10 Fantasy Baseball Draft Tips After 1st Week of 2015 Spring Action
Baseball has finally returned. With actual games—albeit ones that don't count—in the books, it's time for fantasy baseball players to buckle down for draft day.
While spring training shouldn't drastically change anybody's predraft outlook, ignoring the exhibition clashes altogether is also ill-advised. If you're searching for the right things, March happenings can help in small doses.
The MLB season remains around a month away, but draft season kicks into high gear after a week of spring training action. For those searching for some guidance, here are tips consisting of general advice and focused policies on what's worth watching in spring.
Observe but Don't Overreact
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This is usually the spot where I say, "Spring training doesn't matter." Not true. As long as you put the results into perspective, there are trends worth tracking.
Prospects and stars returning from injury are especially worth monitoring. While batting average and ERA mean little in such a small sample size, plate discipline and pitcher velocity hold a bit more merit.
Last seen in 2013, Matt Harvey successfully returned on Friday to weave two perfect innings. Considering he missed all of last year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, it's notable that he threw as hard as 99 mph and brandished full control of all his offerings.
Anyone who didn't view him as a top-25 starter should adjust. Innings restrictions aside, 180 magical innings from the ace is worth rolling the dice over Julio Teheran. For someone like me who initially placed him high at No. 16, don't go overboard. At most, he'll leapfrog Adam Wainwright into my top 15.
Along with Harvey, Masahiro Tanaka and Cliff Lee are potential bounce-back aces if healthy. Before committing to their cause, make sure they're throwing hard and commanding the strike zone during tune-up games.
Avoid Confirmation Biases
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Reacting rationally to spring stats sounds easy. Then you see something that confirms your pre-existing thought and gloat about this proving you right.
Anybody concerned about Madison Bumgarner pitching 270 innings last year probably yelled, "See? I told you so!" when he labored though a rough start against the Oakland Athletics.
Maybe it was a byproduct of last year's hefty workload. More likely, however, that outing alone means nothing. Five outs is a microscopic sample size, especially for an established ace with a career 3.06 ERA.
"Right now I'm not worried whether I strike out everybody or give up three or four runs or whatever it was," Bumgarner told the San Jose Mercury News' Andrew Baggarly. "It's about getting your body back in the rhythm of competing and throwing pitches and getting back in the swing of things."
This isn't meant as a Bumgarner endorsement. In fact, I'm using him as a case study because I like him less than the consensus this season, even if that means he's a top-10 starter rather than a top-five linchpin.
Yet I'm not moving him down any further, because I wouldn't bat an eye at Corey Kluber or Stephen Strasburg allowing a few run in a spring start. Don't let inconclusive results lead your argument.
Take “Best Shape of My Life” Stories with Grain of Salt
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A training-camp stable in any sport, stories always materialize about a player reporting in "the best shape of his life." Suckers for second chances and clean slates, we all can't help but bite into the narrative.
Most baseball players are in excellent shape. It's part of an athlete's job description to stay physically fit. Adopting a healthier lifestyle is fantastic, but it's doesn't guarantee enhanced results on the diamond.
Swearing off gluten, sugar and dairy during the offseason, Mark Teixeira is eyeing a return to 30 homers and 100 RBI. Trading fat for leaner muscle is great for the slugger, but he's still a 34-year-old who has played 261 games over the past three years. Last year, he posted career lows across the board with a .216/.313/.398 slash line.
The diet alterations may help, but a .250, 25-homer season over 135 games remains a bubbly optimistic projection. In standard mixed leagues, the former stud remains no more than a cheap corner infielder or late-round flier.
Jesus Montero appears a significantly slimmer man, generating hope that the 25-year-old can turn his disappointing career around. He still faces an uphill battle just to make the Seattle Mariners' Opening Day roster, so don't get carried away over his transformation.
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Don't Draft Too Early
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Hunter Pence participated in all but four games over the last four years. According to ESPN Stats & Info, nobody else played every game during the past two seasons.
After getting hit by a pitch during Thursday's spring training game, the San Francisco Giants outfielder is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks with a forearm fracture.
Make no mistake: Injuries will occur throughout the season, plaguing fantasy managers at the most inopportune times. Trips to the disabled list will sink many fantasy seasons, so don't cry for those who already drafted Pence.
