Analyzing the AL Central's Race to the Bottom

For the purposes of this article, the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals will not be considered playoff contenders. Sorry Tribe and Zack Greinke fans.

The AL Central race shall be a good one. It's between three teams that are average (Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Minnesota Twins) and that don't seem to ever want to win when it matters.

Here are the current standings:

Team	Record	GB
Detroit	65-58	--
Chicago	63-61	2.5
Minnesota	61-63	4.5

The Tigers, the top team in the division, are only seven games above the .500 mark. That shows you how bad the AL Central is.

To put this in perspective, the next closest division leader to the .500 mark is the St. Louis Cardinals at 18 games above.

Here are some things to keep in mind with the race winding down the stretch.

1. Home-field advantage matters amongst these three teams.

As we've just witnessed with the Bostons and New Yorks of the world, home-field advantage really doesn't mean that much outside this division. Amongst these three teams, however, home-field advantage usually dictates the winner.

At the Metrodome, the White Sox and Tigers are a combined 2-10.

At Comerica Park, the White Sox and Twins are a combined 4-7.

At US Cellular Field, the Tigers and Twins are a combined 5-7.

The Twins clearly have the biggest home-field advantage when playing the other AL Central rivals, but it's prevalent amongst all three division "contenders."

Each team hosts the other, which sets up these six crucial series:

Aug. 31-Sept. 2: Chicago @ Minnesota—Expect a Twins sweep (3-0).

Sept. 18-Sept. 20: Detroit @ Minnesota—Expect the Twins to win (2-1).

Sept. 21-Sept. 23: Minnesota @ Chicago—Expect the White Sox to win (2-1).

Sept. 25-Sept. 27: Detroit @ Chicago—Expect the White Sox to win (2-1).

Sept. 28-Oct. 1: Minnesota @ Detroit—Expect the Tigers to win (3-1).

Oct. 2-Oct. 4: Chicago @ Detroit—Expect the Tigers to win (2-1).

2. There are key "non-three" matchups remaining.

The Chicago White Sox have eight games remaining against the Boston Red Sox.

The Detroit Tigers have seven games remaining against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Minnesota Twins have three games remaining against the Texas Rangers.

3. Let's rain on their parade! Who are potential spoilers for the three teams?

A) The Kansas City Royals. Remember, they prevented the Twins from going to the playoffs last year. If these three teams have to go up against Greinke a lot, then things will not always go their way.

B) The Cleveland Indians. Remember, they almost prevented the White Sox from going to the playoffs last year. They finished as the hottest team in baseball last year and could ruin one of the team's chances.

C) The Chicago Cubs. They have one game at Wrigley against the White Sox. That game could determine if any Chicago team will see postseason action in 2009.

D) The Toronto Blue Jays. They have shown the potential to be good and do have Roy Halladay. The Twins and Tigers both have series remaining against the Jays, so they could spell trouble.

4. Why they'll lose.

The White Sox now start an 11-game road trip, including four at Boston, three at New York, three at Minnesota, and one at Wrigley. They could be done and out within two weeks.

The Tigers also have a tough upcoming schedule. Ten of their next 13 games are either against the surging Rays or the Angels.

The Twins will have to play pretty bad baseball to drop out early. Their only non-division games remaining are against the Orioles, A's, and Blue Jays.

5. Why they'll win.

The White Sox have beaten good teams. It's the average-to-bad teams that have gotten to them this year. A tough schedule might be a good thing for them.

The Tigers have the majority of their remaining games at home. They are one of the best home teams in baseball with a 40-20 record.

The Twins have an easy schedule. It's full of division rivals (which aren't hard to beat) and three pretty easy non-division opponents.

THE VERDICT IS IN: The Minnesota Twins will win the AL Central in 2009.

Their schedule is just too damn easy. The White Sox and Tigers are about to get brutalized. It's only a question of whether the Twins can beat the teams that they're supposed to. If they do, it's their division to lose.

Here are my projected standings:

Team	Record	GB
Minnesota	87-75	--
Detroit	86-76	1
Chicago	84-78	3

Projecting how each of the teams' remaining games will go, this is how I think the division will look like coming down the stretch: