Frank Kaminsky Locking Up 2015 NBA Draft Stock as No-Brainer Lottery Selection
Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky doesn't fit the mold of most NBA draft lottery prospects.
He's not an explosive athlete, and there isn't anything electrifying about his playing style. He's a senior who turns 22 in April, so he'll be 23 years old before his rookie year is up. And he comes from a program that is not known for sending players to the Association (just six since 2000).
So why is he widely considered a lotto pick, perhaps even a top-10 selection?
Because Frank "The Tank" is that good.
Even though he's a 7-footer, there aren't many skills he can't tackle. Kaminsky's footwork, outside shooting, passing awareness and defensive instincts make him as unique a prospect as you'll find in college.
He wasn't always a can't-miss kid, however. Marquee programs didn't flock to recruit him at Benet Academy in Lisle, Illinois, and he spent nearly all of his freshman and sophomore campaigns at Wisconsin paying his dues on the bench.
Things are much different now. During the Badgers' NCAA tourney opener against Coastal Carolina, he delivered his latest masterpiece in a series of clinics on big-man versatility.
His 27 points were comprised of a mix of three-pointers, driving layups, post-ups and free throws. Kaminsky also controlled the glass (12 rebounds), dealt four assists and committed zero fouls.
This wasn't just some fluky performance against a mid-major team. He does this type of damage against almost everyone: 17 points and nine boards against Duke, 31 points and eight boards against Michigan State, 20 points at Ohio State.
Thanks to his height, post moves and fluidity, he's a tough cover when he catches the ball near the basket. He can score with either hand, and he has the body control to pivot, adjust to the defender and use the glass beautifully.
Watch his footwork and savvy in the lane here, as he scores even though the Chanticleers send multiple defenders at him:
From the perimeter, Kaminsky is equally lethal, if not more so.
During his first two years in Madison, he didn't average more than 11 minutes per game, so we didn't see his developing jumper. As a junior in 2013-14, he turned some heads with 37 triples at a 37.8 percent clip.
This season, he's been even more efficient, drilling 40.7 percent of his threes. Kaminsky also has a nice touch on mid-range shots, hitting 49 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com.
A look at his 2014-15 shot chart indicates he can fill up the hoop from pretty much any spot on the floor.
More importantly, it shows that he prefers to shoot a higher volume of shots from productive areas: the paint and beyond the arc.
We shouldn't undersell the value of having a 7-footer who can space the floor. Kaminsky's ability to intermittently step out to the perimeter has allowed Wisconsin's cutters and slashers to carve up opposing defenses.
Watch how his mere presence forces Michigan State's bigs to stay near the arc, creating post-ups and cuts for his teammates:
The same thing can and will happen for his NBA teammates.
But will his pro team sacrifice a bunch on the boards and on defense with Kaminsky as the center? Well, he doesn't project to dominate in those departments, but he has enough length and agility to hold his own.
He's only grabbing 9.9 boards per 40 minutes, which is partially a reflection of his unspectacular athleticism and physicality compared to other bigs. However, the low total is also due to his time spent on the perimeter, which cuts down on his offensive rebounding chances. When it comes to defensive rebounding, he does just fine, registering a robust 25.5 percentage, per Basketball-Reference.com.
As a defender, Kaminsky has grown into a cagey rim-protector. He moves his feet well, alters shots and blocks 1.9 attempts per 40 minutes.
The best part is that he only commits 1.9 fouls per 40 minutes, an outstanding block-to-foul ratio. Using his length, discipline and precision timing, he's able to redirect opponents' forays without crashing into them.
David Gardner of Sports Illustrated explained that although Kaminsky is occasionally bested by powerful centers, he's valuable because he has the footwork to play away from the hoop: "He can be backed down by bigger post players in the paint, but he's adept at guarding switches away from the basket."
How does all of this translate to the NBA?
Let's not allow our appreciation for his collegiate supremacy to exaggerate the NBA projections. He's not going to be a superstar, and he won't be the featured weapon of an offense.
But in his prime, he could be a second or third option on his squad. He'll feast off pick-and-pops and sprinkle in a healthy dose of post-ups against favorable matchups. Kaminsky will play off his team's star well, and you can expect efficient production in his first year or two in the league.
The Brad Miller comparisons aren't too far off, as he'll also be a fluid inside-out big man who gets 13-15 points and six to eight rebounds in his prime. Kaminsky will also be deadlier from three-point land, as he'll take more triples and make a higher percentage of them (Miller shot 33 percent from deep for his career).
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan is naturally going to be biased, but he offers that the late-blooming Kaminsky is still improving and will continue to expand his game. "He has picked up things and has been able to go to the next level of learning," he told Jeff Arnold of The New York Times. "Where some guys maybe get to a point where they plateau, Frank is still getting better."
Most importantly, he's going to give his coach a ton of flexibility and streamline the offense of whichever lineup he's a part of.
That kind of size, versatility and polish makes him a no-brainer toward the end of the 2015 lottery.
Daniel O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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