Those poor souls, however, could have avoided a completely unpredictable and random hindrance by waiting longer to select their squads. That's why everyone should hold off on drafting as close to Opening Day as possible.
A later day may not work for everyone else, but don't bump up the date out of eagerness or boredom. Practicing patience gives all participants a chance to procure more information regarding injuries and position battles.
Keep Tabs on Position Battles
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Any drafter's most important spring task is to stay abreast of the biggest position battles. There's nothing more embarrassing than having your leaguemates inform you the sleeper you grabbed in the 10th round is stuck on the bench or minors.
Here's a look at the biggest job jousts to follow.
Pirates SS: Jung Ho Kang vs. Jordy Mercer
Jung Ho Kang arrived in style, crushing an opposite-field home run during his spring debut. Jordy Mercer is an OK fantasy middle infielder who can beat the Korean newcomer on the strength of his glove. Yet Kang's alluring power upside deserves a closer look.
Cubs 3B: Kris Bryant vs. Someone Not Nearly as Good as Kris Bryant
Kris Bryant looks relegated to starting the season in the minors so the Chicago Cubs can buy an extra year of service time. It's actually good news for drafters who want the mega prospect, whose price would soar astronomically if named the Opening Day starter.
Expect the young third baseman to arrive around mid-to-late April. Think George Springer last year. As a placeholder, Mike Olt wouldn't warrant attention in standard leagues, but Bryant boasts a superstar ceiling.
Red Sox CF/RF: Mookie Betts vs. Shane Victorino vs. Rusney Castillo
The Mookie Betts bandwagon hit a pothole when Boston Red Sox manager John Farrell tabbed Shane Victorino as his starting right fielder. Yet the story took another turn when Rusney Castillo suffered an oblique strain, giving Betts another chance to snag a starting gig.
Everyone should be rooting for the 22-year-old budding star, who is far too good to get benched or demoted after hitting .291/.368/.444 in 52 MLB games. He flashed five-category upside with five homers and seven steals.
Castillo's ailment is not considered serious, so it's still possible the Cuban signee will be ready for Opening Day. In a perfect world, Boston trades Victorino before April, giving all three outfielders a chance.
Blues Jays Closer: Brett Cecil vs. Aaron Sanchez vs. Field
The Blue Jays have yet to reveal their plans for replacing Casey Janssen in the ninth inning. If they settle on one of two candidates, the winner could make a huge impact.
Despite his control woes, Brett Cecil's 2.70 ERA and 12.83 K/9 rate make him a logical choice. After two dominant years as Toronto's setup man, he'd serve as a great No. 2 or 3 fantasy stopper. However, a sore shoulder, as reported by MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm, could derail his opportunity.
Or the team could stick a young starter in the role. Aaron Sanchez, who is vying for a rotation spot, issued a 1.09 ERA through 33 innings from the bullpen last year. Daniel Norris is also a long shot, but he will likely either start for the Blue Jays or in Triple-A.
Keep Researching
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Rankings are not meant to stay stagnant, so keep plugging away until the day of reckoning arrives.
Keep digging, and you'll likely unearth more data to sculpt your ranks. Perhaps another analyst's insight will sway your line of thinking. You'll never know if you consider the job done once the cheat sheets are assembled.
While poring through fantasy baseball numbers to avoid writing this fantasy baseball article, I found myself dwelling on FanGraphs' swinging-strike percentage leaderboard. The stat's utility is simple: Pitchers who generate more missed swings will procure more strikeouts. Fantasy gamers want high-strikeout hurlers.
Eighth on the list, sandwiched between Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, is Ervin Santana. Along with an 11.7 swinging-strike percentage, he notched a 3.39 fielding independent pitching (FIP), a form of ERA that neutralizes defense, also via FanGraphs.
Switching from the National League to the American League stinks, but the spacious Target Field makes the Minnesota Twins a nice landing spot for Santana. Seemingly an afterthought, he is actually a nice late-value pick, particularly in deeper formats.
At first I saw a veteran with a 3.95 ERA and a strikeout rate above career norms, but upon further review, he earned those punchouts.
Practice Makes Perfect
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Those with time to kill before draft day should use it wisely, and there's no better preparation than a mock draft.
