USC Football: The Case for and Against the Trojans to Make 2015-16 Playoff

The word vomit is going to taste pretty bad coming up. It usually does.

"Is USC football back?" 

The "B-word" is dreaded, but it was a question that was ready to go at a moment's notice once the Trojans beat Nebraska 45-42 in the Holiday Bowl. It's a question that's already been parsed through, and it will be picked apart and examined even more between now and early September. The offseason is long like that. 

In a way, finishing 9-4 was the perfect record to start the USC hype train. It shows there's room to grow in a program with a high ceiling. Yet, it's not bad enough that loaded words like "rebuild" have to be used; that implies the Trojans would have a ways to go. 

In reality, USC doesn't. Say what you will about former head coach Lane Kiffin, but he recruited extraordinarily well given that he was strapped with limited scholarships in the post-NCAA sanctions era. Second-year coach Steve Sarkisian has picked up where Kiffin left off, finishing with the second-best class nationally this year, according to 247Sports. 

Armed with a talented, but now deeper, roster, is USC truly playoff bound in 2015-16? Bovada's latest odds to win the national championship, courtesy of Odds Shark, are listed below. USC is currently at 12-1 odds. 

Team	Odds
Ohio State	4/1
Alabama	7/1
TCU	9/1
USC	12/1
Auburn	16/1
Baylor	20/1
Oklahoma	20/1
Oregon	20/1

Here's why the Trojans are playoff bound...and why they aren't. 

Why USC Will Be Playoff Bound

Like everything else, it starts at quarterback. With Oregon's Marcus Mariota gone, Cody Kessler assumes the role of the top signal-caller in the Pac-12. 

Kessler's 2014 numbers were excellent and efficient, which is not an easy combination. He deserves a ton of credit for that. But because Mariota's stats were also excellent and efficient—not to mention better—Kessler was overshadowed. He couldn't crack a first-team All-Pac-12 list in an alternate universe. 

The spotlight has shifted from Eugene, Oregon, to Los Angeles, though. Not only are the expectations high for Kessler individually speaking, but his role as a team leader will unfold in front of a lot of eyeballs. USC has to fill in the gap in the running game left by the early departure of the NFL-bound Buck Allen. Nelson Agholor, Kessler's favorite receiving target by a country mile, also took off for the pros. 

That was an outstanding supporting cast around Kessler. Certainly, second-leading receiver JuJu Smith can emerge as a true No. 1 option for the Trojans, but this is not a year in which Kessler can settle into a game-manager role. 

Name	Position	2014 Stats
Cody Kessler	QB	3,826 passing yards, 39 TDs, 5 INTs
JuJu Smith	WR	54 catches, 724 yards, 5 TDs
Bryce Dixon	TE	14 catches, 198 yards, 4 TDs

(*Note: Bryce Dixon was held out of spring practice for a “student-conduct issue,” but his official status with the team has not been officially determined.) 

"As the quarterback, people are going to blame and praise you first, and coach [Clay] Helton and Sark are always telling me I don’t have to put it all on my shoulders,” Kessler recently told Lindsay Schnell of Sports Illustrated. “But I want that. I’m so attached to this school, I love it so much, I want to help them do well. I think this year can be a turning point for us.”

The entire offensive line, which started three freshmen a year ago, according to ourlads.com, is back. With another spring in Sarkisian's offense, USC should look like a finely tuned machine come next fall. Even the best offensive teams in the Pac-12—Arizona State, Oregon and the like—could easily find themselves having to go toe-for-toe on the scoreboard with the Trojans. 

Along those lines, the Pac-12 has cemented itself as a deep conference. The South Division specifically has four teams—Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA and USC—that have a legitimate shot of heading to the conference championship game. Of those four, though, the Trojans have the right combination of blue-chip talent and experience in the right places. 

Above all, as Schnell explains, there's an attitude within the program that '15 really is lining up to be a special year: 

"

Kessler and USC don’t have use for “one game at a time” or “enjoying the journey” clichés. Everyone is here to win a title, and Kessler came back specifically for that reason. There’s a bit of added motivation, too. Last week documents from former USC assistant coach Todd McNair’s case against the NCAA were released per court orders, and the results all but confirm what many suspected for years: It looks like the NCAA was on a witch hunt of sorts in the wake of the Bush scandal, determined to mete out an unprecedented punishment.  

"

When asking if USC is back, it might behoove us to consider that the Trojans want the NCAA to know above anyone else. 

Why USC Won't Be Playoff Bound

Notice that just about everything above focused on the offense. If USC falls short of expectations—which is to say, a playoff appearance—it'll be for two reasons. 

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

First, the defense loses three key players in its defensive front seven: defensive end, Leonard Williams and linebackers J.R. Tavai and Hayes Pullard. For context, that's three of the top six leading tacklers (Pullard and Williams were No. 1 and No. 2, respectively), and about 42 percent of the team's 33 sacks.

Williams specifically was named as one of the 10 safest picks in the upcoming draft by Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com. Those are some huge loses and USC is still trying to recover in the depth-challenged months of spring. 

"We're a little depleted on the defensive front right now," Sarkisian told Rahshaun Haylock of Fox Sports West. "They're getting taxed but it needs to be hard right now in spring practice. It needs to be tough on them. We need to be tough on them. Football is a tough sport and we need to develop that mentality so that as tough as any game comes, our guys are going to respond."

Cornerback Adoree' Jackson and defensive back/outside linebacker Su'a Cravens have All-Conference and All-American potential, but how well the defense plays up toward the line of scrimmage will be a storyline to watch. Guys like defensive end Greg Townsend Jr. will have to step up big time. 

There's also some doubt about Sarkisian's ability to take this program to a national-title level. The Trojans experienced about every imaginable defeat last season. There was the ultimate "What the hell?" loss at Boston College. There was Arizona State's Hail Mary. There was giving up the 11-play, two-minute drive against Utah that resulted in a go-ahead score with eight seconds left. Then, there was the 18-point blowout loss to UCLA. 

Now that's a clean sweep. 

Finishing games has to be priority for Sarkisian in 2015 and depth issues aren't the factor they were made out to be. Can the Trojans do a better job on that front this time around? It's definitely something for which they won't get the benefit of the doubt.

USC has to prove it can replace key players easily and do a better job in tight, late-game situations. Those aren't simple problems with simple remedies. 

Verdict

USC is definitely the sexy playoff pick for 2015. Think Oklahoma from last year. But, as we saw with the Sooners, it takes more than a good bowl-game showing for that hype to come to fruition. 

Will the Trojans compete for a Pac-12 title? Absolutely, barring injury. However, there are a couple of teams that will challenge USC for a playoff spot. The first is Oregon. Even with Mariota gone, former Eastern Washington quarterback Vernon Adams should be an ideal fit for that offense. If he takes off—and no one is saying coming in over the summer and developing chemistry with existing players is easy—the Ducks will again be a tough team to beat. 

There's also USC's crosstown rival. UCLA returns almost everyone from last year's team but is breaking in a new quarterback. Josh Rosen, a 5-star early-enrollee, is already wowing in spring practices. It's just a matter of whether that will translate into game play right away. 

Additionally, three of USC's four or five toughest games—at Arizona State, at Notre Dame and at Oregon—will be on the road. 

Can USC get to double-digit wins in 2015? Yes, and with the way the offense plays, this could be a fun team to watch. Late-night Pac-12 games were a gem last season, and the Trojans could continue that tradition.

However, the concerns USC does have are enough to merit caution. The official prediction here is that Sarkisian's team improves on last year's record but falls just outside the playoff's top four. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.