How to Fix the Denver Nuggets This Offseason

After going into the 2014-15 season with hopes of playoff contention, the 28-49 Denver Nuggets are headed for a second straight trip to the lottery instead. There are a ton of issues to solve, and the front office will have to settle on a firm direction this summer.

The Nuggets likely chalked up the 2013-14 season to bad luck. Danilo Gallinari (who tore his ACL) didn't play a single game, and the injuries kept piling up across the roster. They finished 11th in the Western Conference, 13 games behind the eighth-seeded Dallas Mavericks.

But most of the core players from the franchise-best 57-win 2012-13 season were still under contract. With that in mind, it's understandable that the front office had a positive outlook and was reluctant to blow the team up.

Instead of going into full rebuild mode, Denver reinforced its backcourt by acquiring Arron Afflalo from the Orlando Magic last June. Even so, things never quite clicked under Brian Shaw, who received a lot of the blame for failing with a roster which was never a good fit for him, and he was fired earlier this season. Now that the Nuggets have put together another abysmal campaign, they seem to be leaning toward cleaning the house.

Denver traded two of its starters this season, moving Afflalo to the Portland Trail Blazers and Timofey Mozgov to the Cleveland Cavaliers. It's stocked up on some future first-round picks along the way, and more big moves could be in store when the NBA draft and free agency roll around.

Even Ty Lawson, the team's best player, was up for grabs at the February deadline, per Zach Lowe of Grantland. The Nuggets reportedly asked for a steep price of multiple first-round picks, so it's understandable that they found no takers for their starting point guard.

Lowe also wrote earlier this year that Jusuf Nurkic is the only untouchable on the Nuggets roster, which would suggest that there could be some fireworks in Denver this summer:

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"Jusuf Nurkic is the only true untouchable on the roster, per several league sources who have dealt with the Nuggets. The sense around the league is that you could land Lawson or Faried with a Godfather offer. They are gettable."

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Rebuilding is tough, but the Nuggets are mediocre and need a plan and a sense of direction. They will look for a new coach after firing Brian Shaw, and they have a couple of ways to go in their rebuilding process.

Competitive Rebuilding

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The Houston Rockets are a Cinderella story for teams that refuse to completely tank. Houston general manager Daryl Morey stacked up on assets and kept his roster competitive until James Harden essentially fell into his lap.

Smart front office moves and allocation of assets allowed the Rockets to get the best of both worlds: contend for a playoff spot and keep the fans entertained while sniffing around the league for a franchise-changing player.

Had Harden not become available, though, the Rockets would likely have continued to be mediocre and not had a chance to add a top talent through the draft.

It's a risky strategy and one the Nuggets have essentially employed. Most probably expected this team to be more competitive, but the best-case scenario going into the year was contention for the eighth seed in the brutal Western Conference.

If Denver decides that tanking for a couple of years is out of the question, there are roads to improvement. The Nuggets could let go of Chandler and Foye and create some cap space this summer. Unfortunately, the most attractive free agents this summer will be restricted. Denver could throw some offer sheets out there, but landing a high-impact guy is essentially a pipe dream.

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However, the Nuggets will have a ton of cap space in 2016-17 (as will the rest of the league, with the impending cap boom). They will only have Lawson and Kenneth Faried (assuming they don't trade them) under fully guaranteed contracts. Even if they re-sign Gallinari, the Nuggets will be able to throw max offers at a bunch of free agents.

For that to be the case, Denver would have to be conservative with its spending this summer while trying to add players who fit into the long-term plan. Guys like Louis Williams and Danny Green could fill the void at the 2-guard spot, although it would probably take a very lucrative deal to lure the latter away from the San Antonio Spurs.

Other intriguing players the Nuggets could look at this summer are Houston's K.J. McDaniels and the Atlanta Hawks' DeMarre Carroll. McDaniels looked like a promising talent while he was on the Philadelphia 76ers, while Carroll brings a lot of intangibles to the table as a wing.

The Nuggets can certainly find some effective role players in free agency, but the only way to build a long-term contender is to have at least one superstar. For small market teams, the best shot at landing one is through the draft.

Complete Teardown

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The Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics are the two primary examples of what a complete teardown looks like. Both teams traded away their aging veterans, are sitting on a pile of future draft picks and have some interesting young players to build around.

The Nuggets are seemingly sending out feelers for most of their own players, and they do have a ton of attractive and tradable assets. Management clearly wants to put a competitive product on the floor, and selling a multiyear rebuilding plan to the fans isn't easy. But it might be the best course of action.

Denver isn't a particularly attractive destination for free agents, which means the team has to trade for a superstar or hit a home run in the draft. More bullets in the chamber means a higher probability of hitting a shot.

The Nuggets have their own pick this summer, which should land sixth of seventh. They also have a heavily protected future first-rounder from the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland's lottery-protected 2016 first-round pick and the true gem of being able to swap first-round picks with the New York Knicks in 2016, per RealGM.

