Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Detroit Lions' Top 3 Picks

Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew doesn't need a good draft this year; he must absolutely kill it if he's going to get the merciless fans off his back.

It's of no concern to them that he's guided the franchise from 0-16 to the playoffs. Twice. It doesn't matter because that playoff win the team has been chasing since 1991 has proved more elusive than an NFL gig for Tim Tebow.

So I've broken down six scenarios that should help clear up what is expected at the end of the month. Three of them are slam dunks that should give Mayhew a moment's rest. The other three will cause whoever bought www.FireMayhew.com to build the website and start circulating petitions.

Best-Case 1

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

First Round: G La'el Collins

In this scenario, the perfect marriage of talent and need fall to Detroit at No. 23. Collins is a nasty blocker who loves to mix it up. He'd bring the attitude and fierceness that the line will be missing without Dominic Raiola, although hopefully with more class than Detroit's former center.

Detroit wouldn't bring in Collins to play tackle, as he has the last two seasons, but guard. The move back to left guard, where he started 13 games as a sophomore, will limit the damage from his bad lunging habit and will better position him to tee off on defenders.

"

The sense I get with La'el Collins is he's got every physical tool and attitude needed for success, but he'd still be a chore to coach up.

— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) April 8, 2015"

Second Round: RB Tevin Coleman

Detroit's need for a running back can be overblown at times, but general manager Martin Mayhew shouldn't hesitate if he can nab Coleman with the 54th pick. Coleman has an NFL-level burst that he can use to explode through holes and cutback lanes opened up by Collins and Company. And he's also a willing pass-blocker.

Third Round: DT Grady Jarrett

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com said it best when he wrote that "he's a perfect shade-nose fit for teams looking for a disruptor in a one-gap, penetrating front." The 6'1", 304-pounder would immediately contribute behind Tyrunn Walker, giving offensive line coaches nightmares trying to account for one of them on every play.

Worst-Case 1

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

First Round: DT Carl Davis

Everyone following the Lions hashtag on Twitter seemed to gravitate toward Davis at one time or another. The attraction is understandable considering he stands 6'5", weighs 320 pounds and is capable of causing problems for any offense.

His problem, however, is that the tape doesn't reflect that consistently. He's here one play and gone the next, leaving people to wonder if he has the motivation to realize his potential. Detroit recently spent a top pick on that type of player (Nick Fairley), and he now suits up for the St. Louis Rams.

Second Round: RB David Johnson

Johnson could be a great addition—the electrifying back Detroit needs to round out its rotation. However, his running style isn't aggressive enough to carry an offense, meaning he couldn't handle the lead back duties if Joique Bell were to go down. There isn't enough upside to justify this high of a pick.

Third Round: S James Sample

I've personally gone back and forth on Detroit grabbing somebody like Sample to eventually take over for James Ihedigbo. However, the Lions would be better off seeing what another year with defensive coordinator Teryl Austin does for Isa Abdul-Quddus. If Abdul-Quddus continues to improve, he might be the better option for the long term.

Best-Case 2

First Round: DT Malcom Brown

I'm an unabashed Brown enthusiast. He was the heavy favorite at the beginning of the draft process for many pundits, leading to fatigue among the faithful.

Brown is massive (6'2", 319 lbs) and fits the Detroit mold since he is a capable penetrator. The Lions' rotation should help solve his inconsistency issues so long as it isn't a matter of effort. Finally, the jump in his play that coincided with Charlie Strong's arrival could mean Brown just needed better coaching. That's why those early-adopting pundits are steadily coming back to the light:

"

Looks like McShay back to mocking Texas DT Malcom Brown to the Lions.

— Justin Rogers (@Justin_Rogers) March 30, 2015"

Second Round: CB Eric Rowe

Eric Rowe's bandwagon is getting incredibly crowded, so it'd be best if you jumped on quickly. He's never going to be the complete cornerback who can shut down a receiver playing on an island. But he's a great fit for Detroit because he can use his physicality at the line of scrimmage while Glover Quin helps him out over the top.

