Projecting the Miami Heat's Best and Worst 2015 NBA Playoff Matchups

The Miami Heat haven't punched their ticket to the playoffs quite yet, but it's certainly starting to look like they'll be around for the postseason.

The Heat are 32-38 and hold a one-game lead over the Boston Celtics for the Eastern Conference's seventh seed. They're 1.5 games up on the ninth-seeded Charlotte Hornets and actually have a shot at moving up into the sixth seed.

The Milwaukee Bucks are clinging to a narrow, 2.5-game lead over the Heat for that sixth slot, but they've lost six of their last seven—and it should have been seven straight. Miami has a small chance to unseat them, which means it could be looking at all sorts of possible playoff opponents.

Some of those matchups would be great for the Heat, while others would be...not so good.

Let's take a look at a few of Miami's best and worst potential first- or second-round opponents.

Worst Matchups

Atlanta Hawks

This is the worst-case scenario. The Heat can't afford to draw the Hawks in the first round.

Miami is 0-3 against Atlanta this season and has been shredded defensively when the two have met. The Hawks are scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions against the Heat, which is well above their season average.

Atlanta is arguably the best passing team in the league, as it leads the NBA in assist percentage at 67.2. Its ball movement has caused the Heat all sorts of problems, especially when they try to blitz Atlanta's ball-handlers.

The Hawks have had no issues beating Miami's blitzes with pick-and-pops or by getting the ball inside to Paul Millsap or Al Horford.

Millsap and Horford can both handle the ball, shoot and are heady passers. That makes them the worst type of opponent when Miami is beaten on a blitz and caught in a de facto three-on-four situation.

Too often, those failed blitzes have led to easy three-pointers. The Hawks are shooting 42.3 percent from deep against the Heat on 26 attempts per game. Miami just hasn't been able to pull off the perfect rotations necessary to blitz a team like the Hawks, who have shooters everywhere—including a human ball of flame named Kyle Korver.

The Heat have tried ditching the aggression at times, but that's led to Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder living at the basket.

Even fun lineups that feature Michael Beasley at center wouldn't work against Atlanta. It could counter by playing Millsap at the 5—he's played there for short spurts, per 82games—where he could abuse Beasley on the low block.

It's not as though the Heat don't have any shot here. Hassan Whiteside would feast on the offensive glass and could hurt the Hawks in the pick-and-roll as well.

However, this is definitely a matchup for Miami to avoid.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Heat actually have a 2-1 record against the Cavaliers. But one of those wins came in late December—when both teams looked completely different—and another came when the Cavs were without Kevin Love.

In a seven-game series, it'd be hard not to seriously favor Cleveland.

The Cavs are perhaps the only team in the East that can match the Heat when it comes to top-shelf talent. And beyond that, they present a lot of the same problems that the Hawks do.

Love, like Horford and Millsap, is terrifying on pick-and-pops and rolls to the basket. But Miami can't afford to soften its defense and keep its bigs glued to him. The Cavs' guards—especially Kyrie Irving—are scary off-the-bounce shooters and are unafraid to launch from three if they get even an inch of space.

Courtesy of Instagiffer

Love's post game also presents a huge issue. He's known more for his shooting and rebounding, but he's one of the best low-post scorers in the league.

Though he's only shooting 45 percent on the low block, he rarely turns the ball over and draws fouls on nearly 20 percent of his possessions. That's a problem.

Miami's only real option to defend Love down low—at least when he's at the 4—is to give Udonis Haslem a lot of burn. Its other options at the 4 are just too small, and it's unlikely to play Whiteside and Chris Andersen together.

Haslem used to be a great role player, but he's no longer the guy he once was. He's gotten murdered defensively this season and is too slow to keep up with springier athletes in the pick-and-roll.

Love would kill him on short, one- or two-dribble rolls to the basket.

Cleveland is admittedly a weak defensive club. It's been sub-average even since adding Timofey Mozgov, allowing 102.9 points per 100 possessions. Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade should be able to do some damage at the rim and could potentially win Miami a few games through the strength of that alone.

Still, the Cavs are good at forcing ball-handlers into tough mid-range jumpers and have a lot of athletic wings to throw at Wade and Luol Deng. It's hard to see the Heat outscoring them for a full series.

Best Matchups

Toronto Raptors

The Heat and Raptors have split their two meetings this season, with Toronto winning their most recent matchup, 102-92. Despite that, the Raptors have some real flaws that the Heat could exploit.

Offensively, Miami should be able to overwhelm Toronto. The Raptors are giving up 104.8 points per 100 possessions, the worst rate of any playoff team. Moreover, some of their biggest defensive problems overlap the Heat's biggest offensive strengths.

Toronto has a lot of size, but it's weirdly bad at keeping teams off the offensive boards.

Opponents are rebounding 26.5 percent of their misses against the Raptors, a bottom-10 mark. Whiteside would have a field day on the glass, especially if the Heat could get Jonas Valanciunas into foul trouble early.

That's certainly not out of the question. Toronto gives up a ton of shots at the rim and, not coincidentally, also sends opponents to the line more often than all but a handful of teams. Miami is one of the very best in the league at getting to the free-throw line, and the Toronto wings don't have a real shot at slowing Wade down.

Courtesy of Instagiffer

The Raptors are a good, versatile offensive team and could give the Heat some trouble on that end. But Miami should have more freedom to blitz against them than the teams mentioned above. That blitzing could cut out one of Toronto's biggest weapons—Lou Williams and Kyle Lowry's off-the-bounce shooting.

One other thing that could be interesting in this matchup: Beasley at center.

Toronto's only real low-post threat is Valanciunas. When he's out of the game, Miami should be free to trot Beasley out at the 5 without any serious repercussions.

Obviously, those lineups would have problems defensively, but they could cause the Raptors some serious headaches.

Washington Wizards

Miami is just 1-3 against the Wizards on the season, but there's reason to like its chances in a seven-game series.

Washington is talented, but it's been awful since the All-Star break, especially on the offensive end. The Wizards are scoring just 97.3 points per 100 possessions since the break, the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Their offense just looks off-kilter. They have a lot of great shooters on the roster but take just 16.6 threes per game, also the fourth-lowest rate in the league. They've traded a lot of those threes for mid-range (and deeper) jumpers.

John Wall and Bradley Beal both love to take pull-up shots as soon as they turn the corner on screens.

Courtesy of Instagiffer

That plays right into the Heat's hands. In fact, they might be better off chucking the blitzing against the Wizards and just dropping back on every pick-and-roll.

Washington is a good defensive team—allowing 100.3 points per 100 possessions, a top-five mark—but the Heat should have some fun ways of attacking it. The Wizards mostly play traditional lineups featuring two bigs. Miami could match them by playing Haslem or they could instead draw a lot of weird mismatches by playing Deng or Beasley at the 4 instead.

That could cause some defensive issues, but it would be really tough for the Wizards to deal with.

There's no way Nene or Kris Humphires can guard wings on the perimeter, and Washington doesn't hit the glass hard enough to really make the Heat pay for going small.

Miami could also take advantage of the Wade-Beal matchup. Beal is an okay defender, but he's gotten torched in the post this season (on a small sample). He doesn't have the strength or savvy to hang with Wade down low. If the Heat can isolate him on the low block, they could rack up some easy points.

All statistics accurate as of 3/24/2015 and courtesy of NBA.com/Stats or Basketball-Reference.com unless stated otherwise.