Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Minnesota Vikings' Top 3 Picks

With the 2015 NFL draft not too far away, the Minnesota Vikings big board is mostly set, save for the odd incident that may drop a prospect off the radar. With that in mind, Minnesota may be in a position to take advantage of the draft going sideways—or it could be left to dry if things go wrong.

For the most part, the new regime with general manager Rick Spielman has been lucky on draft day. Sharrif Floyd falling to pick No. 23 in the 2013 NFL draft was a coup, and the Vikings grabbed rising quarterback Teddy Bridgewater at the end of the first round in last year's draft.

On the other hand, the Christian Ponder pick in the 2011 draft could have been the result of the NFL valuing quarterbacks too highly—with three of them going before the Vikings picked the Florida State quarterback.

Every draft is different, and managing the board along with other teams' expectations is a big part of playing it well. That said, enough is outside the control of any front office that the Vikings could face the following best- or worst-case scenarios.

Pick 11: Best-Case Scenario—Trade Down

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Rick Spielman has indicated multiple times that he prefers to work with 10 draft picks whenever possible. The best way to acquire more picks, at least without an Adrian Peterson trade, would be to trade down in the first round, as pick No. 11 holds the most value.

That could be ideal for Minnesota for a few reasons, not the least of which is that it seems as if there's some agreement among NFL draft evaluators that there are only nine elite prospects and a bevy of also-rans.

Naturally, one of those could drop, but the Vikings may not need or value that player as much as a willing trade partner would. If quarterback Marcus Mariota falls, for example, Minnesota could get serious value from a team that needs a quarterback later in the draft (like the Cleveland Browns one pick below or a team willing to sit him, like the Denver Broncos).

Either way, this could position the Vikings to select both a high-value linebacker (like Stephone Anthony, Eric Kendricks or Shaq Thompson) and a great cornerback (like Marcus Peters, Byron Jones or Jalen Collins) with the extra ammunition they acquire.

Beyond that, it may secure some resources later in the draft to grab a developmental prospect, a special teams maven or a backup quarterback.

Pick 11: Worst-Case Scenario—Vikings Panic at Defensive Back

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The Vikings have talent at defensive back, with Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith as rising stars in the secondary. Unfortunately, paired with those players are a number of names who don't draw excitement.

Robert Blanton or Andrew Sendejo could start at safety if cornerback converts Shaun Prater and Antone Exum don't prove they can. Perennial underachiever Taylor Mays could push as well, but that doesn't necessarily bode well for the safety group.

At cornerback, Captain Munnerlyn had the worst season of his career, which included the worst game of his life. Josh Robinson had a similar year in 2013, though his 2014 was much improved.

With that in mind, it may make sense for the Vikings to forgo the possibility of trading down in favor of grabbing a defensive back early. Given the system fits of some of the top defensive backs and their weaknesses, the Vikings would do better waiting, especially because the talent in this draft is very good.

Trae Waynes has been at the top of the cornerback pile for major draft media for some time, and though he is talented, his tape doesn't seem to reveal a player with the systemic requirements to fit in a Mike Zimmer scheme.

A fantastic talent, Waynes would be great in a Cover 3 system like Seattle or Jacksonville's, but his talents don't fit a cornerback who needs to follow receivers across different routes like they would in other systems. Michigan State's former defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, described the defense as a zone defense with man principles, which lets cornerbacks pass off receivers who break inside to linebackers and safeties covering the interior.

Even in blitzes, Michigan State preferred zone pressure, and their zone design had corners rarely take in-breaking routes, which is not ideal for Zimmer defenses. Not only that, Waynes hasn't showed much ability to take on those responsibilities when he had them.

The top safety on most boards, Landon Collins, is an excellent box safety in traditional schemes that have strong safeties take on run support and tight ends in coverage, but his versatility is limited, and he can't play deep. Harrison Smith's expanding responsibilities require a dynamic safety to partner with him, even if he doesn't have to be elite.

Either player would do well for a lot of teams and could mean value, but fitting a square peg into a round hole doesn't work for most defenses and wouldn't for the Vikings. Panicking to select a player who doesn't fit isn't the right answer to having other players who don't fit.

Pick 45: Best-Case Scenario—A Run on Defensive Linemen

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The Vikings will have to address the defensive end position sooner or later, but the clock isn't ticking on this position, and they have Scott Crichton to develop before warning bells sound. With needs at other positions, seeing defensive linemen go in the 26-44 range could be a big help.

Players like Arik Armstead could make good on their first-round buzz by seeing a selection late on the first day, but defensive linemen have been seen in first-round mocks everywhere, including surprises like Mario Edwards.

