Minnesota Vikings Draft Countdown: Making the Case for Stephone Anthony

As the NFL draft nears, the Minnesota Vikings may be more defined by their second pick than their first one—and picking Stephone Anthony could be the best solution in the long run if the Vikings want to maintain relevance and boost a defense in desperate need of new blood.

The Need

The Vikings obviously could use help at linebacker more than anywhere else. With Chad Greenway near retirement and playing below the level of play the Vikings need at the position and with Jasper Brinkley gone, Minnesota has two linebacker spots to fill.

Gerald Hodges and Audie Cole played well in relief of Anthony Barr and Greenway, and it’s true that Cole can also play the middle linebacker position. But even though they looked good in limited snaps, there is a good chance that at least one of them doesn’t have the ability to be a long-term solution at the position.

Think of it this way, even if either of them had a 70 percent chance of being starter-quality players—a generous assumption—there’s only a 49 percent chance that both can fulfill the roles they need to.

At the same time, the Vikings have similar kinds of uncertainty throughout the roster, where promising young players who can develop may overshadow the “need” calculation for otherwise underperforming positions. For example:

• Guard: with David Yankey, Mike Harris and Austin Wentworth competing for the job, alongside veteran Joe Berger
• Wide receiver: where Charles Johnson and Cordarrelle Patterson still have the ability to develop into quality starters
• Safety: because Antone Exum remains a tantalizing option, and the Vikings are high on Andrew Sendejo, who started at the end of the season to replace Robert Blanton—an assignment-sound player by himself
• Defensive end: third-round pick Scott Crichton didn’t see much of the field, but is only entering his second year
• Cornerback: After all, Captain Munnerlyn’s great years in Carolina are no fluke and Josh Robinson was far better than advertised
• Running back: where Jerick McKinnon looked great during the season, and Adrian Peterson may yet still play for the Vikings

Certainly some of those positions qualify as needs still, but only in one other spot (cornerback) is it clear that two spots are under question instead of only one. Though there’s a higher likelihood that positions of greater uncertainty (like guard) are clearer needs, the fact that it’s likely that there are two positions of uncertainty at linebacker demands attention.

Given that the Vikings are also unlikely to draft a guard early (general manager Rick Spielman never has drafted one before the fifth round) and there’s weakness in the safety class this year, it makes sense to focus on a position directly responsible for the Vikings' poor run defense this year.

The Value

Linebackers are historically easy to find. Of the 20 off-ball linebackers picked in the first round, 13 of them seem like hits: Patrick Willis, Anthony Barr, Von Miller, Luke Kuechly, Khalil Mack, Jerod Mayo, Lawrence Timmons, Dont'a Hightower, C.J. Mosley, Jon Beason, Ryan Shazier, A.J. Hawk and Greenway.

Sean Weatherspoon seems like a hit but has not played at the level of the other 13. He may be worth a first but isn’t a stellar example.

Alec Ogletree hasn’t had enough of his career play out to really determine if he’s a hit, but he didn’t have a great initial showing like Shazier, Mack and Barr.

The rest (Keith Rivers, Rolando McClain, Aaron Curry, Ernie Sims and Bobby Carpenter) are busts.

In the second round, the pattern holds somewhat true. Twelve more linebackers of the 31 seem like clear hits: Bobby Wagner, David Harris, Lavonte David, James Laurinaitis, Daryl Washington, Jamie Collins, Curtis Lofton, Sean Lee, Mychal Kendricks, DeMeco Ryans, D’Qwell Jackson and Justin Durant.

A few are either too early to tell (Manti Te’o, Kyle Van Noy, Kiko Alonso, Kevin Minter and Jon Bostic) or did well in specific roles or for some teams but not others (Akeem Ayers and Brandon Spikes).

Along with those seven who are not definitive hits are some players with up-and-down careers, like Bruce Carter and Zach Brown, or have starter for quite some time but at a questionable playing level, like Pat Angerer and Rey Maualuga.

Thomas Howard’s career is also difficult to judge.

