Predicting Indianapolis Colts' Starting Lineup After the 1st Wave of Free Agency
With the major wave of free agency in the past, the Indianapolis Colts already have a different look.
Whether it's a new outside linebacker, receiver, running back or lineman, GM Ryan Grigson isn't afraid to go after the players he wants. The Colts didn't spend nearly $70 million dollars, according to Spotrac's Michael Ginnitti, for non-contributors.
The draft will bring much-needed young talent, ideally, but we can already get a good idea of what the Colts will trot out as a starting lineup come August. As long as the team stays healthy, here is what we can expect from the Colts in 2015.
Quarterback
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Starter: Andrew Luck
The franchise QB, Andrew Luck. Nobody else is starting for the Colts unless the unthinkable happens.
Luck had a breakout year in 2014, leading the league in passing touchdowns (40) and finishing in the top seven in every important passing statistic. Luck is one of the league's premier passers already, although he may not have climbed into the ever-elusive "elite" category.
But that will come, and it will come soon. Luck showcased his limitless potential again in 2014, and it will continue to grow as he matures. He is the team, he is the future. If he goes down, Matt Hasselbeck can't save the Colts.
Running Back
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Starter: Frank Gore
Rotational: Rookie
The Colts brought in coveted veteran Frank Gore on a three-year, $12 million contract. Overpaid, sure. But Gore fills a very specific role for the Colts: holding down the starting job for a short period of time and helping mold a young back for the future.
Gore is reliable, having started 60 consecutive regular-season games for the San Francisco 49ers, the most by any current running back, according to the NFL Game Statistics and Information System. Gore is aging, but he has still averaged over 1,100 yards and 4.4 yards per carry over the last four seasons.
The important course of action the Colts should take, however, is to draft a running back in this talent-laden 2015 draft. That rookie could learn under Gore and be a member of a committee in 2015. Don't expect Gore or the projected rookie to be a big fantasy star in 2015, but both should fill important roles and are key for long and short-term success.
Wide Receiver
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Starters: T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson
Third Receiver: Donte Moncrief
With Reggie Wayne aging, and the team deciding to not to bring him back, the Colts needed a new No. 2 receiver to pair with T.Y. Hilton. Hilton proved himself in 2015, catching over 80 passes for the second consecutive season and gaining over 1,300 yards. He fully took over the No. 1 spot for the entire season, but when the New England Patriots took him out with double teams, the offense collapsed.
The team needed help opposite Hilton and got it in Johnson. With Johnson, the Colts got an experienced, athletic possession receiver who can go up and get a ball in traffic as well as run precise routes. He's an able-bodied replacement for Wayne, and he will provide a veteran presence in a dangerously young group of wide receivers.
Second-year receiver Donte Moncrief will rotate in as the third receiver, likely with Hilton moving into the slot in three-wide receiver sets.
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Tight End
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Starters: Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen
There shouldn't be any significant changes at the tight end position in 2015, with both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen returning and blocking specialist Jack Doyle coming back as well.
It's a big year for both Fleener and Allen, with each of their rookie contracts expiring after 2015. Both will be looking to cash in on a big deal, and the Colts may not be able to keep both.
For Fleener, 2015 needs to result in more consistency, as he continues to evolve as a playmaker and become a true threat as a receiver, rather than just a piece that gets open due to well-designed schemes. Allen, on the other hand, just needs to prove that he can stay on the field. He once looked like the next great all-around tight end but injuries have slowed his development.
But, as long as they are healthy, having two tight ends that each scored eight touchdowns in 2014 is a valuable asset.
Offensive Line
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Starting Line (left to right): Anthony Castonzo, Jack Mewhort, Khaled Holmes, Todd Herremans, Gosder Cherilus
The starting offensive line from 2014 should return in 2015, with one key difference: Todd Herremans.
Herremans will likely compete with Hugh Thornton for the right guard position, and if the veteran doesn't win that battle, it will likely be because of Thornton's development (assuming the health of both).
Perhaps keeping most of the line the same doesn't sit well with some, but the Colts line was closer to average last year than many seem to think. With Anthony Castonzo and Jack Mewhort holding down the left side, the Colts are secure on at least one half.
The real question is the right and the interior. Holmes has flashed signs, but he has been able to earn very little playing time over the last two years. The Colts also have Jonotthan Harrison in reserve, but he lost the job to Holmes near the end of 2014.
