Tennessee Football: Realistic Expectations for Butch Jones in 2015
It's difficult to turn on a television or radio station discussing the 2015 Southeastern Conference football season without hearing about the Tennessee Volunteers.
Everybody is talking about the talent head coach Butch Jones has stockpiled through exceptional recruiting the past two-plus seasons. There are budding skill-position stars in place, developing depth and the lines of scrimmage are improving.
Jones can feel the spotlight swinging back toward Rocky Top, and how UT handles the heat will go a long way toward determining the fate of the season.
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Are the Vols built to win right now? Are there still hurdles to get over for a young team expected to start beating better teams all the while charged with playing a difficult schedule?
The pressure cooker is about to intensify, and while Jones knows it, he told GoVols247's Wes Rucker last week the biggest expectations come from much closer than the national media: "The internal expectations that I have for myself, for our football program, for how we need to build this, those will never be higher than my expectations. I put a lot of pressure on myself. Well ... not pressure, but expectations upon myself and my staff, and I know the staff feels the same way."
So, cutting through all the buzz and getting down to reality, what are some things that should happen this season for Tennessee to take another step forward? How can this palpable excitement surrounding the program continue to build?
Moving forward, Tennessee's success will be defined more by results than development, so it's key this year that the Vols' improvement on the field can be quantified by more wins.
That's the cost of high expectations.
Here are some sensible goals for Jones and the Vols as they inch closer to spring practice and onward toward the 2015 season.
Recruiting Wins Need to Translate into Win Column
Before getting to the schedule, it's important to first take a look at Tennessee's returning roster.
Yes, this is still a young team, and it may shape up to be one of the youngest in the nation a season removed from playing 25 true and redshirt freshmen. But it's extremely talented.
A study of star rankings for the players currently on the roster shows the talent heavily weighted toward the past two classes. That means most of the players expected to be stars are still going to be freshmen and sophomores.
It also means that the next couple of years could be extremely fun for UT fans.
| 2011 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 2012 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 2013 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| 2014 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| 2015 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 1 |
But nobody is thinking about 2016 right now.
After the Vols rode a 4-1 finish to earn their first winning record since 2009 and capped the year with a dominant TaxSlayer Bowl victory over Iowa, results are expected now.
So, even though most of the talent on UT's roster is in the form of underclassmen, the sure sign of a payoff would be to upset a quality opponent.
Last year, Tennessee beat decent teams such as South Carolina and Iowa down the stretch, but its other wins came against Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. That's not exactly a murderer's row.
The Vols lost by 24 to Oklahoma, three to Georgia, one to Florida, 31 to Ole Miss, 14 to Alabama and eight to Missouri. Turning just one of those losses into a win would have changed the program's trajectory, and that needs to happen this season.
Nobody will be predicting the Vols to upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but there are several other opportunities to knock off good teams:
- Oklahoma returns the trip to Knoxville, and the Vols are a much different team than the one that couldn't block the Sooners in Norman last year.
- Again, this looks like UT's best opportunity to beat Florida for the first time in 10 years, even if the Vols must travel to the Swamp. Most UT fans will have to see it to believe it.
- Tennessee gets a tough West draw in Arkansas, as the Hogs come to Knoxville on Oct. 3 along with their dominant running game.
- The very next week, Georgia will bring a similar star-studded rushing attack with a green quarterback into Knoxville. The past four years, UGA has beaten the Vols by eight points or fewer.
- Tennessee must travel to Missouri, and it gets South Carolina at home. Neither of those games will be easy, and both present opportunities to get what could be pivotal wins.
Even Alabama doesn't appear to be an insurmountable task with all the talent the Tide have to replace.
Jones has recruited well, but all those star rankings mean nothing if they don't equal wins. If UT is going to take a palpable step forward, it needs to beat better teams.
Improvement on Both Sides of the Ball
The strides Tennessee made offensively during the second half of 2014 were immense as the Vols found a leader in quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who did things former starter Justin Worley simply couldn't.
