Ranking the F1 Drivers Most Likely to Move on in 2015
Formula One's 2015 driver market is unlikely to match the excitement of a 2014 merry-go-round that saw two of the finest drivers on the grid, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel, leave Ferrari and Red Bull, respectively.
But it is certainly going to try.
Even with over a week until the first race of the season begins in Australia, it is relatively clear which drivers will dominate the gossip columns in the months ahead.
From Alonso and his former team-mate Kimi Raikkonen to Force India's Nico Hulkenberg, here are five drivers who could be on the move at the end of this season.
Honourable Mentions
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With the Mercedes drivers set to go head-to-head for the world championship again in 2015, the futures of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg could be up for discussion if the pair come to blows.
From a contractual perspective, Rosberg has the high ground having signed a new multi-year deal last year—Hamilton's current contract, meanwhile, is set to expire at the end of 2015—but paperwork will count for little if tensions spill over.
Should Hamilton or Rosberg behave poorly on-track, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff may be forced to carry out his threat—as reported by BBC Sport's Andrew Benson in the aftermath of their collision at Spa last year—of changing the team's driver lineup.
Elsewhere, Marcus Ericsson may come under pressure at Sauber if the Swede fails to build upon a slow and steady rookie campaign in 2014.
5. Fernando Alonso
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Ron Dennis, the McLaren chairman, is adamant that the terms of Fernando Alonso's three-year contract will not allow the two-time champion to jump ship at the end of 2015.
The former team principal told BBC Sport's Andrew Benson in January: "No McLaren driver has ever had performance clauses in his contract and that's the case with Fernando."
But as is so often the case in Formula One, where there's a will there's a way.
And if McLaren, with their new Honda power unit, fail to live up to Alonso's expectations this season in terms of both reliability and outright quality, the 33-year-old will almost certainly try to engineer his way out of the team as he looks for that third world title.
Amid the uncertainty that surrounded his future at Suzuka last year, Alonso told Sky Sports' James Galloway that his status as one of the leading drivers on the grid meant that he "can choose wherever I want to go in the moment that I want to go," a quote that hinted at a long-term plan.
If he truly can go wherever he wants, it would be negligent if Alonso didn't approach Mercedes—whose team boss, Toto Wolff, told Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t ESPN F1) the Spaniard would be a prime target—and Williams, who are set to be best of the rest this season, over a possible switch.
4. Valtteri Bottas
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Last December, F1 Racing magazine reported that Ferrari had "approached" Valtteri Bottas about a 2016 drive, with "sources" claiming the Finn had "expressed an interest in the move and agreed to talk in more detail at a later date."
The report was followed up by Bottas telling the official Formula One website at the first pre-season test: "All I know is that I want to be in the quickest car available."
That can be interpreted as either a come-and-get-me plea to rival teams or an indication of his happiness at Williams, who this year will provide the 25-year-old with the quickest car available to him.
On the back of a breakthrough 2014 campaign which saw him claim six podium finishes, however, what we can be sure of is Bottas will have no shortage of admirers in the paddock. And if he can go on to claim his maiden grand prix victory this season, his fan club will only continue to grow.
Although a move to Ferrari—as a like-for-like replacement for Kimi Raikkonen—would make sense, a switch to Mercedes to join his mentor and former Williams colleague Toto Wolff cannot be ruled out.
Bottas may well turn out to be the biggest mover in 2015.
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3. Kimi Raikkonen
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After Jenson Button had to contend with speculation about his future in 2014, it will be Kimi Raikkonen's turn to dodge the R-word this year.
The two-year deal that Raikkonen signed with Ferrari in September '13 will expire at the end of 2015, by which point the Finnish driver will be 36 and closer than ever to retirement.
The 2007 world champion was quoted by Sky Sports' James Galloway as admitting an option exists to extend his contract, but it wouldn't be "the end of the world" if Ferrari opted to replace him at the end of the year.
Whether both team and driver are willing to take advantage of that option is probably dependent on how Raikkonen fares alongside Sebastian Vettel, his new team-mate.
If the former Lotus driver—who, as per BBC Sport's Andrew Benson, has referred to Ferrari's new car as "completely different" to the 2014 machine—can re-emerge as a major force in F1 and fight for podiums and victories, the chances of Raikkonen staying will increase significantly.
If, however, he lives in Vettel's shadow or fails to improve on a horrendous 2014 campaign, Raikkonen will probably bring an end to his career and walk away himself.
It is, at the time of writing, unclear just which way it will go, but Raikkonen arguably holds the key to this year's driver market, and his potential retirement is likely to become a recurring theme of 2015.
2. Nico Hulkenberg
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Nico Hulkenberg is a rarity in Formula One's midfield in the sense that he brings no real sponsorship funds to his team.
And that could prove to be the talented German's downfall in 2015 as the independent teams fight for survival.
Bob Fernley, Force India's deputy team principal, recently admitted to Sky Sports' Pete Gill that "cash-flow issues" were behind the late introduction of their new car.
Meanwhile, Mercedes test driver Pascal Wehrlein drove the team's 2014 car in the second pre-season test only days after Motorsport.com reported Force India were willing to run the German as a means of compensating for unpaid engine bills.
Force India's power unit deal with Mercedes won't be cheap, nor will their use of Toyota's wind tunnel—which will surely require the team, who were more vocal than anyone when Marussia and Caterham were sidelined at the end of last year, to bring in some extra cash.
That would make Hulkenberg—who lost his Williams drive to Pastor Maldonado for 2011 due to lack of sponsorship, as per Crash.net—vulnerable to pay drivers and the likes of Wehrlein, whose links to Force India's engine supplier could pay dividends.
Motorsport rejoiced last November when it was announced Hulkenberg would be combining his Force India commitments with a Le Mans 24 Hours assault in 2015, but the 27-year-old could have a full-time job with Porsche's endurance team sooner than later.
1. Carlos Sainz Jr.
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As the reigning champion of Formula Renault 3.5, a series previously won by Robert Kubica and Kevin Magnussen, Carlos Sainz Jr. is certainly worthy of his place on the Formula One grid.
But how long he remains in the sport is probably dependent on how his team-mate, a fellow rookie, fares this season.
Should Max Verstappen, the teenage sensation, live up to the hype and instantly emerge as a future world champion, there will be little reason for Red Bull to keep Sainz at Toro Rosso—a team notorious for dumping drivers without the required star quality—beyond this year.
After all, what hope will there be for a racing driver who can't even beat a 17-year-old kid who's only going to get better?
Yet if the Spaniard, the son of former rally champion Carlos Sainz, manages to beat Verstappen in 2015, the 20-year-old could set himself up for a long F1 career and even jump ahead of the Dutchman in the queue for a future seat at Red Bull Racing, the four-time constructors' champions.
On the eve of the season, however, that seems unlikely, and Sainz Jr. could find himself in danger if Verstappen, who will become the youngest-ever driver to start a grand prix in Australia, makes a seamless transition to F1.
The Red Bull Junior Team's 2015 members—Pierre Gasly (GP2), Dean Stoneman (Formula Renault 3.5) and Callum Ilott (Formula Three)—will be waiting in the wings with interest if Sainz Jr. fails to do likewise.
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