With 12 hits and 12 players who are neither hits nor misses, it should be encouraging that there only seem to be seven busts: Sabby Piscitelli, Paul Posluszny, Rocky McIntosh, Koa Misi, Clint Sintim, Jordon Dizon and Arthur Brown (whose career is early but has seen himself crowded out by new signees and draft picks to take his place multiple times).

The “bust rate” increases, as you would expect, in the third and fourth round, but there’s still about 17 players of the 66 off-ball linebackers you wouldn’t just trust as a starter but would often prefer. The worry is that about 34 of those players are generally downgrades as starters.

Relative to other positions, this is still a very good rate, but if the Vikings want to find a linebacker, the best bet is likely the second round. The bust rate in the first round is lower than at other positions, but that’s true in the second round as well. And the Vikings may be able to best take advantage of the market by seeking the latest value possible.

At linebacker, that looks like the second round.

Other positions can drop off faster and may need to be picked in the first (perhaps like cornerback), while others have value that lasts a bit longer (like running back) and may be better targets in the third or fourth round.

Anthony is considered a second-round pick by CBS, and he goes at No. 51 to Houston in Matt Miller’s most recent mock draft, so he seems to be well within that range.

Measurables and Analytics

I’ve been working on, for some time, athletic formulas for players at every position. Generally speaking, it does an alright job, as combine numbers go, of predicting linebacker success before and after adjusting for round. On a 10-point scale with 5.0 as average, one can reasonably determine the athletic capability of a player as it relates to linebacker.

In this case, the average hit scored a 7.4 (with the most glaring exception, Mosley, missed out on the combine because of injury and may have had a subpar pro day because of it), while misses averaged 5.6. Looking at All-Pro and Pro Bowl off-ball linebackers reveals that athletic linebackers tend to do better.

Player	Combine Score	Solo Tackle MS	TFL MS
Patrick Willis	10.0	17.0	17.4
Bobby Wagner	9.3	12.6	15.1
Jerod Mayo	8.3	8.8	12.8
Luke Kuechly	8.5	18.8	16.7
Derrick Johnson	8.9	11.5	15.2
Lavonte David	7.8	22.7	21.1
Navorro Bowman	8.2	11.9	18.0

Player	Combine Score	Solo Tackle MS	TFL MS
Patrick Willis	10.0	17.0	17.4
Bobby Wagner	9.3	12.6	15.1
Jerod Mayo	8.3	8.8	12.8
Luke Kuechly	8.5	18.8	16.7
Derrick Johnson	8.9	11.5	15.2
Lavonte David	7.8	22.7	21.1
NaVorro Bowman	8.2	11.9	18.0
London Fletcher	9.8	38.8	12.5
D'Qwell Jackson	5.2	15.1	13.8
Paul Posluszny	7.6	13.1	12.8
Lawrence Timmons	7.7	11.1	17.1
Jonathan Vilma	8.1	8.7	4.6
Daryl Washington	5.8	22.7	21.1

In the tables above, “MS” refers to market share, or the percentage of solo college tackles and tackles-for-loss that a linebacker achieved during years he was a starter. Those who went to the Pro Bowl or were recognized for All-Pro awards tended to do better, though, it’s not as strong a relationship as pro day and combine scores (and neither is as strong a relationship as draft position).

The average college linebacker picked in the first three rounds who played an off-ball role has a solo-tackle market share of 11.25 percent and a tackle-for-loss market share of 12.5 percent. Those who received postseason honors generally did much, much better than that when in college.

Anthony hits on the athletic test with a score of 8.6, the highest in the class, but misses on the market share metrics. The good thing, however, is that Anthony’s solo-tackle market share of 9.0 and tackle-for-loss share of 9.4 do not hit any red flags.

No player with a solo-tackle market share below 7.0 was a hit in the first three rounds in the data described above, in the round value section, and very few were hits (Hightower in the first, DeAndre Levy and Demario Davis in the third) with a solo tackle market share below 8.5.

No players with a tackle-for-loss share below 7.0 were hits, and only two were hits below 8.5 (Jon Beason and Christian Kirksey).