But lost in the excitement of the Vols getting bowl-eligible is the fact that most of that strong work, as already discussed, came against less-than-stellar competition.
| Games Dobbs participated in | 4-2 | 423.5 | 34.2 | 13 |
| Games Dobbs didn't participate in | 3-4 | 325.1 | 24.4 | 30 |
The next step for UT's offense under new coordinator Mike DeBord is replicating all that second-half success against the toughest teams on the schedule.
That's why Dobbs has to take some large leaps in development. Already as the statistics show, UT was much better with him behind center. It's just going to be interesting to see how that translates against the league's best.
He'll have much more help this year. Not only do the Vols return star sophomore Jalen Hurd at running back, but UT snagged highly regarded JUCO transfer Alvin Kamara to run the ball, too.
With a wide receiving corps that suffered an unbelievable amount of injuries last year getting healthier, according to GoVols247's Rucker, Dobbs will have plenty of weapons at his disposal.
The biggest key for UT is getting improvement from its porous offensive line. A season of playing together and another year in the weight room should help, but the Vols have serious holes to fill, and they must get better quickly or it won't matter how many playmakers they've got.
Defensively, the improvements the Vols made from 2013 to 2014 were immense across the board. Coordinator John Jancek's unit carried the team at times, and displaying a propensity to get to the quarterback, they were able to wreak havoc on most of their opponents.
| Scoring Defense | 34 | 79 |
| Rush Defense | 67 | 101 |
| Pass Defense | 23 | 27 |
| Total Defense | 37 | 84 |
| Sacks | 27 | 101 |
| Third-Down Defense | 16 | 92 |
UT must only replace middle linebacker A.J. Johnson, nickelback Justin Coleman and defensive tackle Jordan Williams from the rotation.
With the addition of bulk in the middle of the defensive line with Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle, UT should be able to boost its rush defense numbers.
If so, it would be a surprise if Tennessee didn't improve again. The Vols have talent all over the field on defense, and if those guys grow up, it could be a big season.
The development of players under Jones and his staff has been promising. Guys such as Coleman, Williams and LaDarrell McNeil struggled under the previous regime before resurrecting their careers.
If the maturation continues, the Vols could be one of the best defensive teams in the league. A realistic expectation would be to see those green youngsters grow up and become all-conference-caliber players.
Compete for the SEC East
Finally, it's not ludicrous to think the Vols should compete for the spot representing the East Division in the SEC Championship Game.
It's set up for somebody to take charge.
Yes, there are question marks, but who doesn't have them in the division?
Missouri has won back-to-back division titles, but the Tigers did so with offensive struggles last season. Now they have to find other pass-rushers with Shane Ray and Markus Golden heading to the NFL.
Georgia has to replace its starting quarterback as well as its two leading receivers (Chris Conley and Michael Bennett). The Bulldogs also will miss two starting linebackers and three defensive linemen.
South Carolina is riddled with question marks all over the field, and Florida must replace Dante Fowler Jr., as well as fill major holes on offense as it starts the Jim McElwain era.
Kentucky is improving as a program, but UT hung 50 on the Wildcats last year.
So, in other words, the East is there for the taking, and the national media (such as ESPN.com's KC Joyner) realize UT could have what it takes to capture it. Sure there are reasons why they won't, but it's been a long time since the Vols were even in the conversation.
The Vols have power. They have speed. They have talent at the skill positions. They have depth (even if it's unproven) on the lines.
All of the elements are there.
If Dobbs can make the leap from toolsy signal-caller to a quarterback who can make key plays against quality competition, and if the Vols can find five dependable offensive linemen and find some run-stuffers on the defensive line and at middle linebacker, they could take the next step.
Then, UT could return to its form of competing for championships for the first time in more than a decade.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports composite rankings unless otherwise noted. All statistics gathered from CFBStats.com, unless otherwise noted.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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