Saints Gamble on Graham Trade Creates More Questions Than Answers for Drew Brees

After last year's failed all-in acquisition of safety Jairus Byrd, the Saints reacted with a stunning trade as free agency opened, sending tight end Jimmy Graham and a fourth-round pick to Seattle for center Max Unger and a first-round pick. Fox Sports' Jay Glazer first reported the move Tuesday afternoon. In short, it's one of the most fascinating trades of the past 10 seasons: 

New Orleans gave up its best receiver, a player who is one of the most physically dominant players of his era. In four seasons of starting with the Saints, Graham has finished in the top 10 in Football Outsiders' DYAR rankings for tight ends four times. The ink was still drying on a four-year, $40 million deal to keep Graham in New Orleans last offseason. Let's see how quarterback Drew Brees feels about this:

The issue we have to account for when discussing Graham's value, however, is his propensity to get hurt. While Graham has an amazing pain tolerance and plays through just about every injury he suffers, he's often not at 100 percent while doing so. This leads to many a game in which Graham is out there as a decoy first. If a 100 percent Graham isn't often something that exists, I think it is at least defensible to deal him if an offer like this comes around. You're not going to find many teams willing to trade a first-round pick for any player on a $10 million-per-season contract. 

The other part of this trade that made some sense for the Saints is the acquisition of Unger. New Orleans at its peak was unique in that the shorter Brees was able to step up in the pocket with no fear, because the Saints had created a pocket of interior linemen that was unquestionably good. Former guard Carl Nicks was an All-Pro at his peak before repeated infections in Tampa Bay forced an early retirement. Jahri Evans has been voted an All-Pro four different times. Center was handed off between Jonathan Goodwin—a very good player in his prime—and the solid Brian de la Puente. The Saints could always count on those on the interior line to anchor down and give Brees the throwing lanes he needed to succeed.

Year	Offensive DVOA (Rk)	Pass Offense DVOA (Rk)	Run Offense DVOA (Rk)
2011	33.0% (2)	50.1% (3)	18.5% (2)
2012	11.9% (9)	24.7% (9)	1.6% (11)
2013	16.0% (5)	35.9% (3)	-5.3% (19)
2014	10.0% (8)	20.7% (9)	0.9% (9)

This was an important enough dichotomy for the Saints that they even went out and signed two-time Pro Bowler Ben Grubbs to replace Nicks when he walked in free agency. Without the center of that offensive line holding strong, Brees' step-up game is limited, which is a huge problem for a player who may have problems seeing over the line normally because of his height. 

The Saints faded badly last year, becoming a good passing offense but no longer a great one. The whispers about Brees' decline got louder. Heading into his age-36 season, for the first time in almost a decade there is uncertainty about Brees. 

But speaking of decline, have a look-see at the interior of the Saints offensive line. Goodwin is 36 and was only around because the Saints could find no one better on the scrapheap. Grubbs just turned 31. Evans will turn 32 before the season starts. They, collectively, were awful last season.

Player	2012-2013 PFF Grade	2014 PFF Grade
Ben Grubbs	+35.3	-0.2
Jahri Evans	+30	-6.5
Brian de la Puente	+30.7	+4.3 (in CHI)
Jonathan Goodwin	+23.3 (in SF)	-6.8
Max Unger	+27.1 (in SEA)	+10.3 (in SEA)

This isn't to say that the all-Pro Unger alone is a surefire solution—the Saints may need more help than that. But given the lack of available salary-cap space that comes with general manager Mickey Loomis' all-in moves last offseason, they faced limited options. There wasn't much of a way for them to shuffle the deck without making a monster deal like this happen. 

So the Saints aren't making a move that they know will solve the problem here. What they're doing is choosing between the lesser of two evils. Does improving the interior line mean enough that they can get away with a less impressive receiving corps? Is Brandin Cooks going to be able to step up into the role Graham vacates? You can quickly see how this move just creates more questions than answers.

Name	2015 age	2014 snaps	DVOA (Rk)	DYAR (Rk)
Kenny Stills	23	626	32.4% (2)	295 (12)
Marques Colston	32	889	12.5% (17)	197 (24)
Brandin Cooks	22	545	9.6% (27)	123 (35)
Nick Toon	27	241	15.7% (DNQ)	52 (DNQ)
Ben Watson	35	578	-22.2% (43)	-31 (39)
Josh Hill	25	293	31.7% (DNQ)	57 (DNQ)

Tight end slides into the questionable hands of Josh Hill, who had a nice small-sample-size season, and longtime veteran Ben Watson. I doubt the Saints will prioritize the position in the draft or free agency, and I expect the beneficiaries of the targets to be Cooks and receiving back Travaris Cadet.

As much as it seems completely insane to trade away one of the most physically dominant receivers of his era, I think there is a method to Loomis' madness here. The Saints have long identified the interior offensive line as a prerequisite for the way they play offense. To that extent, I wouldn't even be surprised if Evans were given his walking papers and the Saints invested that newly acquired first-round pick on a highly regarded interior lineman like Iowa's Brandon Scherff or Florida State's Cam Erving. 

It's hard to imagine the Saints becoming Super Bowl contenders again without a home run draft class. But in dealing Graham away, Loomis does two things: He increases the odds that this class is a home run and gets backs to the roots of the Super Bowl champion 2008 Saints, who won with only Marques Colston as a stellar receiver. 

I'd characterize this as more "propping the window open with a couple of toothpicks" than "a surefire win." But after last season, it was clear that change needed to hit the offensive line. Loomis did it the only way he possibly could after the spending spree of the 2013 offseason.

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.