Matthew Stafford Isn't Ready (and Other Things I've Learned About Detroit)

Dateline: Aug. 22, Cleveland, OH

Matthew Stafford takes the first snap of his first "Begin" of his young career. Lions are already down 7-0 thanks to some great passing from the Browns. Play fake left side, Stafford rolls right. Adam Jennings flashes open on a dig route. Stafford slings the ball, interception Eric Wright.

On the bright side, how many of us Lions fans were glad he didn't roll out the back of the end zone?

What Went Wrong?

The problem? Matt Stafford misread the coverage. Against a man defense, that play is a nine-yard completion. Against a zone? No quarterback playing above the Pop Warner level should be throwing that.

A bigger problem, did Stafford really misread the zone? I don't think so.

There was no disguise, no cloud, no combination to that coverage. Stafford is an NFL quarterback. I know a Division III option-quarterback who could read that defense. How much more the "smartest" rookie quarterback in ages.

(Note: There is no conceivable way to blame Adam Jennings on that play. Calvin Johnson runs that route and it's still an INT.)

The bigger problem? Stafford knew it was a zone and thought he could complete it anyway.

At Georgia, to A.J. Green, against Vanderbilt, that's an easy completion.

The play highlights two problems Matthew Stafford has always struggled with. Neither is something easily coached, both have to improve before he starts a regular season game.

Matthew Stafford trusts his arm too much, plain and simple. He has boatloads of talent and is always ready to carry the team on his back. However, trusting your arm too much means being stupid with the football.

Hypothetically, any throw can be made against any type of coverage.

On the INT, Stafford has the arm strength to place a ball over Jennings' right shoulder where only he can get it. However, there isn't a coach in the nation wanting their QB to attempt that pass.

The better option? Wait: there was a lot of protection. Wide receivers are taught to break off their route against a zone—trying to find some green.

Another good option? Run: four yards and a hook slide is better than throwing into coverage.

(Note: In this coach's opinion, the roll out was far too deep and was a factor in this play. However, I have no idea how deep Linehan wants the roll out for that particular play call. In my estimation, Stafford should have been four yards closer to the line of scrimmage when he throws that ball.)

The other Stafford flaw this play points out was highlighted for most of the game as well. Stafford either has poor accuracy or questionable ball placement.

Again, it is completely inappropriate to blame the caliber of WR in this matter.

Can Calvin Johnson catch a poorly thrown ball? Yes he can. Should he need to? Not if you're paying a first overall QB millions of dollars. If the Lions only wanted a kid with a strong arm and no accuracy, Rex Grossman was available!

The WR argument was posited for much of the drafting season. Excuse me? Massaquoi has already earned himself a starting position with the Browns, A.J. Green will be a first rounder, and Knowshon Moreno is the best pass catching RB prospect in a while.

Later on in the first quarter, 3:40 remaining. Stafford takes the snap, play fake left side, rolls back to center—plenty of time in the pocket. John Standeford is open 20 yards down field. Easy throw. Too high.

On the replay, it's clear Standeford had his man beat.

It's also clear that he was in the air at full extension, caught off guard by the velocity and the height of that throw.

Does CJ catch that? Probably.

That does NOT excuse Stafford.

Calvin Johnson makes any quarterback better. As a first overall pick, Matthew Stafford should be charged with making his wide receivers better.

Missing that pass, to any wide receiver is inexcusable.

9:25 left in the second quarter. Stafford takes the snap, play fake left, roll out deep to the right. Jennings is wide open down the right side line. Stafford misses him by a mile.

Does a faster WR catch that? Maybe.

Does it excuse Stafford? Nope.

(Note: Standeford was also wide open in the middle of the field. Stafford made the right throw but it is pertinent to note both wide outs were open.)

What Went Right?

Nothing.

I'm serious.

You can make all the excuses or comparisons that you want. But you can't rationalize this into a good outing. Culpepper took the same "bush league" receivers and completed 10/16 while still passing for a much higher yards/attempt.

Stafford's five completions netted only 34 yards.

Stanton also had five completions for 66 yards. Worse defense? Yeah, but also worse offensive line and receivers.

What do we judge from this?

Fans think I'm trying to run Stafford out of town with my Negative Nancy criticism. I'm not. I still believe Matthew Stafford was the best QB in the 2009 Draft. I still believe we needed a QB. I still believe it was a good pick (albeit not the best pick).

Matthew Stafford, at this point in his career, is about as physically talented as any QB in the NFL.

However, the knocks on him Saturday are still the same knocks scouts had written down after high school all-star games.

This coaching staff can't penalize Stafford for exhibiting flaws they already knew he had.

He was drafted to be groomed out of those flaws. The question, asked ad infinitum on this site and others, is whether or not being on the field will aid his learning process.

On Saturday it did. On Saturday, Matthew Stafford learned this isn't the SEC. NFL defensive backs are smarter and faster and will break on a poorly thrown ball.

Yet, going back to an earlier point—What if Calvin Johnson is on the field? Matthew Stafford probably completes another two to three passes for some decent yardage. The throws are no better, but a superhuman effort at the other end exonerates the poor throws.

A better final outcome, negatively reinforces bad behavior.

Stafford will not learn on the field. If he starts, he will display the same qualities he always has. Strong physical play marked with lapses in judgement. Until that changes, in practice, there is no chance of learning on the field.

Stafford is the best QB to have in the film room and has the tools to be the best on the field. Until he reconciles those two qualities, he cannot start.

What else did we learn?

• Aveion Cason has dirt on someone in the front office. He touched the ball 11 times on Saturday. It is altogether possible that Cason is being held onto as the veteran back and returner while Morris and Northcutt miss time.
  
• Stanton deserves some sort of shot. Great throws, better decisions and amazing athleticism sum up his performance so far this preseason. I am NOT in the camp that he has already earned some sort of starting nod. I am in the camp that he may have a lot more trade value down the road if the Lions give him a shot. 
• The pass rush is good, not great. Derek Anderson did a good job of stepping up into the pocket on Saturday. How many teams do you think are going to generate real pass rush against Joe Thomas et al? Cleveland was top 10 in pass protection last year and added Floyd Womack and John St. Clair—two above average starters. 
• The Lions are set at Punter for the next 10 years. It seems a minor point, but 49.3 yrds/punt is a dangerous weapon to have. So far, in two games, Nick Harris is averaging 45.9. It would be the best of his career if he can keep that up. He's only 31 and has gotten consistently better as a professional.
  

Other News and Notes

The Lions signed rookie running back/returner Tristan Davis. The Auburn product ran a 4.38 at his pro day. His signing (plus Northcutt returning to practice) could be a sign that Cason is officially that much closer to the bubble.

It was a good vacation back to the Mitten State. Got to sit in the press box of Comerica Park for the first time and the Tigers kicked the crap out of the Royals. Also got to sit with the entire FSN crew. A buncha crazy kids, lemme tell ya. Was there with Dr. Trade, may make a Tigers fan out of him one of these days.

I'm joining fellow Lions' Featured Columnist, Dean Holden on The Knee Jerks with Greg Eno and Al (from The Wayne Fontes Experience) TONIGHT @ 11PM EST You can probably find a better Lions' guy, but four of us together? No way. Check it out. BlogTalkRadio even lets you call in and be part of the action!