Linebackers who missed on either were more likely to bust (Sims, Keith Rivers, Tavares Gooden, Steward Bradley and Buster Davis) or simply not likely to boom (Carter, Kevin Minter, Thomas Howard, Maualuga, James Anderson, Akeem Dent, Zaviar Gooden and Angerer).

Anthony does not hit a red flag in this area, as a number of linebackers did well with below-average market shares without dipping too low. (The booms between 11.25 and 8.5 market share in either solo tackles or tackles-for-loss include Mayo, Timmons, Laurinaitis, Kendricks, Sean Lee, DeMeco Ryans, Washington, Preston Brown, Nate Irving and Kirksey.)

Beyond that, it should be notable that Anthony is the only player in the draft whose tackle share is consumed by another player more highly rated than him in Vic Beasley, whose numbers are off the charts. The same was true of another boom with a low tackle share, Hightower—splitting up tackles with the entire Alabama defense.

The Fit and Skill Set

Darren Page outlined the nature of the Vikings defense excellently a few months ago in a Bleacher Report article of his own. And the keys for a Vikings linebacker include not just the traditional ones of gap discipline and instinctive play, but the ability to play faster than the rest of the offense as well as inside pass-rushing capability.

The double A-gap blitz is a critical part of Zimmer's scheme, and it just so happens that Anthony excels at that. He flashes excellent hands and good bend when rushing the passer through the A-Gap and gets home more often than not.

GIFs courtesy of Draft Breakdown

As a run defender, Anthony has quite a bit of upside. He has experience reading the center when playing as inside linebacker and reading the guard when Clemson is in its 4-2-5 nickel package. In addition, Anthony has played stacked over the 3-technique, over the nose tackle, the A-gap and "the bubble" B-gap.

GIF courtesy of Draft Breakdown

Here, he follows the pulling guard to the play and also slips underneath the guard in order to make the play.

His strength is excellent, but he needs to leverage it more. As an example, the following play is both a highlight and showcases an area of concern:

GIF Courtesy of Draft Breakdown

Generally speaking, overall, the Clemson linebacker needs to take on blocks at awkward angles better; this is something Eric Kendricks is good at despite his reputation for taking on blocks poorly. Just like a wide receiver will use his elbow to create space between himself and the cornerback, so too must a linebacker create space between himself and the blocker.

Allowing a blocker to get inside his frame is the end of the game. On the clip above, it's an issue, though, he has phenomenal recovery due to strength and balance—he should have been clocked.

This sort of clip generally provides us clues as to what he can do better, but it's more positive than negative, because it's an indication of the positives of Anthony's play and how he overcomes deficiencies.

For all of his speed, both tested and on the field, Anthony needs to display more confidence in his athletic ability and be more aggressive about shooting gaps in order to take on the ball-carrier, sometimes overestimating the speed of a running back relative to what he can do.

GIFs courtesy of Draft Breakdown

But when it does click, it's fantastic.

His speed is an enormous asset, and it allows him to be a run defense threat against both sidelines from the middle of the field. That sort of range is huge, and it can mean a lot to any defense, especially the Vikings. He has much better agility than he's given credit for, and it provides him with the change-of-direction skills he needs in order to close down on runners everywhere on the field.

Anthony is a difficult player to deal with once he uses his hips properly. There are many times where he doesn't drive through a ball-carrier or explode out of his stance in zone coverage when breaking on the ball because he doesn't keep himself coiled by dropping his hips. But when he does, he has fantastic power when tackling or taking on blockers.

When he snaps his hips (usually on his blitzes), he can do a good job against offensive linemen as a rusher, but he needs to be more consistent about it.

For the most part, his ability to take on blockers is subpar, but that has nothing to do with physical ability. He needs to play with better leverage in these instances, though, he does a good job acting as a difficult target.

Anthony should be more willing to take those blocks head on and close running lanes, and he has the natural ability to do so. In some cases, he prefers to go around the block instead of through, which spots the running back a good five to six extra yards on some plays and three or so yards on other plays.