Third Round: OG Ali Marpet

Any best-case scenario for Detroit must include a guard. Marpet is our man here. He's an athletic freak (4.98 40-yard dash) who can block on the move, meaning his transition from Division III will be easier due to Detroit's zone-blocking schemes.

Worst-Case 2

John Bazemore/Associated Press

First Round: RB Todd Gurley

Yes, Gurley will probably be a very good NFL running back. Teams may even regret not taking Gurley when they had the chance.

But none of that means he's worth a first-round pick. He's coming off an ACL injury, and the need for a running back isn't so prevalent as to warrant that type of risk. Brent Sobleski of Bleacher Report outlines a few other health concerns here:

"

It wasn't just a knee injury to hold Todd Gurley back. Dinged throughout UGA career with bruised ribs, sprained ankle and strained quad.

— Brent Sobleski (@brentsobleski) April 8, 2015"

Second Round: G Laken Tomlinson

If Cam Erving and La'el Collins go early, it's possible that there could be a small run on other interior offensive line prospects. That unlikely occurrence could give rise to this pick, which sees Detroit taking a player who either doesn't fit on the left side or would require Larry Warford to move from a position he excels at.

Third Round: S Kurtis Drummond

The same argument made against James Sample applies here but carries even more weight. Or rather, Drummond doesn't carry enough (208 lbs) to be an in-the-box safety, meaning he's probably at best a backup to Glover Quin. Eventually Detroit will need to worry about replacing the 29-year-old Pro Bowler, but it isn't in the third round of this draft.

Best-Case 3

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

First Round: CB Trae Waynes

The last best-case scenario is also the least likely, but crazier things have happened. Never forget that the best quarterback in the league today was allowed to tumble to the 24th pick because he was a "system quarterback." And, as Benjamin Allbright does here, pundits are poking holes in the presumed first-round pick's game:

"

Trae Waynes is gonna be a penalty machine in the NFL.

— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) April 11, 2015"

While Waynes must learn to cover downfield without grabbing the receiver, it's just the type of molehill that creates a mountain of malarkey (excuse my French) against a prospect. There are holes, but there is also enough talent, skill and intelligence here to more than overcome the gaps.

And for the record, this pick was almost Cameron Erving. I'm still not sold on him as a first-round pick since he doesn't bring the fight to the defense but reacts, giving the defender the first punch.

Second Round: DT Michael Bennett

The Lions love defensive tackles who explode at the snap and create havoc in the backfield. That describes Michael Bennett to the letter. As he gets stronger, he should become better against the run, but he would immediately restore Detroit's defensive line as one of the best in the league.

Third Round: OG A.J. Cann

Again, it isn't likely that Cann is there in the third round, but the same could be said for Larry Warford once upon a time. Cann would immediately take over at left guard and hold it down for the next decade with solid but not spectacular play. If LaAdrian Waddle bounces back to his rookie form, the trenches on both sides of the ball could be the strengths of the team.

Worst-Case 3

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

First Round: WR Breshad Perriman

First, a quick disclaimer: I didn't hate the Eric Ebron pick. Detroit needed to diversity its weaponry by bringing in a third player defenses would have to prioritize in coverage. It hasn't happened yet, but it's very early in his career to dismiss his potential impact.

None of the above would justify taking Perriman in the first round though. Perriman has the looks of an incredible talent with top-end speed (4.24 40 at his pro day) and solid size (6'2", 212 lbs). However, there comes a point when luxury becomes excessive to the point of gaudy. The line here is clearly demarcated. 

Round 2: OT Cedric Ogbuehi

Ogbuehi might have been a first-round pick had he not tore his ACL in Texas A&M's bowl game. Since he won't be able to take part in any predraft workouts, it's likely that Ogbuehi will last until the back end of the second round, possibly even the third. It also doesn't help that he gave up seven sacks last season. Detroit should let him be someone else's concern.

Round 3: FB Jalston Fowler

We're trying to keep some semblance of reality here, so I'm basing this off one mock's inclusion of Fowler in the third round. Fowler might be a Pro Bowler someday, but it will be at fullback. No fullback is worth a third-round pick, regardless of his talent level.

All combine statistics are courtesy of NFL.com. 

Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.