Indianapolis Colts Final Free-Agency Outlook and Predictions
Well, you can say this about Indianapolis Colts general manager Ryan Grigson: He's never boring.
With $41 million in cap space for 2015, the Colts are primed for another roller-coaster ride in free agency this offseason. It's the third consecutive offseason that the Colts will be major players, and while it's maddening for fans who believe that building through free agency is fool's gold, it definitely makes for a more entertaining spring.
Free agency officially opens up on March 10, with official bargaining times beginning on March 7. From Saturday to next Tuesday, teams can talk to pending free agents but can't officially sign any new contracts until 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
So, as the free-agency frenzy grows ever-nearer, what seems like the most likely outcome for Indianapolis in Grigson's third open-wallet chance at free agency?
Mike Adams and Darius Butler Will Be Re-Signed
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First and foremost are the re-signings. The Colts have 14 unrestricted free agents this year, along with six restricted free agents eligible for tenders.
A number of these players are likely to return in 2015, with veterans Mike Adams and Darius Butler being my predictions to return to help solidify the defensive backfield.
Mike Adams is one of the Colts' top priorities of the offseason, reports Kevin Bowen of Colts.com, and Adams reciprocates that feeling, per Mike Wells of ESPN.com. Whenever a June signing turns into a Pro Bowler and is likely going to be available for cheap once more, it's a no-brainer.
Darius Butler is a little more questionable. He has been a solid slot corner for the Colts over the last two years, having revamped his career in Indianapolis. But he doesn't play outside very well, making him a limited depth corner. If the Colts wanted to upgrade his spot with somebody like, say, Kareem Jackson, it would be a noticeable change.
But I don't see the Colts spending a large amount of money on a cornerback when there are other holes to fill, and Butler is the best value option to fill the spot for 2015.
Other Colts likely to return include linebacker Jerrell Freeman (likely a second-round tender), running back Dan Herron, long snapper Matt Overton and offensive lineman Joe Reitz. The rest seem to be on the fence at the moment, whether it be due to potential retirement (Reggie Wayne, Cory Redding) or the potential ability to improve at the position (Hakeem Nicks).
The Colts Will Pass on a High-Profile Safety
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There is no question that safety is one of the Colts' biggest holes. Prior to Ricky Jean Francois' release, it likely was priority No. 1 for Indianapolis.
But despite the need, my prediction is that the Colts will pass on one of the big-name safeties in this free-agent class. The class really has only two certainties: New England's Devin McCourty and Denver's Rahim Moore.
Don't get me wrong, I think the Colts absolutely should go after one of the two safeties, particularly McCourty. But what I think the Colts should do and what I think will actually happen are two different things.
If McCourty and Moore both hit the open market, which seems certain for Moore and less so for McCourty, it basically comes down to money for me. The Colts have had opportunities to spend big money on young safeties before and have opted to pass for lesser players.
With there being several teams with bucketfuls of cash to burn this offseason, it's hard to imagine the Colts ponying up top dollar for a safety. Defensive front seven, wide receiver or offensive line? That seems a little more likely.
But with the Colts' recent history of getting production from undrafted free agents and off-the-street signings (Delano Howell, Sergio Brown, Adams) versus the bust that was LaRon Landry, the Colts might be a little wary of spending top dollar on a safety.
Pernell McPhee Will Be the Next Ex-Raven in Indianapolis
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While there are a number of questions regarding McPhee's value relative to the massive contract he'll likely receive, there are simply too many factors here to give any team outside of Indianapolis the edge in signing him.
The Colts need a pass-rusher, and they need help on the defensive line. McPhee can play both outside linebacker/edge-rusher as well as interior lineman in the Colts' hybrid scheme, and he's been a very effective pass-rusher at times from both spots.
The Colts also have the money to give McPhee an overpriced contract, much like they did with Arthur Jones last season.
But perhaps most importantly, the Colts have Chuck Pagano, who coached McPhee in his rookie year in 2011. Pagano had McPhee playing both tackle and defensive end in his 3-4 hybrid scheme that year in Baltimore, and he knows just how devastating a weapon he can be. McPhee finished that season with a positive-20.3 grade from Pro Football Focus.
Again, the deal gives me pause because it is so similar to the deals that have flamed out over the last two years. Deals for players like Gosder Cherilus, Jean Francois and Jones have not panned out yet for Indianapolis, and McPhee is a similar risk.
But with all the factors—and the rumors from CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora that the Colts will be "very involved" in McPhee's free agency—it seems inevitable.
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No Big Spending on a Running Back
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While McPhee is one potential rumor that the Colts have been involved in, the team has also been rumored to be a potential landing spot for several big-name backs.
For example, Adrian Peterson's dad said the Colts were among the teams he'd heard were inquiring about trading for Peterson, per Chris Wesseling of NFL.com. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network listed the Colts as a potential suitor for DeMarco Murray, while Wesseling added the Colts are "a virtual lock" to grab a running back this offseason.
On one hand, this makes sense. The Colts probably are a virtual lock to add a running back.
But Peterson or Murray? After how the Colts' last attempt to spend valuable assets on a running back worked out, I'd expect the team to go after a cheaper option.
Think about somebody like Frank Gore, who the Colts were linked to by Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, or C.J. Spiller. The Colts could draft a running back in the 2015 draft as well, given the depth and value available, but a veteran back on a short-term deal to help ease the transition would be an ideal situation.
More Cuts to Come
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The Colts have already made waves this offseason with the release of starters Ricky Jean Francois and LaRon Landry, but expect more cuts to come.
Look at this list of veterans who could potentially save the Colts money in 2015:
- OG Donald Thomas, save $3.25 million
- RB Trent Richardson, $3.18 million
- CB Greg Toler, $5.5 million
- LB Erik Walden, $3.75 million
- LB D'Qwell Jackson, $5 million
Of those, I'd consider Thomas and Richardson as likely cuts at this point.
Thomas has missed all of the last two years with injuries, tearing his quad twice as well as his bicep. The likelihood of him being able to contribute in 2015 is simply not high enough to justify the cap hit.
As for Richardson, I'd imagine that the only thing holding up a potential release now is the matter of his contract. His suspension at the end of the season voided the guarantees in his contract, but it was something that would likely be appealed. There is no future for him in Indianapolis, the only question is when he will officially be released.
One More Big Move?
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Something big is coming.
Maybe it's just the McPhee deal, but I think there's something more.
You don't need $41 million in cap space for one not-completely-proven defensive lineman.
Maybe it's storing away money in case Ndamukong Suh hits the open market. Maybe I'm wrong about a potential McCourty deal (please let this be true) or a potential Murray deal (I hope not). Maybe a Brandon Marshall trade is going to happen.
Maybe the team will extend Andrew Luck and frontload his deal for more flexibility down the road.
I don't know exactly what it is, but splash moves are coming. The Colts are going to be aggressive, and they are going to draw attention. For what exactly that might be, we'll just have to wait and see.
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