Buffalo Bills Fans: Why Toronto is Your Friend (Maybe)

The future of the Buffalo Bills is a constant topic of conversation in Bills Country, and when it's not being discussed out loud, it is more often than not in the back of the minds of those who are thinking or discussing anything having to do with the NFL in Buffalo.

In the past couple of years, a fear and resentment of Toronto has begun to develop. As the team has scheduled one, and eventually two regular season games at Rogers Centre in downtown Toronto, Bills fans are becoming extremely anxious, that this may be the beginning of a transfer of the franchise to their Canadian neighbor.

But before anyone vilifies Toronto any further, there are some facts and circumstances that require in depth consideration.

First, as we cite in a related article, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/237891-hey-buffalo-its-time-to-declare-war-on-la Buffalo may face a much more sinister and immediate threat to retaining the Bills franchise from Los Angeles than Toronto.

That being said, most of the focus of a possible move by the Bills is on Toronto, so let's look at an opposite problem in the NHL. Everyone knows that Jim Balsille, principal owner of RIM, the company that makes the Blackberry, is determined to locate a second NHL franchise in or near the Toronto market.

Most recently he's looked at Hamilton or nearby Kitchener. Hamilton's new arena is within the Sabres' sphere of influence, as designated by the NHL, and any franchise to play in that building would owe the Sabres huge compensation fees for infringement on the market. On the other hand, the proposed venue in Kitchener is outside of that protected zone, and Balsille could move the Phoenix Coyotes there with no obligation to the Sabres whatsoever.

Having another NHL team in the Golden Horseshoe or the Niagara Peninsula would undoubtedly siphon off a small but significant portion of regular Sabres' attendees. Although many of the Canadians who attend Sabres' games cheer against them, their money is just as good as those who root for the team. So if there is going to be another franchise between Toronto and Buffalo, it would almost be better for Buffalo to have them in Hamilton rather than Kitchener.

But what does this have to do with the Bills? The answer is simple.

There are many in Toronto and in the NFL front office who would like to see the NFL in Toronto. Most of those people also consider the Bills to be the most logical franchise to establish in Toronto. The Bills have a significant following in South Central Ontario, and it may be more in numbers and in enthusiasm than the Sabres' Canadian supporters/attendees. Moving another franchise or expanding to Toronto would cut into the Bills market substantially and could result in the Bills being unable to sustain themselves in Buffalo.

Therefore, just as having the Coyotes locate in Hamilton or especially Kitchener could be a fatal blow to the Sabres, having another NFL franchise located in Toronto could cut off an essential lifeline to the Bills. But if Toronto doesn't get their own franchise, will they be even more intent on getting a piece of the Bills?  

If the Bills leave Buffalo completely for Toronto, most Buffalo fans on the American side of the border will find little comfort in their geographic proximity, and will feel as if the team has abandoned them and their city.

But what if it's not an either/or situation? What if Buffalo and Toronto could join forces somehow?

We alluded to this superficially in a humor piece recently entitled, "Buffalo is the New Toronto" published at B/R. Now let's take a more serious look at what may be the best scenario for saving the Bills for Buffalo in part if not completely.

First, a little lesson in demographics. There's a former UB professor, Richard Florida, who now lives in Toronto and writes about demographic trends. He is one of the first to identify the mega-regions, what have previously been called megalopolises, as being the most relevant demographic category to study in terms of trends and economic activity.

Florida would say that mega-regions are more relevant than nations, states, provinces, or traditionally defined metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) as measured by the U.S. Department of the Census.

One of the ways Florida defines mega-regions is with the use of nighttime satellite photos. The configuration and density of lights is superior to any other criteria in mapping true economic regions.

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