At right tackle, Gosder Cherilus struggled with injuries in 2014, but he can hold down the position if he's healthy. If he does get hampered again, Joe Reitz and Herremans can both fill in at tackle, but they won't be long-term solutions.
Defensive Line
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Starters: Kendall Langford (5T), Josh Chapman (NT), Arthur Jones (3T)
It will be difficult for the Colts to replace Cory Redding at the five-tech position but newly added Kendall Langford will have to try. Redding has not only been the best member of the front seven over the last three seasons (sans Robert Mathis), but he's been the defense's emotional leader as well.
Arthur Jones will need to step up to partially fill that void, although the return of Robert Mathis and D'Qwell Jackson will help. But Jones didn't live up to his $33 million contract in 2014, partially due to some lingering injuries and partially because of a downgrade in talent around him. If he improves in 2015, it will be a great help for Indianapolis.
The Colts could add a rookie on the line from the draft, but even in that scenario, I'd envision said rookie taking some time to transition. Starter-ready rookies don't come at pick No. 29 too often.
Outside Linebackers
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Starters: Robert Mathis, Trent Cole
Rotational: Jonathan Newsome, Erik Walden
What was once a detriment to the Colts has become a deep group.
The addition of Trent Cole gives Indianapolis another veteran pass-rusher who can win one-on-one battles. Along with Robert Mathis, the Colts have experience, but they are also worn with age. Between the two of them, the Colts hope to last the full season with rotational pass-rushers to keep each other fresh.
Newsome is the hope of the future, and he will have plenty to learn from a healthy Mathis and Cole, hopefully. Walden will rotate in as the strong-side linebacker (likely behind Cole) to provide run-stuffing ability and versatility. While he was overpaid in 2013, Walden has become a capable member of the Colts front seven.
The wild card is third-year linebacker Bjoern Werner. The former first-round pick fell out of favor near the end of last year, with Newsome earning more snaps as time went on. With Cole coming to Indianapolis, he may be the odd one out, unless the team decides to cut Walden for the cap space, or Mathis doesn't heal as expected.
Inside Linebackers
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Starters: Jerrell Freeman, D'Qwell Jackson
While the starters will look the same in Indianapolis, that's a serious thing for the team to consider.
Jerrell Freeman and D'Qwell Jackson have both proven to be capable starters at one time or another in their careers but both struggled in 2014. Freeman struggled to sift through the line against the run, and Jackson was a sizable liability against the pass.
But, with no other options on the roster, the Colts will roll with both again. An early draft pick will be the only option to be a long-term starter but even they won't likely usurp either to start the year. The Colts have little depth behind the two, with Henoc Muamba being the only real help.
Cornerbacks
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Starters: Vontae Davis, Greg Toler
Nickel corner: Darius Butler
Like linebacker, the Colts will bring back the same group of starters at cornerback in 2015. Unlike linebacker, the Colts' cornerback group was very successful, and it should be again.
Vontae Davis had a breakout season in 2014, emerging as one of the top cornerbacks in the league. The Colts used him like a top cornerback, too, trusting him to lock down his side of the field and focusing attention elsewhere. Greg Toler is a decent partner for Davis, though he gets picked on with quarterbacks ignoring that side of the field.
The Colts re-signed Darius Butler to be the nickel corner, which was a wise move. Butler has rejuvenated his career as the Colts' third cornerback, and he is well worth his two-year $5 million contract.
Safeties
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Starters: Mike Adams, Veteran Free Agent
Arguably the weakest position on the Colts' roster, safety still has a lot of questions for Indianapolis.
The Colts re-signed Mike Adams to come back and help solidify one safety spot but more moves are likely coming for Indianapolis. Another veteran could fill the void next to Adams, or the Colts could allow Dewey McDonald or Winston Guy to fight for the spot.
Adams is reliable but also aging quickly, and he could hit a wall or get hurt. It seems risky to leave the other spot up to a second-year undrafted player or a practice squad traveler, but if the Colts don't find a safety that fits their profile, that may be the only solution. The 2015 draft is a weak draft for safeties.
Specialists
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Punter: Pat McAfee
Kicker: Adam Vinatieri
Long Snapper: Matt Overton
The same, reliable group returns for Indianapolis' special teams.
The Colts had one of the top 10 special teams in the league by DVOA in 2014, according to Football Outsiders. With McAfee's punting growing better each year (he earned his first Pro Bowl selection in 2014) and Vinatieri continuing to be dependable (he missed just one field goal last year), the Colts are in good hands, err, feet.
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