It's hard to see New York, holding the worst record in the league, making a quick turnaround from its current situation, and Denver will be rooting for the Knicks to have another stinker of a season.

The most difficult choice when tearing the team down is to decide who is worth keeping. For example, even though Boston is in rebuild mode, it acquired Isaiah Thomas in a trade-deadline deal. It will probably take a couple of years for the Celtics to be truly relevant, but they still jumped at the opportunity and added a young player who makes the team better.

The Celtics probably see Thomas as both a movable asset and a guy who could potentially play a role when the team gets good in a couple of years. If the Nuggets opt for a full-on rebuild, they would have to go through a similar evaluation of their own players. Current skill, salary and especially age are the key factors.

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It might appear a little silly that sources are pointing to Nurkic as an untouchable in trade talks, but it makes sense. He is huge (6'11"), 20 years old and has a ton of talent. Nurkic already has a soft touch around the rim, can knock down the occasional jumper and is a pretty solid rim protector. Denver gives up a massive 6.6 points per 100 possessions less with the Bosnian on the floor, per NBA.com.

Nurkic is on a dirt-cheap contract for two more years and will hit restricted free agency in 2018-19, per HoopsHype.com. He might not have superstar potential, but Nurkic could develop into a solid starting center over the next couple of years.

Lawson is undersized (5'11") and will always have trouble guarding his position, but he has evolved into a terrific offensive weapon. He is third in the league in assists per game, and only the Los Angeles Clippers' Chris Paul has a better assist-to-turnover ratio. He is one of the best drive-and-kick guys in the league and a terrific pick-and-roll player.

On the flip side, Lawson is 27, has already had several nagging injuries and will be up for an extension when he closes in on 30. Denver wouldn't be competitive in the next couple of years even if it cleaned house and kept him, and Lawson's contract situation could be a head-scratcher down the road when the Nuggets would presumably have a young and solid core in place.

He is the Nuggets' best player but should ideally be the second or even third option on a true championship contender.

Lawson still has a lot of value and is on a relatively cap-friendly contract for his production. Maybe the Nuggets can't get two future first-round picks, but landing a pick and a young prospect for their starting point guard is very possible.

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Faried's place on this team should also come into question. He inked a massive extension in October, but the Nuggets would likely look to move him as well.

Ideally, Denver would have to have a young core of players who would improve together over the next couple of seasons. Faried is just 25, is a terrific energy guy and no one makes rebounding as entertaining to watch as the Manimal. That being said, he has likely hit his ceiling, and his lack of shooting range could be a tricky fit next to Nurkic.

The Nuggets offense has done surprisingly well with Nurkic and Faried on the floor, putting up 104.3 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. Even so, it's hard seeing that frontcourt combination striking fear into opponents a couple of years down the road.

Faried is all over the place defensively and doesn't bring enough offensive versatility to the table. Moving him for picks and trying to draft a younger power forward might be in Denver's best interest.

Denver has player options on both Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler for next season, while Gallinari and J.J. Hickson will be on expiring deals. 

Chandler is a nice player, but is also in his late 20s. He has sought-after two-way versatility, so the Nuggets could bring him back and eventually move his expiring deal to a contender. Foye will likely be gone this summer, as his production has fallen off a cliff and he is shooting just 37.3 percent from the field. Gallinari is the one player the Nuggets should consider keeping, even in the case of a complete rebuild.

His 2014-15 statistics aren't pretty, and he is coming off ACL surgery. Gallo might have looked like a shell of his former self for most of the year, but he put together an encouraging March: 17.8 points and 4.8 rebounds per game on 42.3 percent shooting from the field and 37.1 percent from three, with a 40-point outburst against the Orlando Magic as a cherry on top.

It's just one month, but it's very encouraging. Gallinari is still getting to the line a ton and doesn't rely on athleticism to score. He should age pretty well and could be a valuable player on a great team even in his 30s.

He will make over $11.5 million next season, which is a bit pricey. But he has an offensive skill set that is rare in wings of his size, and re-signing him for somewhere just under $10 million per year before the cap jumps wouldn't be outrageous. That will especially be the case if he can return to full form before his deal expires.

Essentially cleaning house and rebuilding through the draft isn't a surefire way to becoming a contender. Plenty of teams around the league have been missing in the playoff picture even with top-five selections. That being said, it might very well be the best way for the Nuggets to have a chance of constructing a title-contending roster.

The Nuggets are at crossroads right now, and settling on a firm direction is tough. The team has a ton of assets, and the next couple of months will indicate how the front office intends to navigate those resources.

It's not entirely impossible for a superstar to become available in free agency or the trade market. Kevin Love moving to the Cleveland Cavaliers is the most recent example. But tearing everything down would allow Denver to control the process and have a plan in motion, rather than hoping for a break in free agency.

All salary information is courtesy of HoopsHype.com.

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