GIF courtesy of Draft Breakdown

Mike Zimmer loves to take on athletic projects who need to fix technique but have the general ability to play well and instinctively. Though there are times when Anthony "guesses," his read ability is underrated, and he moves quickly to the ball.

His stance at the snap can be revealing; he'll leave one foot back on plays he thinks are passes in order to get a head start on shuffling to his zone marker, but that isn't necessarily an indication that he is doomed to have a bad backpedal. He simply needs to learn how to move while sinking his hips and he can overcome this problem.

These are the kinds of technique issues that Zimmer can fix, while a lot of the uncoachable talents (instinct, athleticism and length) are difficult to find with other linebackers.

One good thing about a player who is supposed to be raw is that he doesn't peak in the backfield. He almost always reads the offensive line and mirrors them, consistently moving in order to create difficult targets for second-level blocks.

Generally speaking, in order to get sucked up by play action, the offensive line has to be good and execute deceptive play. This still happens far more often than it should, but he has good recovery for the most part in these instances. (And it helps that his assignment is often the running back when in man coverage.)

GIF courtesy of Draft Breakdown

Anthony has been knocked for his gap discipline, but that is overblown for the most part. While an issue for Anthony, he generally is better than worse creating outside of the constraints of the play. Creative linebackers are far more useful than uncreative, but disciplined, ones.

More often than not, when Anthony abandons his gap, he does it for a reason. He can adapt to circumstances of the play and "create" outside play design. In the clip below, he wisely abandons "assigned" gap in order to attack the running back.

GIF Courtesy of Draft Breakdown

Here, he is assigned the weak-side A-gap. As the center works up to the second level, he keeps his feet moving both to move to the play and also to create a moving target for the center, making him difficult to block. Then he attacks the B-gap that the defensive end is washed out of.

While those lapses in discipline can be bad and should be corrected, having a linebacker with the ability to create is important. It would be better to see him play with this sort of aggressiveness in other instances when the play breaks down, but it is at least good evidence that he's willing to do it.

In coverage, his issues with play action and how he sinks his hips have been covered, but he also has good skills in coverage. He does a fine job in man coverage against most running backs and occasionally tight ends, though, faster running backs can give him fits. In zone coverage, he anticipates the quarterback well and closes in on the ball quickly.

He has some ball skills it seems and tracks the ball well through the air, where his length and height are huge assets.

The biggest issue with his athleticism is that it lags a bit at the end of games. It may not be a conditioning problem, though. Anthony plays with much more urgency at the beginning of games and needs to find ways to reestablish that late in the contest.

Pairing him with Barr can be deadly. With both of them mugging the A-gap, either can be a significant blitz threat (though Barr didn't rush the passer that much when Zimmer called a double A-gap look, it caused a lot of confusion). Anthony can replace Greenway in these packages, who often had to drop back before the snap in order to meet his landmark in time.

Barr was deadly in these looks because he could move from the line of scrimmage over the center to a screen receiver and shut it down behind the line of scrimmage thanks to his excellent instincts and unnatural speed. The Clemson prospect flashes this ability too.

Given that both also showcase long arms and great height, they'd clog up the middle of the field better than any other linebacker duo in the NFL.

Anthony's abilities perfectly match the requirements of a Zimmer defense. Though his deficiencies are real, they are coachable. And Anthony has shown significant improvement over the course of his career as a linebacker, and his ability to adapt and improve is important and a big part of why he could fit.

He was the defensive signal-caller at Clemson, and though they did have issues with alignment at times, he handled those duties well, better than Hodges did with the Vikings in his moments.

The great thing about Anthony is that he can fill either linebacker position. As a middle linebacker, he could be a great run-stopping thumper who can cause issues in a small underneath zone in the passing game—so long as he trusts his athletic ability.

As a "Will" linebacker, he could spend less time worrying about taking on blockers and more time simply getting to the ball and blowing it up. It also gives him even more opportunities to rush the passer, and he's one of the better off-ball linebackers in the class at that skill. His coverage skills here would be an asset, too.

That sort of versatility is valuable, and his spot in the second round makes him too tempting to pass up.