NFL: Fantasy Football Rookie Report

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With some fantasy drafts recently completed by myself, I have decided to look into the fantasy depth and expectations of the rookie class of 2009. I've taken the approach of looking at the key offensive positions, where the players may be drafted, their possible playing time and touches, and their possible fantasy output.

The motive for this is mainly selfish, as I tend to only play in keeper leagues (I prefer to let the newbies play draft and trades). Of course, you won't agree with some (or maybe any) of my views—but there is a reason I annually finish in the top third of all my keeper leagues.

Quarterbacks

1. Mark Sanchez (NYJ)—Middle rounds of fantasy drafts. The newly named starter of the Jets probably has the best potential to contribute at the position. He has a ground game in NY and some reliable targets at TE and WR in place to go along with a great offensive line.

I drafted him as a backup, or trade bait, in one of my larger leagues and expect numbers similar to Flacco's 2008 campaign—around 2,800 yards and 16 TDs with about 12-14 ints.

2. Matthew Stafford (DET)—Undrafted or late rounds in deep leagues. Scouts have raved about his NFL-style approach since high school, but it is unclear if he will start from day one. (I don't see what harm he could possibly do to the team.) I expect he starts from day one, or at least by week six.

I'm optimistic on his numbers mainly because he has a good young running back with him, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew (continue reading), and they will be playing catch-up in most outings. I'm counting on about the same numbers as Sanchez, even if he doesn't start until a couple weeks in.

3. Pat White (MIA)—Middle rounds in most leagues, upper third of deep leagues. Maybe the hardest cat to figure out of the rookie class. Amid clouds of questions as to how he will be used, I would expect simply effectively. Yardage wise, I would venture a guess of about 1,000 combined rushing a passing with eight TDs, give or take. I will be honest here; he is a completed guess.

4. Josh Freeman (TB)—Largely undrafted. Doesn't look like he will start on opening day, but then again news broke today that Tampa is shopping a QB—which could open the door for the 6'6", 250 lb. monster. Nothing more than a third option in leagues with 12 plus teams.

Running Backs

1. Knowshon Moreno (DEN)—Middle rounds. A team full of holes on defense doesn't take a RB No. 12 overall if they don't plan to use him. Although I am not overly impressed with him or the touches he may receive, I would think that 1,000 rushing yards mixed in with more than a handful of catches (see, Orton to Forte). He's your perfect No. 1 bench back that you don't have to overspend on.

2. Chris Wells (ARZ)—Middle rounds in all leagues. I do not love him as an NFL player. Average size, speed, hands and toughness usually equal an average NFL career. However, with that said, he is my favorite rookie RB for 2009. So why did I rank him second? Injuries.

If healthy, he'll get his touches on his way to 850 rushing yards, 150 receiving, and eight total TDs. Not a bad hall for a rookie. I grabbed him very leate as my No. 3 back in two big leagues—and I am excited by the sheer number of touches he should receive.

3. Donald Brown (IND)—Middle rounds. With the injury history of Joseph Addai coupled with the departure of Harrison as a target, the Colts may run or dump to backs in the red zone more in 2009. That plays well for a rookie in a potent offense. He's probably a lock for 800 combined yards and four to six TDs. He is only another Addai injury away from 1,200 total yards and a great season.

4. LeSean McCoy (PHI)—Middle and late rounds in all drafts. I saw him play live a few times, and he is the fastest player I have ever seen live. He is special on returns as well and has above average hands.

It has been made clear publicly that he is a clone to Westbrook in terms of how he can be utilized. That should be enticing to anyone who is aware of the 30 year old Westbrook's injury history. I'm thinking somewhere around 500 rushing yards and 200 receiving with five TDs. Not bad as a handcuff if you own Westbrook or you stumble on him in the bottom third of your draft.

5. Shonn Green (NYJ)

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