All the major sites host several mock drafts, allowing users to join one at their convenience and discard it afterword. Practicing is the best way to test out your rankings, as your gut reaction may reveal some necessary changes.
It will also shed light on players to target for the real thing. In my practice runs, including the one I analyzed last week, Hisashi Iwakuma often fell into my lap as my second starting pitcher. David Ortiz has also become a frequent fifth- or sixth-round selection.
The biggest flaw in those mock drafts is apathy among other drafters, who often ditch the room after a few rounds. Mock drafts are most helpful in the later rounds, but only if active competitors provide a challenge. And, of course, normal people with lives outside of fantasy baseball don't always have time for multiple mocks.
In that case, try out FantasyPros' draft wizard, a customizable draft portal that allows gamers to draft against expert rankings and/or average draft positions from a selection of sites. Those in keeper leagues can also add their protects before drafting.
Drafting against intelligent auto teams provides a quick but useful exercise. In the time it takes to complete one normal mock draft, you can knock 10 simulations out on the draft wizard. Once a real thing rolls around, you'll already be a fine-tuned drafting machine with a good grasp on everyone's market price.
Study Your League's Trends
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Most rankings and analysis across the Web are tailored for standard mixed leagues. It makes sense to target the widest demographic possible, but plenty of bold gamers engage in more intricate formats.
I don't know your specific league, so it's your duty to know it inside and out. Find out what it takes to win while searching for points of emphasis to attack.
For those returning to an existing league, study previous years' standings. In rotisserie leagues, note the stats needed to finish prominently in every category. Your draft will flow much smoother if you enter wanting 250 home runs and 150 steals.
If prior draft results are handy, examine those as well. Did everyone catch up to shunning top closers, manifesting them into potential bargains rather than overpays? Did players with minor injuries deliver huge returns after falling too far?
In one of my leagues, I discovered a reluctance to drafting damaged goods. Cole Hamels went in Round 11 last year, and he threw 204.2 high-quality innings despite delaying his debut to late April. I stole Aroldis Chapman in the 18th round, securing his 106 strikeouts because a line drive hit him in the face during spring.
That knowledge has me intrigued about Pence, Chris Sale, Kenley Jansen and Garrett Richards. There's bound to be a market inefficiency in your league.
Auction?
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There's no need for a flame war between snake drafts and auctions. Hey, why not do both?
The typical fantasy participant goes the standard snake route, so consider trying an auction on for size this spring. Although it's a deeper commitment in terms of time and preparation, an owner holds more autonomy over his or her squad, receiving a fair shake at every player.
Want Paul Goldschmidt? Great. Unfortunately, you pick No. 8 in the snake, and the guy picking No. 6 wanted the first baseman. No Goldschmidt for you. In an auction, you can outbid everyone else for anyone you please.
Yahoo Sports' Scott Pianowski detailed the case for auctions:
"In the draft world, often you'll target a few players in a tier and take the one that lasts to your pick. Wow, that's thrilling and exciting. You're basically taking the last donut at the company breakfast. In an auction, you have more control over the pace, the flow, the roster construction. You also have more say in messing up an opponent - any opponent you wish. Why play checkers when the chess set is ready to go.
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I won't look down on snake drafts. It's quick and fun, and while there may be less strategy, it does involve skill to master. Yet after partaking in an auction last year after a long hiatus, I'm itching to do another one this month.
Create Your Own Path
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Sticking out from the herd will create feelings of doubt and vulnerability, but sticking to someone else's script won't yield a fantasy championship.
Fortune favors the bold, so long as those risks are calculated and spread out rather than routine. Trust your rankings, even if they waver drastically from the host's default designations.
ESPN ranks Matt Shoemaker as its No. 82 starting pitcher, but he's a top-50 option in my mind. A few pots begin at No. 88, and Drew Hutchison is at least 20 spots too low for my taste. Meanwhile, No. 38-ranked Doug Fister won't sniff my top 50.
Rather than blush at my zealousness and fall in line, I'm going to pounce on Shoemaker and Hutchison and happily watch Fister go elsewhere. Resist the inclination to conform and instead march to the beat of your own drummer.
If a large consensus shares an opposing opinion, take a deeper look to see if you're missing something. If so, adapt. If not, to heck with them. It's your team.
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