The Baltimore Ravens have to deal with trading away Haloti Ngata and the loss of Pernell McPhee, while the Dallas Cowboys don't have sure answers at any of their four line positions. Indianapolis could use more beef up front, and so could Tennessee, if it passes on Leonard Williams early. Tampa Bay, Oakland and Jacksonville could be thinking along those lines as well.

There are enough defensive linemen who could break into those spots. Eddie Goldman, Malcom Brown and Grady Jarrett have all received that kind of hype, and we could see Preston Smith, Owamagbe Odighizuwa and Eli Harold fulfill some of their promise as well.

As such, the Vikings could see premier defensive backs or linebackers get to them, or even an offensive lineman, if they break tradition and select one early.

Pick 45: Worst-Case Scenario—A Run on Linebackers

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The Vikings seem poised to select a linebacker in the draft. Aside from having two of their three linebacker positions up in the air, they've spent more of their draft resources evaluating linebackers than any other position, especially after counting prospects who are too small to be Mike Zimmer defensive ends, like Randy Gregory and Dante Fowler Jr., as linebackers.

Draft insider Tony Pauline "fully expects" the Vikings to grab a linebacker in earlier rounds based on their predraft behavior.

As such, seeing a run late in the first round and early in the second round could hurt the Vikings. Any number of teams could be interested in a linebacker in that range, including the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears—with reasonable arguments for others as well.

Should the Vikings break tradition by not trading back into the first round, they could see Anthony, Kendricks, Thompson and others (perhaps Benardrick McKinney or Denzel Perryman) go before they pick in the second round.

In that case, they could take a chance on a falling prospect (like the poorly testing Paul Dawson) who may work out or pick a different position and defer their linebacker selection to the later rounds—Kwon Alexander, Jake Ryan and Taiwan Jones are all options—but they won't have nearly the chance of success as an earlier pick.

Pick 76: Best-Case Scenario—Depth at the Receiver Position Plays out

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Minnesota is popularly perceived to have a need at receiver, and that may be the case—it didn't get much production out of the unit last year. On the other hand, almost none of the wide receivers on the roster can really have a final grade on them.

From underutilized Jarius Wright to underdeveloped Cordarrelle Patterson, "potential" is perhaps the best word to describe the roster. Adding speedy Mike Wallace this offseason and similarly fast Charles Johnson partway through the season last year provides the position with some life that shouldn't be written off.

But "incomplete" is a grade that demands more than just patience, and the Vikings could look to add a receiving option in the draft. With the depth available at the receiver position in this year's draft, they could see a great talent fall.

Matt Miller's big board has nine receivers in the top 50, and CBS' has eight. Three of the receivers outside of CBS' top eight are players who at one time or another received buzz that placed them in the second round, like Devin Funchess, Sammie Coates and Devin Smith.

It may be the case that 10 or so receivers have second-round grades or higher, and there are 11 players on CBS' board who have grades in the top 75. That one of them should fall to 76 seems a lock.

A deeper receiver draft in 2014 saw only eight picked in the top 50, with talented players like Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry and Allen Robinson picked outside of those spots.

On average, nine receivers have gone in the first 75 picks in the last 10 years, an average that drops to eight over the past five years despite richer receiver classes. If the pattern holds, then those who wait will see better dividends, because this year's draft could have better receiver talent than most. A second-round pick in most years could easily be a third-round pick in this year's draft.

Minnesota could see a talent like Devin Smith fall because of the stacked position in the draft, which would be a huge boon. Even a player like Tre McBride, who is projected to go in the third round by CBS, still would be a fantastic pickup.

Pick 76: Worst-Case Scenario—Only Projects Fall at Receiver

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The Vikings may be in the market for a receiver, but they don't have a lot of roster spots for those who can't contribute immediately. Charles Johnson has more to prove despite a great late-season resurgence, and Jarius Wright, though talented in his limited showings, needs to add diversity to his game. 

Given that Mike Wallace is one-dimensional in much the same way as Wright, three receivers with starting talent need to develop into more complete players, and that's before getting to Cordarrelle Patterson.

Adding to that plate is a recipe for blown expectations, especially because there are only so many "depth" receivers one can have.

While it's true that Norv Turner has entered a season with seven receivers before, the idea of very few of them being ready to run a full NFL route tree is unpalatable.

Receivers who might fall include projects like Breshad Perriman, Sammie Coates and Dorial Green-Beckham, all of whom have supreme athletic ability but trouble running routes. There are fits for them in the offense in the abstract, but all of their roles are not just already filled but filled with multiple receivers.

Being forced to pick between these players isn't necessarily bad; talent is always good to deal with. It just would be one of the few worst-case scenarios a team could have to deal with early in the third round. Beyond that, the Vikings could swing another trade for someone to a team that is capable of having a roster spot for that kind of player.