas Rangers.
On paper, it looks like a good move for the Angels. He hasn't been all too good this year, but overall in his short career Kazmir has been a terrific pitcher. Unfortunately for the Angels, the numbers may show us in advance that Kazmir is in for a rough future.
In return for their ace, the Rays receive 21-year-old pitcher Alexander Torres, who is 13-4 with a 2.75 ERA in the minor leagues this year, as well as third baseman Matthew Sweeney, who hit .299 with nine home runs and 44 RBI in the advanced A-level this year.
The Rays will be sending along no additional money to pay for Kazmir's contract, which will free up at least $20M, which the Rays would like to spend on additional players to bolster the team.
They say stats don't tell the whole story, but it looks like addition by subtraction to me.
Kazmir, just 25, has an impressive career 3.92 ERA to go with 55 wins in 144 starts since breaking in with the Rays in 2005. Preceding that move, Kaz was flipped to the Devil Rays at the 2004 non-waiver trade deadline for Bartolome Fortunato and Victor Zambrano.
From 2005 on to 2008, the Mets would come to greatly regreat that deal. Kazmir had developed into a highly talented young ace down in Florida, while Zambrano ended a terrible stint with the Mets by the end of the 2006 season.
Fortunato would compile an ERA of 7.06 with the Mets in 21 innings of work between 2004 and 2006. Fortunato missed the whole '05 season with a herniated disk. Fortunato hasn't pitched in the Bigs since 2006, and the 35-year-old is now bouncing around independent league teams.
They say statistics don't tell the whole story, but I think it's safe to say "they" didn't ask any Mets fans.
For a four year window, this trade looked like a hell of a heist for the Rays, even bordering along the lines of grand larceny.
The stats don't tell the whole story, they say, and that is true to an extent. However, the recent trends in the ups and downs of Kazmir's numbers and ratios are not painting a pretty picture, but rather more like a toddler's attempt at painting Edvard Munch's The Scream.
Kazmir, who was at one point among one of the most dominant arms in the game, has recently started sliding down a slippery slope of regression since his remarkable 2007 season.
Going 13-9 for a Devil Rays team that won only 66 games and finished last in the American League in attendance, Kazmir also compiled a 3.48 ERA while notching 239 strikeouts.
Heading into the 2008 season, the Rays announced an agreement between the two parties for a four-year contract with a 2012 option. $28.5 million is guaranteed to Kazmir in the contract, but the maximum value of the deal is around $39 million.
Kazmir didn't start his 2008 season until May due to a strained elbow, but still managed a very similar stat line to his impressive 2007 year. Kazmir finished with a 12-8 mark with a 3.49 ERA in 27 starts.
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