Indianapolis Colts' Looming Extensions May Limit Free-Agency Flexibility

If NFL free-agency rumors are to be believed, the Indianapolis Colts are making a hard run at pretty much every big-name player available this offseason.

From Ndamukong Suh to Greg Hardy, Andre Johnson to Brandon Marshall. From Adrian Peterson to DeMarco Murray and back to Frank Gore. If they have played in a Pro Bowl game at some point and are a free agent, it's a fair bet that they've been linked to the Colts.

The Colts are a potential title-contending team with the quarterback of the future, and they have oodles of cap space, so the connections make sense. 

But Colts fans shouldn't go getting their hopes too high. While the Colts may be linked to a plethora of names, their hands will be tied more than the raw cap number seems to communicate.

On the short term, the Colts are in fine shape. The team has just over $42 million in cap space right now, according to Spotrac.com, with roughly $2 million of that to go to restricted free agent Jerrell Freeman, who was offered a second-round tender on Thursday, per The Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder.

Another $5.9 million can be saved by releasing Trent Richardson and Donald Thomas, two moves that, while not certain, are fairly likely.

So at best, the Colts will have around $46 million to play with in 2015, at worst $40 million. That's not a bad deal. But let's see what the Colts have to get themselves with that money.

On offense, the team needs at least one running back addition, but preferably two. They need a starter and someone to join the rotation with said starter and Dan Herron.

On the offensive line, the team likely needs at least two bodies, one a starter or fringe starter on the interior and one depth tackle. The wide receiver position has little depth and needs a veteran presence (three quality bodies total, one of which can join the top-three rotation immediately).

Defensively, the needs are staggering. The defensive line is in need of at least one starter, if not two, with three total bodies really being needed to have a full rotation. Outside linebacker has quantity, but it could use a pass-rushing upgrade.

Inside linebacker has two starters but little depth and needs at least one more quality body (possibly a draft pick). The team needs a starting slot cornerback and two depth corners and two starting safeties in the defensive backfield.

Whew.

By my count, that's at least 16 new players (15 if recently signed Ben Heenan makes the roster as a rotational guard), including seven starters or heavy-snap rotational players.

Of course, if you draft well, that lessens the blow. If all eight draft picks make the roster, that leaves the Colts with just seven or eight free agents to sign, although they all would likely command decent prices.

Still, since the rookies will account for less than $5 million of the cap space in 2015, that leaves the Colts with $35-$40 million in cap space still to work with. Even if they were to sign a guy like Ndamukong Suh, that's more than enough to make it work.

But it's not the short term that the Colts need to be worried about, it's what's coming next year or the year after. 

If the Colts don't extend any of their top players still under rookie contracts this season, they'll almost certainly have to in 2016. With Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Anthony Castonzo all waiting their turn, not to mention tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, the Colts' ability to lean on young players at an incredible discount is about to be at an end.

Player	2015 Cap Hit	Rookie Contract Avg	Projected Avg. 2016 & Beyond
Andrew Luck	$7.03 M	$5.53 M	$25 M
T.Y. Hilton	$1.67 M	$660,600	$9.5 M
Anthony Castonzo	$7.43 M	$2.00 M	$10 M
Coby Fleener	$1.70 M	$1.34 M	$7.5 M
Dwayne Allen	$1.72 M	$770,076	$6.5 M
Totals	$19.55 M	$10.03 M	$58.5 M

Andrew Luck is projected to have the largest contract in history, worth around $25 million per year, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.

For Hilton, Castonzo, Fleener and Allen, the above estimates are if they stay healthy and productive in 2015.

The above projections would put Hilton in the top 12 current wide receiver contracts. He finished sixth in yards among receivers in 2014 and 11th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, so that seems fair. With the cap increases, however, this actually could end up being a low estimate.

Castonzo was Pro Football Focus' 12th-ranked tackle in 2014 and has improved every season. If he has another strong season in 2015, it's reasonable that he would slightly outpace Branden Albert's five-year, $47 million contract from last offseason.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

For the two tight ends, 2014 will have a big impact on their contracts. Fleener has an incredible ceiling and could end up getting an upper-tier contract, but if he disappoints in 2015, he could be looking at something like Dennis Pitta's five-year, $32 million contract. The current projection is something similar to the extension Greg Olsen just received, as reported by David Newton of ESPN.com. It's an optimistic projection.

Allen's is optimistic as well, and it relies on him staying healthy. When healthy, he's one of the most well-rounded players in the league and worth more than Fleener. But his injury history will likely lower his price, as will his lack of big-play ability. Still, a top red-zone threat and versatile blocker will command over $6 million per year if healthy.

So let's look ahead to 2017 as an example, when all of these contracts would be in play. The Colts currently only have $41 million in tied-up cap for that season, but it only covers 12 players; add the above core players, and you have nearly $100 million tied up in less than half of the roster.

This is where this year's free-agency class comes into play.

Could the Colts make a contract like Suh's potential $18 million per year work? Or could they afford to overpay to grab multiple top players, like a combination of DeMarco Murray, Mike Iupati and Andre Johnson?

Certainly. Colts' cap expert Mike Bluem is one of the best in the business, and the Colts don't have the years of bad management built up to put them in a bind anytime soon.

But truly exorbitant spending in 2015 would give the Colts much, much less flexibility in 2016 and beyond, when they'll have at least three or four "chunk" contract extensions kicking in. Luck, Castonzo and the 2012 draft class are the core of the Colts' roster, doing the vast majority of the heavy lifting.

The Colts don't have much of a choice but to re-sign them. They do have a choice in which free agents to go after in 2015 and how much they choose to spend on them.

That's not to say the Colts shouldn't go after some quality free agents. They have the money, and it must be spent.

But there are a number of teams with lots of cap space this offseason, and most of them (Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, etc.) don't have a top-tier quarterback contract to worry about. If the Colts get into a bidding war with those teams, they likely can't afford to win.