Why There Is Risk to Drafting USC's Leonard Williams in the Top 5

Everyone knows about the injury risks and character risks that often bump prospects down draft boards, but the most overlooked type of risk is developmental risk. Since these are draft prospects, there is always risk that they simply don’t develop into good NFL players.

USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams is a very good prospect, but he actually comes with more of this type of risk than your average consensus top-five draft pick. There is a very real possibility Williams doesn’t become a good pass-rusher in the NFL, which is the whole reason to take a defensive tackle so early in the draft in the first place.

There are dozens of examples of consensus top-five draft picks struggling in the pros at the very thing teams drafted them to do. Offensive tackles are supposed to be among the safest top-five draft picks, but the 2013 No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher and No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel have struggled. Last year’s No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson still has a lot to learn in pass protection, which was one of the known developmental risks about him coming out of Auburn.

Unlike offensive tackles, interior defensive players aren’t typically top-five picks. There have only been five in the last decade, which is on par with the number of top-five wide receivers.

Ndamukong Suh, Marcell Dareus and Gerald McCoy have all become top pass-rushers. Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are two examples of interior defensive linemen drafted in the top five that didn’t become top pass-rushers. Both are solid NFL players, but without the pass rush, they simply weren’t worth such high picks.

That doesn’t mean Williams won’t be a very good player, there’s just previously unacknowledged risk with taking him in the top five. If he does develop into a good pass-rusher at the NFL level, he’ll likely justify his draft status and then some.

Player	HT	WT	ARM	HAND	10 Yard Split	Broad	Vert	3 Cone	Short Shuttle
Williams	6'5"	302	34 5/8"	10 5/8"	1.72	8'10"	29 1/2"	7.59	4.53
Suh	6'3"	307	33 1/2"	10 1/4"	1.74	8'9"	35 1/2"	7.21	4.44
Dareus	6'3"	319	33 3/8"	10 1/8"	1.73	8'10"	27"	7.83	4.62
McCoy	6'4"	295	33 3/4"	10 1/4"	1.74	9'6"	30 1/2"	7.32	4.48
Average	6'3"	307	33 1/2"	10 1/4"	1.74	9'	31"	7.45	4.51
Jackson	6'4"	296	32 7/8"	9 3/4"	1.78	8'6"	28 1/2"	7.64	4.8
Dorsey	6'1"	297	33 1/4"	9 7/8"	1.74	8'4"	25 1/2"	7.52	4.8
Average	6'3"	297	33"	9 13/16"	1.76	8'5"	27"	7.58	4.8

Athletically, there isn’t a lot to tip us off to the risk of drafting Williams. He looks like an NFL defensive tackle and compares to the aforementioned five interior defensive tackles that went in the top five. Williams actually had superior length when compared to all of them, which actually may mean he has significant upside if he does develop.

One of the excuses given for Williams’ lack of pass-rush prowess is that USC’s 3-4 scheme asked him to play two gaps. While true, it should be at least a little alarming USC would use a two-gap 3-4 knowing they had a generational talent like Williams at defensive end. Unless Williams is a much better run defender than he is a pass-rusher at this point, in which case it makes perfect sense.

There is some anecdotal evidence that Williams is better when asked to one gap as will be the case in the NFL, but there is just as much evidence he might be below-average in this area.

According to Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus, Williams had just eight total pressures on 94 pass-rush snaps on 3rd-and-long plays last season, which is below-average for FBS interior defensive players. On plays Williams should be dominating, he was below-average.

Williams just didn’t demonstrate the ability to disrupt and penetrate the line of scrimmage enough at USC to project him as a good pass-rusher right away. That doesn’t mean he can’t develop into a good pass-rusher, but there is always the risk he can’t.

Greg Cosell of NFL Films seems to agree there are significant questions with Williams others are ignoring.

“There’s an important question with Williams: What do teams think he can become with development and coaching?” Cosell said in a column for Yahoo! Sports. “That’s a key question, because I see some things he needs to work on as well.”

Most notably, Cosell is concerned about Williams as a pass-rusher, both when he lines up as a 3-4 defensive end or a 4-3 defensive tackle.

“At this point I think he can align at defensive end in a 3-4 front and strong-side defensive end in 4-3 front but he’s not an edge pass rusher,” Cosell said. “He is not a natural pass rusher from inside defensive tackle position, he would need to be taught how to do that.”

Even those concerned about Williams would agree there’s a lot to like about him as a prospect. He just needs development to reach his full potential, which is the risk the team that drafts him will be taking, unwittingly or not.

Perhaps no play better sums up Williams than this sack against UCLA. Williams pushes the offensive lineman all the way back into the quarterback to make the sack, nearly stripping the ball in the process.

A powerful display of a great bull rush, but one likely won’t be as effective at the NFL level. Not only because the level of competition will be better, but because it took Williams a long time to get to the quarterback from the edge using this technique.

Williams used his long arms and strength to dominate college competition, but if he keeps playing high and doesn’t learn how to be a more active interior rusher, he may never reach his full potential. That’s more than your average risk for a top-five pick, even if the reward is significant.