Buffalo Bills Fans: Why Toronto is Your Friend (Maybe)

The future of the Buffalo Bills is a constant topic of conversation in Bills Country, and when it's not being discussed out loud, it is more often than not in the back of the minds of those who are thinking or discussing anything having to do with the NFL in Buffalo.

In the past couple of years, a fear and resentment of Toronto has begun to develop. As the team has scheduled one, and eventually two regular season games at Rogers Centre in downtown Toronto, Bills fans are becoming extremely anxious, that this may be the beginning of a transfer of the franchise to their Canadian neighbor.

But before anyone vilifies Toronto any further, there are some facts and circumstances that require in depth consideration.

First, as we cite in a related article, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/237891-hey-buffalo-its-time-to-declare-war-on-la Buffalo may face a much more sinister and immediate threat to retaining the Bills franchise from Los Angeles than Toronto.

That being said, most of the focus of a possible move by the Bills is on Toronto, so let's look at an opposite problem in the NHL. Everyone knows that Jim Balsille, principal owner of RIM, the company that makes the Blackberry, is determined to locate a second NHL franchise in or near the Toronto market.

Most recently he's looked at Hamilton or nearby Kitchener. Hamilton's new arena is within the Sabres' sphere of influence, as designated by the NHL, and any franchise to play in that building would owe the Sabres huge compensation fees for infringement on the market. On the other hand, the proposed venue in Kitchener is outside of that protected zone, and Balsille could move the Phoenix Coyotes there with no obligation to the Sabres whatsoever.

Having another NHL team in the Golden Horseshoe or the Niagara Peninsula would undoubtedly siphon off a small but significant portion of regular Sabres' attendees. Although many of the Canadians who attend Sabres' games cheer against them, their money is just as good as those who root for the team. So if there is going to be another franchise between Toronto and Buffalo, it would almost be better for Buffalo to have them in Hamilton rather than Kitchener.

But what does this have to do with the Bills? The answer is simple.

There are many in Toronto and in the NFL front office who would like to see the NFL in Toronto. Most of those people also consider the Bills to be the most logical franchise to establish in Toronto. The Bills have a significant following in South Central Ontario, and it may be more in numbers and in enthusiasm than the Sabres' Canadian supporters/attendees. Moving another franchise or expanding to Toronto would cut into the Bills market substantially and could result in the Bills being unable to sustain themselves in Buffalo.

Therefore, just as having the Coyotes locate in Hamilton or especially Kitchener could be a fatal blow to the Sabres, having another NFL franchise located in Toronto could cut off an essential lifeline to the Bills. But if Toronto doesn't get their own franchise, will they be even more intent on getting a piece of the Bills?  

If the Bills leave Buffalo completely for Toronto, most Buffalo fans on the American side of the border will find little comfort in their geographic proximity, and will feel as if the team has abandoned them and their city.

But what if it's not an either/or situation? What if Buffalo and Toronto could join forces somehow?

We alluded to this superficially in a humor piece recently entitled, "Buffalo is the New Toronto" published at B/R. Now let's take a more serious look at what may be the best scenario for saving the Bills for Buffalo in part if not completely.

First, a little lesson in demographics. There's a former UB professor, Richard Florida, who now lives in Toronto and writes about demographic trends. He is one of the first to identify the mega-regions, what have previously been called megalopolises, as being the most relevant demographic category to study in terms of trends and economic activity.

Florida would say that mega-regions are more relevant than nations, states, provinces, or traditionally defined metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) as measured by the U.S. Department of the Census.

One of the ways Florida defines mega-regions is with the use of nighttime satellite photos. The configuration and density of lights is superior to any other criteria in mapping true economic regions.

This is important because in the same way that we shifted from defining, identifying and ranking U.S. cities according to the population and commerce that existed inside city limits, to Metropolitan Statistical Areas, in the 60's and 70's (since we learned then that core cities combined with their contiguous suburbs were the true measure of a "city's" size and prosperity) we must now adjust to a new paradigm shift that focuses on clusters of contiguous and semi-contiguous metropolitan areas.

Yes, I am fully aware that this is a sports article, not a sociology or demographics dissertation, but this is important information to understand as we consider the potential risks and benefits of Buffalo's relationship to Toronto relative to the future of the Buffalo Bills.

Florida has defined a mega-region that includes both Buffalo and Toronto and has labeled it Tor-Buff-Chester. According to Florida this mega region extends from the easternmost suburbs of Rochester to Buffalo, across the border along the Niagara Peninsula (Fort Erie to St. Catherines extending to Hamilton),  encompassing the Golden Horseshoe (the area from Toronto to Hamilton and beyond) and the GTA (Greater Toronto Area).

According to Florida, Tor-Buff-Chester is the fourth largest mega-region in North America, following New York-New Jersey, Southern California (San Diego-LA), and Chicago-Milwaukee.

Think about the significance of this. While Buffalo and its citizens tend to have an inferiority complex about the Buffalo Niagara Region relative to other larger and more glitzy metro areas in the country, if Buffalo can see itself as part of this mega-region, they suddenly become part of the fourth largest "city" on the continent.  

Florida says that Tor-Buff-Chester's economy is equal to 60% of Canada, and if the region were a nation, would rank 16th in the world.

The bottom line for Buffalonians is that Buffalo's best hope for economic revitalization is to maximize its relationship to Toronto (as well as Rochester), in other words to become a whole-hearted, fully participating member of Tor-Buff-Chester.

Florida recommends that an inter-city infrastructure be constructed including high speed rail, expedited border crossing, high speed ferries on Lake Ontario, and extensive, intentional economic, cultural, and governmental integration of the entire region. The result would be increased opportunity and prosperity for the entire region, but especially for Buffalo.

So, what if instead of seeing Toronto as competition for the Bills we see them as partners toward the goal of keeping the franchise in the region. Sure, there would be some sacrifices required in both towns, but why couldn't we invite Toronto into Bills Country in the same way that Green Bay linked up with Milwaukee to help maintain the franchise in what is by far the NFL's smallest market?

Would the Packers still be in Green Bay without Milwaukee? Most likely not. Most likely, Milwaukee is the primary if not solitary reason The Green Bay Packers didn't go the way of the Decatur Staleys, why they are the only franchise from the era of Decatur, Canton, Akron, Rock Island, Evansville (and, did you know—the Buffalo All-Americans?) and the like.

So what would a Tor-Buff-Chester NFL franchise look like?

It would retain the name the Buffalo Bills or else would become the Toronto-Buffalo Bills, in order to preserve the "Bills" name, as well as for other obvious reasons. As the NFL moves to an 18 game schedule, Buffalo would retain the majority of the home dates, but as many as four regular season games and perhaps a majority of preseason games would be played at Rogers Centre. Buffalo's season ticket rates would be available for games in Toronto as well as Buffalo. In other words a full-season two-venue package would cost no more than it costs in Buffalo, and would be available to fans all over the mega-region. There could also be Buffalo only and Toronto only packages for those who want them.

For the long term, a state of the art stadium could be constructed in Canada but closer to Buffalo than Toronto—perhaps in St. Catherines, in order to keep the venue within a reasonable drive for Rochester fans, and fans from the Southern Tier who are also a significant contingent.

Certainly, from a Buffalo fan's perspective at least, the ideal future would be for the Bills to play all their games in Western New York, either in the Ralph or a new stadium to be constructed downtown, perhaps, as part of the waterfront renaissance. That should still be plan A. But Buffalo would benefit from having a serious Plan B as well, to preserve the Bills for the region more broadly defined, if not for Greater Buffalo alone.