Elite 8 2015: Last-Minute Picks and Updated Odds for March Madness Round 5

So it has come to this with the NCAA tournament. Eight teams remain, all of them at least at some point were expected to be here, and by the end of Sunday, the field will be cut in half. 

This year's Big Dance hasn't been the upset-laden affair some fans like, though in some ways that makes the four games on Saturday and Sunday more compelling. At some point, Cinderella's slipper has to fall off, so having eight powerhouse programs with legitimate title aspirations gives each game an extra weight. 

No, there's no mystery with teams such as Kentucky or Notre Dame or Duke or Michigan State or any of the other Elite Eight teams. You can't blame these programs for excelling at what they do better than everyone else in the country. 

Sometimes, the top teams are the ones left standing in the fight for a title. Here's all the information to know about the four games left this weekend, as well as what to expect heading into the Final Four next weekend. 

Date	Matchup	Start Time (ET)	Network	Spread	Prediction
Saturday, March 28	No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 2 Arizona	6:09 p.m.	TBS	Arizona (-2)	Arizona, 67-63
Saturday, March 28	No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Notre Dame	8:49 p.m.	TBS	Kentucky (-11)	Kentucky, 77-70
Sunday, March 29	No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 7 Michigan State	2:20 p.m.	CBS	MSU (-1)	Michigan State, 61-58
Sunday, March 29	No. 1 Duke vs. No. 2 Gonzaga	5:05 p.m.	CBS	Duke (-2)	Duke, 78-73

Last-Minute Saturday Analysis

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The most compelling Elite Eight game because it's got the two most evenly matched teams is the first one between Wisconsin and Arizona.

The Badgers have changed their style in the last two games against Oregon and North Carolina, running quickly to wear out teams with less depth, but it will be interesting to see how Bo Ryan approaches Arizona out of the gate. 

Even though this is a rematch of last year's Elite Eight, won by Wisconsin, you can't compare the two games because Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a much better player for Arizona, and Stanley Johnson was still in high school. 

There's also the challenge of Sean Miller trying to define his legacy. Despite rebuilding one of the nation's top programs and finding tournament success, the Wildcats head coach hasn't been able to reach the Final Four, which Josh Peters of USA Today wrote is driving Miller:

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It's been excruciating for Sean Miller, 46, who has won almost 75% of his games — his record is 283-98 — and guided his teams to the NCAA tournament nine times in his 11 years as a head coach. He has earned the informal title of best active coach to never reach the Final Four — a title Miller said he embraces.

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It's become clear that Miller has a better team now than at this time last year, thanks to the development of Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Ashley, as well as the star-making efforts of Johnson. 

Yet this is also a different Wisconsin team. Frank Kaminsky is still fantastic, but he's got the best supporting player of his career with Sam Dekker taking huge steps forward in the last 12 months. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, following Wisconsin's win over North Carolina, Dekker joined an exclusive club with his 23-point, 10-rebound effort:

Through three tournament games, Dekker is averaging 20 points and 5.7 rebounds. He's been just as important to the Badgers as Kaminsky. 

Yet, this is also the first time Wisconsin has gone up against an opponent with the cumulative size Arizona possesses. The Wildcats have six players listed at 6'9" or taller, per ESPN.com, which doesn't include stars such as Hollis-Jefferson (6'7") and Johnson (6'7"), whose arms and legs are so long it helps them play bigger. 

Wisconsin can spread the floor as well as any team Arizona has played in the tournament, but the Wildcats are so long and deep on defense that it's going to give Ryan's team problems. Look for Miller to get his first Final Four trip in a tense, hard-fought battle between two of the nation's best teams. 

The final game on Saturday has the makings of another crowning achievement for Kentucky. There's no doubt that Notre Dame is a more interesting opponent for the Wildcats than some tried to make West Virginia, which never shot well enough to convince me it was going to pull off an upset.

The Fighting Irish are carried by their ability to shoot, though they are limited against a team such as Kentucky because they lack size and any kind of significant inside presence.

Some are trying to come up with scenarios in which Notre Dame can beat Kentucky, with Chris Chase of USA Today providing the most realistic and thoughtful plan with a seven-point outline, headlined by Jerian Grant needing to play the game of his life:

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Grant runs the show offensively, even more so than coach Mike Brey, and knows how to space the floors, get teammates to set picks and always makes the right shot or pass. He’s the fuel that makes Notre Dame go. If he’s driving, shooting and defending, Kentucky could have problems with his speed.

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It does speak to where Kentucky is at that a team as good as Notre Dame will be forced to play a perfect game to even have a shot in this game. 

Perhaps the worst thing that could have happened to Notre Dame is Daxter Miles, the West Virginia freshman who made the proclamation his team would make Kentucky 36-1. 

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The Wildcats made sure Miles got the message in a 78-39 rout, but the bigger picture suggests maybe something clicked for an already great team after being called out. Here's what Willie Cauley-Stein said after about teams trying to beat Kentucky, via Kyle Tucker of The Courier-Journal:

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It's funny when you watch the TV on ways to beat us. What else they gonna add? Like, 'You got to have rocket shoes so you can jump up and get their balls before they go in the hoop?' What else they gonna come up with?You're just gonna have to beat us playing straight basketball and play out your mind and let us play out of our mind and go down to the end. That's how you're gonna beat us.

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Notre Dame's best chance to win this game is spreading Kentucky's defense out and hitting a lot of three-point shots. It has to be a high percentage of makes—not just throwing the ball up every time hoping things happen. 

Yet even in that scenario, the Fighting Irish still have to play defense against Kentucky. That's an issue because Mike Brey's team hasn't been consistent stopping opponents in the tournament. Wichita State only hit 40 percent of its shots, but that's a small team with four starting guards and not much depth. 

Kentucky runs at least nine deep and has more size than anyone in the country. Arizona is the only team that can come close to matching John Calipari's size and length, so it's a good thing that the two are predicted to meet in the Final Four. 

On the plus side, Notre Dame will keep this game against Kentucky closer than West Virginia could even have dreamed of on its best day.